Intuitive Machines, Inc.

NasdaqGM:LUNR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.8b

Intuitive Machines Valuation

Is LUNR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUNR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LUNR ($12.56) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($28.8)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUNR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUNR?

Key metric: As LUNR is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for LUNR. This is calculated by dividing LUNR's market cap by their current revenue.
What is LUNR's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio5x
SalesUS$203.90m
Market CapUS$1.76b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does LUNR's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for LUNR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.5x
EH EHang Holdings
20.6x36.9%US$991.7m
VVX V2X
0.4x5.2%US$1.9b
CDRE Cadre Holdings
2.5x9.2%US$1.3b
RDW Redwire
2.6x14.9%US$774.5m
LUNR Intuitive Machines
5x28.4%US$1.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: LUNR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the peer average (6.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does LUNR's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VVX V2X
0.4x5.2%US$1.88b
LLAP Terran Orbital
0.4x29.5%US$51.22m
SIF SIFCO Industries
0.2xn/aUS$21.69m
AIRI Air Industries Group
0.3x8.9%US$14.28m
LUNR 5.0xIndustry Avg. 2.5xNo. of Companies9PS0246810+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: LUNR is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (2.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUNR's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUNR PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio5x
Fair PS Ratio1.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: LUNR is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LUNR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$12.56
US$14.70
+17.0%
7.9%US$16.00US$12.50n/a5
Nov ’25US$8.11
US$10.60
+30.7%
7.5%US$12.00US$10.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$7.57
US$10.60
+40.0%
7.5%US$12.00US$10.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$4.97
US$9.80
+97.2%
10.0%US$11.00US$8.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$3.78
US$9.80
+159.3%
10.0%US$11.00US$8.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$3.49
US$9.80
+180.8%
10.0%US$11.00US$8.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$5.01
US$10.25
+104.6%
4.2%US$11.00US$10.00n/a4
May ’25US$5.16
US$12.25
+137.4%
18.6%US$15.00US$10.00n/a4
Apr ’25US$6.65
US$12.25
+84.2%
18.6%US$15.00US$10.00n/a4
Mar ’25US$5.85
US$13.00
+122.2%
14.4%US$15.00US$10.00n/a4
Feb ’25US$3.69
US$5.56
+50.7%
46.1%US$10.00US$4.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$2.56
US$5.63
+120.2%
45.1%US$10.00US$4.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$2.94
US$5.63
+91.3%
45.1%US$10.00US$4.00n/a4
Nov ’24US$2.99
US$12.25
+309.7%
16.7%US$14.00US$9.00US$8.114
Oct ’24US$3.65
US$12.25
+235.6%
16.7%US$14.00US$9.00US$7.574
Sep ’24US$4.89
US$12.25
+150.5%
16.7%US$14.00US$9.00US$4.974
Aug ’24US$8.11
US$18.40
+126.9%
31.6%US$28.00US$11.00US$3.785
Jul ’24US$8.19
US$18.40
+124.7%
31.6%US$28.00US$11.00US$3.495
Jun ’24US$7.32
US$18.40
+151.4%
31.6%US$28.00US$11.00US$5.015
May ’24US$7.31
US$20.50
+180.4%
24.3%US$28.00US$14.00US$5.164
Apr ’24US$10.80
US$24.25
+124.5%
32.8%US$35.00US$14.00US$6.654
Mar ’24US$19.28
US$25.67
+33.1%
34.0%US$35.00US$14.00US$5.853

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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