Intuitive Machines Future Growth
Future criteria checks 6/6
Intuitive Machines is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 66.6% and 25.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 68% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 84.1% in 3 years.
Key information
66.6%
Earnings growth rate
68.04%
EPS growth rate
| Aerospace & Defense earnings growth | 18.9% |
| Revenue growth rate | 25.6% |
| Future return on equity | 84.09% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 15 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
New Narrative • May 16
LUNR: Establishing the Lunar Logistics Backbone via the IM-2 Mission and the Impending Inflection Point for Commercial Orbital Economies
Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR), the premier architect of lunar surface access and cislunar infrastructure, is navigating a powerful structural breakout in 2026.Seeking Alpha • May 15
Intuitive Machines Set To Launch In The Space Race
Summary Intuitive Machines is positioned for robust growth across defense, civil, and commercial space infrastructure, leveraging recent contract wins and strategic acquisitions. LUNR’s backlog surged nearly 400% to $1.055 billion in Q1 ’26, with 60-65% expected to convert to revenue by eFY26, underpinning strong operational momentum. Recent acquisitions, including Goonhilly, expand LUNR’s integrated earth-to-orbit communications capabilities, supporting its role in NASA’s Artemis and emerging satellite data center markets. I recommend LUNR shares with a buy rating and a $38.81 price target, reflecting a 5.86x eFY28 price/sales multiple, despite a modest valuation premium. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 03
LUNR: Lunar Contracts And Funding Will Support Recurring Moon Infrastructure Revenue
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Intuitive Machines to $35 from $26, citing updated models that reflect higher revenue growth assumptions, slightly better projected profit margins, a higher future P/E, and a modestly lower discount rate that aligns with the recent series of price target increases across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research shows a cluster of bullish analysts lifting price targets and refining models for Intuitive Machines, with several reports concentrating on higher revenue assumptions, improved margin potential, and a larger opportunity set in lunar infrastructure and services.
New Narrative • Apr 24
Strategic Expansion Meets Valuation Reality at $23
Balancing High-Growth Potential with Capital Dilution Intuitive Machines (LUNR) has successfully shifted from a high-risk startup to a Lunar Infrastructure Prime, backed by a $943M backlog and a strategic pivot toward high-margin data services via the Lanteris acquisition. While the trajectory toward positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 is clear, the current stock price reflects a "perfection premium" that overlooks recent share dilution.
Narrative Update • Apr 18
LUNR: Future Lunar Contracts And Ongoing Equity Dilution Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have lifted their average price target for Intuitive Machines by roughly $10 to align with a fair value estimate of about $12.09 per share, citing higher revenue and margin assumptions supported by a wave of recent target increases from firms across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research around Intuitive Machines has centered on how its lunar infrastructure plans and related services could support future revenue and earnings, with several firms updating price targets and estimates in recent months.Narrative Update • Apr 04
LUNR: Lunar Contract Uncertainty And Equity Dilution Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have lifted the implied fair value for Intuitive Machines by about $2.27 per share to $12.86, reflecting a series of recent target price increases and higher estimates that lean on stronger revenue expectations, a slightly lower discount rate, and updated long term P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Intuitive Machines centers on updated price targets, revised estimates, and views on the company’s shifting business mix toward recurring revenue opportunities tied to lunar infrastructure, communications, and mobility services.
