Did Plug Power’s (PLUG) First NASA Hydrogen Deal Just Shift Its Investment Narrative?

• Earlier this month, Plug Power announced it began its first-ever liquid hydrogen supply contract with NASA, a US$2.8 million agreement to deliver up to 218,000 kilograms of liquid hydrogen to two Ohio research and test facilities using its own production network and transport fleet.
• This initial NASA award highlights Plug Power’s ability to meet rigorous aerospace performance and purity standards, potentially opening higher-specification markets beyond its traditional material handling and industrial customers.
• We’ll now examine how entering NASA’s hydrogen supply chain could influence Plug Power’s investment narrative, including growth prospects and risk profile.

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Plug Power Investment Narrative Recap

To own Plug Power, you have to believe its vertically integrated hydrogen network can eventually scale to profitable, higher value markets despite ongoing losses, cash burn and heavy reliance on policy support. The new NASA liquid hydrogen contract is symbolically important as proof of technical capability, but at US$2.8 million it is not large enough to materially change the near term profitability and liquidity risk that dominates Plug’s story right now.

The NASA award lines up most directly with Plug’s push to expand its U.S. hydrogen production and distribution footprint, including plants like the Georgia Green Hydrogen facility that underpin its supply reliability pitch. Together, these efforts support the core catalyst of turning a growing project and customer pipeline into sustainable, margin improving fuel and equipment sales, while still leaving questions about whether the company can reach meaningful scale before funding and policy support become more constrained.

Yet even as Plug wins high profile work like NASA, investors should be aware that its liquidity position and need for fresh capital could...

Read the full narrative on Plug Power (it's free!)

Plug Power's narrative projects $1.2 billion revenue and $124.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires 22.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.1 billion earnings increase from -$2.0 billion today.

Uncover how Plug Power's forecasts yield a $2.79 fair value, a 23% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty two Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Plug Power range from US$1.49 to US$7.18, showing how far apart individual views can be. You can weigh those opinions against Plug’s continued negative margins and funding dependence, which together shape expectations for how well the business can eventually support its valuation.

Explore 22 other fair value estimates on Plug Power - why the stock might be worth 34% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Plug Power Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Plug Power research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Plug Power research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Plug Power's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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