AAR Valuation

Is AIR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AIR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AIR ($74.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($232.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AIR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AIR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AIR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA14.9x
PEG Ratio0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AIR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AIR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average51.4x
CDRE Cadre Holdings
38.8x18.1%US$1.5b
MOG.A Moog
30.1x18.8%US$5.7b
HXL Hexcel
55.7x23.5%US$5.5b
AVAV AeroVironment
81.1x24.0%US$4.8b
AIR AAR
43.2x53.2%US$2.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AIR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.2x) compared to the peer average (51.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AIR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AIR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.2x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (35.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AIR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AIR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio43.2x
Fair PE Ratio50x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AIR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AIR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$74.19
US$83.20
+12.1%
3.0%US$86.00US$80.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$70.45
US$83.20
+18.1%
3.0%US$86.00US$80.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$70.99
US$83.20
+17.2%
3.0%US$86.00US$80.00n/a5
May ’25US$68.98
US$82.20
+19.2%
2.6%US$86.00US$80.00n/a5
Apr ’25US$58.90
US$78.60
+33.4%
9.1%US$86.00US$65.00n/a5
Mar ’25US$66.62
US$78.00
+17.1%
8.4%US$83.00US$65.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$62.13
US$78.00
+25.5%
8.4%US$83.00US$65.00n/a5
Jan ’25US$62.40
US$77.00
+23.4%
8.3%US$81.00US$66.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$69.85
US$69.80
-0.07%
7.7%US$80.00US$65.00n/a5
Nov ’24US$59.56
US$67.25
+12.9%
2.9%US$70.00US$65.00n/a4
Oct ’24US$59.53
US$67.25
+13.0%
2.9%US$70.00US$65.00n/a4
Sep ’24US$61.51
US$66.25
+7.7%
1.6%US$68.00US$65.00n/a4
Aug ’24US$59.93
US$66.25
+10.5%
1.6%US$68.00US$65.00n/a4
Jul ’24US$57.76
US$60.50
+4.7%
7.1%US$67.00US$55.00US$70.454
Jun ’24US$51.51
US$60.50
+17.5%
7.1%US$67.00US$55.00US$70.994
May ’24US$53.79
US$58.33
+8.4%
4.0%US$60.00US$55.00US$68.983
Apr ’24US$54.55
US$56.67
+3.9%
4.2%US$60.00US$55.00US$58.903
Mar ’24US$55.19
US$57.00
+3.3%
10.2%US$66.00US$50.00US$66.624
Feb ’24US$52.03
US$57.00
+9.6%
10.2%US$66.00US$50.00US$62.134
Jan ’24US$44.90
US$51.33
+14.3%
1.8%US$52.00US$50.00US$62.403
Dec ’23US$46.93
US$50.00
+6.5%
3.3%US$52.00US$48.00US$69.853
Nov ’23US$44.94
US$50.00
+11.3%
3.3%US$52.00US$48.00US$59.563
Oct ’23US$35.82
US$50.00
+39.6%
3.3%US$52.00US$48.00US$59.533
Sep ’23US$41.98
US$52.67
+25.5%
3.6%US$54.00US$50.00US$61.513
Aug ’23US$44.84
US$52.67
+17.5%
3.6%US$54.00US$50.00US$59.933
Jul ’23US$42.00
US$54.67
+30.2%
6.2%US$58.00US$50.00US$57.763

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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