Narrative Update • Mar 21
LUNR: Lunar Commercialization And New Capital Raise Will Drive Future Contracts
Analysts have raised the base price target for Intuitive Machines from $15.50 to about $22.28, citing higher revenue and margin assumptions, reduced risk estimates, and an increased future P/E multiple influenced by recent upward price target revisions and estimate updates across several firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Intuitive Machines has become more active, with several firms updating price targets and estimates and revisiting their views on the company’s growth path and risk profile.Narrative Update • Mar 05
LUNR: Lunar Commercialization Funding Will Support Shift To Recurring Revenue
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Intuitive Machines at $26.00 while making slight adjustments to underlying assumptions. They point to recent price target changes in the $16.00 to $25.00 range and cite confidence in lunar commercialization, new funding flexibility, and the potential for upcoming NASA contract decisions.Narrative Update • Feb 19
LUNR: Lunar Services And Recurring Revenue Shift Will Support Next Space Prime
The Street’s average price target for Intuitive Machines has moved higher by several dollars into the low to mid $20s, as analysts point to a larger addressable lunar services market, the company’s Near Space Network and Moon RACER offerings, and a gradual shift toward more recurring revenue as key supports for the new targets. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing Intuitive Machines as a key beneficiary of growing interest in commercial and government lunar activity, and recent research updates cluster around price targets in the low to mid US$20s.Narrative Update • Feb 05
LUNR: Recurring Revenue Shift Will Drive Next Generation Space Prime Positioning
Analysts have lifted their implied fair value for Intuitive Machines from $20.00 to $26.00, as recent price target increases and commentary highlight both growing interest in its shift toward more recurring revenue and a mixed but engaged view of contract-related risks around upcoming NASA awards. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Intuitive Machines reflects a mix of enthusiasm for the business model pivot and caution around contract outcomes, especially NASA programs.Narrative Update • Jan 22
LUNR: Political Uncertainty Around Lunar Contract Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Intuitive Machines higher to $10.60. This reflects recent increases in Street price targets to a range of $9.50 to $25 and growing focus on the company's push toward more recurring revenue and potential contract wins, despite political and award timing risks.Analysis Article • Jan 14
Revenues Tell The Story For Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ:LUNR) As Its Stock Soars 47%
Intuitive Machines, Inc. ( NASDAQ:LUNR ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great...Narrative Update • Jan 07
LUNR: Recurring Revenue Shift And Lanteris Integration Will Define Consolidation Outcomes
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Intuitive Machines from US$18.50 to US$20.00, citing higher modeled revenue growth, a lower future P/E multiple of 53.61, and recent research that highlights the shift toward recurring revenue and expanded contracting opportunities after the Lanteris acquisition. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts frame Intuitive Machines as a company in the middle of an important shift, with growing attention on recurring revenue, scale, and its potential role in future space programs.Narrative Update • Dec 14
LUNR: Execution Risks And Space Consolidation Wave Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have nudged their average price target for Intuitive Machines higher, from about $8.83 to roughly $10.33, citing stronger long term revenue growth expectations following the Lanteris acquisition and industry consolidation tailwinds, even as they temper profit margin and valuation assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts acknowledge that Intuitive Machines is positioned to benefit from growing demand in the space sector, but they continue to frame the stock as a high execution risk story with limited valuation support at current levels.Narrative Update • Nov 30
LUNR: Recent Acquisition Will Drive New Contract Wins Across Key Sectors
Analysts have nudged up their fair value estimate for Intuitive Machines to $15.50 from $15.38. This change reflects an improved revenue growth outlook and heightened opportunities resulting from recent industry consolidation and strategic acquisitions.Analysis Article • Nov 26
Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LUNR) 27% Cheaper Price Remains In Tune With Revenues
Intuitive Machines, Inc. ( NASDAQ:LUNR ) shares have retraced a considerable 27% in the last month, reversing a fair...Narrative Update • Nov 16
LUNR: Expanding Service Offerings Will Drive Contract Opportunities And Sector Confidence
Analysts have modestly decreased their fair value estimate for Intuitive Machines from $15.43 to $15.38. This adjustment is attributed to tempered revenue forecasts and project timing, even though management has taken steps to expand contract opportunities and strengthen the company's financial position.Narrative Update • Nov 01
LUNR: Financial Flexibility From Successful $300M Convertible Will Drive Future Momentum
