Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ:LUNR) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

The investors in Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LUNR) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 31% to US$9.20 in the week following its full-year results. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at US$228m, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Intuitive Machines from seven analysts is for revenues of US$280.6m in 2025. If met, it would imply a major 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 91% to US$0.27. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$339.5m and losses of US$0.18 per share in 2025. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Intuitive Machines

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$14.86, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Intuitive Machines analyst has a price target of US$21.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$12.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Intuitive Machines' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 23% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 41% p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Intuitive Machines is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Intuitive Machines. They also downgraded Intuitive Machines' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Intuitive Machines going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Intuitive Machines has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.