Analysts have slightly revised their price targets for Intuitive Machines, with minor adjustments reflecting both softer guidance because of government contract delays and improved financial flexibility following a successful convertible note offering. Analyst Commentary Analyst coverage of Intuitive Machines reflects a mix of optimism around the company’s recent financial maneuvers as well as concerns regarding execution risks and revenue predictability.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Expanding Lunar And Deep Space Markets Will Drive Long-Term Success
Analysts have modestly increased their fair value estimate for Intuitive Machines from $14.38 to $15.43 per share. They cite resilient investor demand and improved financial flexibility, despite recent adjustments to project timelines and fiscal outlooks.Analysis Article • Oct 03
Investors Appear Satisfied With Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LUNR) Prospects As Shares Rocket 29%
Intuitive Machines, Inc. ( NASDAQ:LUNR ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 29% after a shaky period...Narrative Update • Sep 08
Expanding Lunar And Deep Space Markets Will Drive Long-Term Success
Analyst price targets for Intuitive Machines edged slightly lower to $14.38 as concerns over delayed mission launches and weaker Q2 results outweighed optimism from successful convertible debt issuance and improved financial flexibility. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts cite lower Q2 results due to charges from internal investment in Near Space Network Systems and delay of the IM-3 lander mission launch to 2H 2026, increasing concerns around revenue visibility and a less attractive civil space orientation.Analysis Article • Jul 24
Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LUNR) P/S Is Still On The Mark Following 34% Share Price Bounce
Intuitive Machines, Inc. ( NASDAQ:LUNR ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 34% gain in the last month...Seeking Alpha • Apr 28
Intuitive Machines: Execution Risk Likely Caps Near-Term Upside
Summary Intuitive Machines' recent lunar mission failure raises concerns about the company's capabilities, although this must be weighed against the inherent difficulty of what it is doing. Intutitive Machines' growth should remain robust in coming years but I believe there is now less clarity around government funding. A shift towards higher-margin services, along with increased scale, should lead to improved margins, although breakeven is likely still several years away. After the recent pullback, I believe Intuitive Machines is more reasonably valued, although a successful lunar mission may be needed to propel the stock higher. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Apr 21
Government Reforms And NASA Contracts Will Expand Commercial Services
Expansion into new markets and service models could broaden service footprint and potentially increase revenue.Seeking Alpha • Mar 24
Intuitive Machines Stock: Surges On Profit Outlook
Summary Intuitive Machines stock surged 25% post-Q4 results but remains 64.4% below its highs. It has recovered 37.2% since my Strong Buy rating. Despite revenue growth, Q4 loss widened due to higher costs. Full-year revenues rose significantly, but operating loss saw only a modest reduction. The company is better capitalized with more contract platforms, expecting positive EBITDA by 2026; 2025 revenue forecast is $250M-$300M. I remain skeptical about Intuitive Machines thriving under fixed-price contracts but continue to rate the stock as a Strong Buy, noting inherent risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 07
Intuitive Machines Stock: Knocked Over But Not Out
Summary Intuitive Machines, Inc. stock is crashing, down 70% from recent highs. The company's IM-2 mission ended in failure after the lander tipped over, the same fate suffered by IM-1. While short-term volatility should be expected, I think the long-term outlook for LUNR stock remains intact. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 05
Intuitive Machines: Shareholder Dilution And $438 Million Cash Raise Are Extremely Good News
Summary Intuitive Machines' stock has surged more than 300% since my initial recommendation, with a 91% return, maintaining my strong buy rating. The company will redeem 21.9 million warrants, potentially raising $250 million in cash, despite a 21% dilution to shareholders. The exercise will significantly boost cash per share from $2.22 to $3.61, supporting business growth and reducing dilution risk. The warrant exercise aligns with Intuitive Machines' contract wins, enhancing liquidity and simplifying the capital structure, justifying my continued strong buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 24
Intuitive Machines: Buy In On The Huge $4.8 Billion Win
Summary Intuitive Machines' stock surged 95%, driven by winning a $4.8 billion NSNS contract, overshadowing earlier dilution concerns. The NSNS contract, divided into two categories, includes Intuitive Machines as a sole-source provider in the 2.2 subcategory. Intuitive Machines could secure 40% to 60% of the NSNS contract, significantly boosting its current $316.2 million backlog. The NSNS contract is transformational, offering substantial growth opportunities, especially in the option period post-2029, justifying the company's recent capital raise. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 14
Intuitive Machines Has A High-Growth Trajectory With NSNS
Summary Intuitive Machines is progressing towards creating a lunar communications satellite constellation, backed by a $4b+ NASA contract that will pay out incrementally. Once in place, the lunar satellite constellation will generate services revenue on a pay-by-the-minute basis, providing LUNR with improved operating leverage. LUNR's backlog expanded by 48% sequentially to $136mm in Q3'24, with key contracts like the South Pole lunar delivery mission and NSNS. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 06
Intuitive Machines Is Cool And Overvalued
Summary Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s financials are weak, relying on continued share dilution despite a $3 billion market cap and government contracts. The company's market size is limited, with no substantial moats, and competition from SpaceX could threaten its position. Intuitive Machines' reliance on NASA contracts, which are politically uncertain, makes its valuation unjustifiable. Despite exciting technology and large contracts, LUNR's financial and political realities make it an overvalued investment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 05
Intuitive Machines Deserves A Spot In Your Portfolio, Just Wait For A Better Entry (Technical Analysis)
Summary Despite the near-term technical weakness, Intuitive Machines' long-term outlook is bullish due to strong revenue growth and promising NASA contracts. The recent stock dilution is offset by $104.25 million in net proceeds, which will support long-term business growth. Current high P/S and EV/S ratios are justified by record revenue growth and significant new contracts, indicating a bright future. Investors should wait for a better entry point as near-term technical signals are bearish, but the long-term fundamentals remain strong. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 26
Intuitive Machines: Why This Stock Has More Room To Run
Summary Intuitive Machines' stock surged 90% in a month and is up 400% over the last 12 months. Revenue growth is picking up, and the company is well positioned to win contracts in addition to the milestone $4.82 billion NSNS award from NASA. LUNR stock is pricey, but long-term growth drivers remain intact. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 10
Sell The Intuitive Machines Pop
Summary Intuitive Machines' $1.3 billion market cap is unjustified due to hefty losses and minimal cash, making it a poor investment. The company operates in delivery services, data transmission, and autonomous operations, but these markets are currently minor with minimal competition. Despite securing massive contracts, including a potential $5 billion NSN contract, the financial benefits are uncertain and likely overstated. Major threats include governance changes and competition from SpaceX, which could cannibalize markets and force dilutive share issuance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 01
Intuitive Machines Is About To Blow The Thrusters For Cash Flow
Summary Intuitive Machines recently sourced 2 major contracts with NASA for just shy of $5b for communications, lunar surface research, and autonomous operations. Intuitive Machines is partnering with SEOPS to provide rideshare opportunities, providing transport services for space equipment. This will help drive profitability. I'm forecasting IM to achieve net profitability in eFY26 as the NASA contracts take off. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 24
Intuitive Machines Stock Surges On Huge $4.8 Billion Contract
Summary Intuitive Machines' $4.8 billion NASA contract boosts its lunar business, potentially adding $48.2 million in sales annually, but its fixed-price nature requires careful execution to ensure profitability. The contract enhances Intuitive Machines' role in lunar communication and navigation, supporting Moon missions and human presence, crucial for its long-term growth. The contract award signals confidence in Intuitive Machines, potentially easing future debt raising and reducing shareholder dilution risks, especially with a rising stock price. Valuation analysis suggests significant upside potential, with price targets between $7.02 and $14.53, making Intuitive Machines a compelling speculative buy despite potential profit-taking. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 18
Intuitive Machines Rockets Higher On NASA Contract
Summary Intuitive Machines secured a $4.82 billion NASA contract, with $150 million guaranteed soon, ensuring stable revenue and reducing the need for external funding. The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, potentially exceeding 50% to 80% y/y into 2025, driven by these NASA contracts. Despite negative gross margins, paying 1x forward sales is compelling due to the significant growth potential and low valuation. Investors should be cautious of volatility, as LUNR is heavily shorted and should be limited to 1% to 2% of portfolios. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 04
Intuitive Machines Wins New Moon Landing Contract, But Stock Dilution Is A Huge Risk
Summary Intuitive Machines offers a compelling investment in lunar exploration but faces significant dilution risk due to ongoing losses from moon missions and high operating costs. Recent revenues soared due to OMES III Task Orders, not lunar missions, highlighting the need for better financial execution to achieve profitability. Despite winning a new $4 billion payload mission, the company must improve cash flow and profitability to mitigate shareholder dilution risks. I maintain a speculative buy rating, recommending gradual stock purchases to manage dilution risk while capitalizing on the $100+ billion lunar exploration market. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 28
Intuitive Machines: Dependence On NASA Is A Short-Term Risk
Summary Intuitive Machines is well positioned to capitalize on the large and growing lunar opportunity. Intuitive Machines' technological capabilities also position it for success in deep space exploration longer term. While Intuitive Machines has potential, its low gross margins, dependence on government spending, and need for additional capital make it a risky investment. Intuitive Machines' valuation is also fairly high given the project-based nature of its revenues and its low margins. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 19
Intuitive Machines Stock: It's Time To Buy (Rating Upgrade)
Summary After a steep 90% decline, Intuitive Machines is now more reasonably valued, prompting a shift in my rating from hold to buy. Intuitive Machines reported impressive revenue growth in Q2, raising full-year guidance and adding $70 million in new backlog this year. With the U.S. and China intensifying their space race, Intuitive Machines is uniquely positioned to benefit from the growing lunar economy, potentially securing long-lasting competitive advantages. LUNR remains a speculative bet, but its cutting-edge technology, competent management, and strategic contracts make it a compelling opportunity for risk-tolerant investors. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 25
Intuitive Machines: Capitalizing On Strong Growth From NASA Service Contracts
Summary NASA's CLPS/VLT program offers significant growth opportunities for Intuitive Machines with a strong leadership team. LUNR is a key player in NASA's Artemis program, aiming to bring humans back to the Moon and eventually enable human exploration of Mars. LUNR is the only company with both CLPS and LTV contracts with NASA, showcasing its technological leadership and full space technology stack. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 23
Intuitive Machines: The Only Play For The Final Frontier
Summary Intuitive Machines (IM) has the largest cash balance and order book in its history, and may triple its revenue in 2024. IM is the only commercial operation with proven lunar capability, giving it a first-mover advantage in the growing lunar industry. IM's success in its first lunar mission validates its technology and business model, positioning it as a key player in the space sector. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 16
Intuitive Machines Unlocks New Achievement, But Caution Is Warranted
Summary Intuitive Machines achieved a new milestone yesterday with the successful launch of the Nova-C lander toward the Moon, which is expected to land on the lunar surface by February 22. Nova-C carries five NASA payloads designed to support future Moon expeditions, including experiments to analyze lunar ice and radiation. In a report published in 2022, NASA outlined how the agency is embracing a commercial-oriented approach in its Artemis program. This is good news for private space companies. According to PwC, the lunar transportation market will be worth at least $55 billion by 2040, Intuitive Machines is well-positioned to benefit from this growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,410 | 65 | 146 | 149 | 2 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,129 | 19 | 35 | 85 | 7 |
| 12/31/2026 | 943 | -15 | -97 | -32 | 8 |
| 3/31/2026 | 334 | -110 | -134 | -89 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 210 | -84 | -56 | -14 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 220 | -133 | -40 | -9 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 226 | -182 | -40 | -20 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 217 | -198 | -46 | -32 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 228 | -284 | -68 | -58 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 204 | -76 | -85 | -78 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 158 | 13 | -81 | -67 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 135 | 23 | -56 | -33 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 80 | 111 | -75 | -45 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 87 | 71 | -26 | 6 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 84 | 26 | -35 | -4 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 86 | -10 | -18 | 6 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 86 | N/A | -16 | 1 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 69 | -40 | -28 | -15 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 78 | -29 | -22 | -14 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 75 | -29 | -37 | -34 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 73 | -36 | -20 | -17 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 44 | -4 | 6 | 8 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: LUNR is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: LUNR is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: LUNR is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: LUNR's revenue (25.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: LUNR's revenue (25.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: LUNR's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (84.1%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/18 07:41 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/15 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
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Analyst Sources
Intuitive Machines, Inc. is covered by 10 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Ronald Epstein | BofA Global Research |
| Michael Crawford | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |
| Austin Moeller | Canaccord Genuity |