AAR Corp.

NYSE:AIR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.6b

AAR Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

AAR is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 8.7% and 8% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 2.7% per annum.

Key information

8.7%

Earnings growth rate

2.73%

EPS growth rate

Aerospace & Defense earnings growth17.7%
Revenue growth rate8.0%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated04 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jun 22

AIR: Defense Contracts And Aftermarket Expansion Will Support Measured Future Upside

Analysts kept their AAR price target steady at $131.67, citing only minor model adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions. What’s in the News for AAR AAR reported Q1 revenue growth of 25.3% year over year, with total sales up 25% and organic adjusted sales growth of 14%, beating analyst revenue expectations by 4.1%, according to recent earnings coverage.
Analysis Article • Jun 20

AAR (AIR) Stock Looks Slightly Stretched After Its 25.3% Revenue Jump

AAR (AIR) drew investor attention after reporting quarterly revenue growth of 25.3% year on year, with adjusted operating income above analyst estimates and a 20.1% stock gain following the earnings release. See our latest analysis for AAR. The recent 20.1% jump around earnings sits on top of strong momentum for AAR, with a 30 day share price return of 24.38% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 99.76%. This suggests investors may be reassessing its growth and risk profile. If strong...
Narrative Update • Jun 05

AIR: Defense And Aftermarket Platform Expansion Will Drive Further Upside

Analysts have kept their average price target for AAR steady at about $132 per share, with the latest update reflecting adjustments to assumptions for discount rate, profit margin and future P/E rather than a change in overall valuation. What's in the News AAR hosted its 2026 Investor Day on May 12, outlining a long term plan centered on parts, repair, and software for commercial and government fleets, and reaffirming guidance for Q4 and full fiscal 2026, including adjusted sales of $3.116b, adjusted EBITDA of $376m with a 12.1% margin, and adjusted EPS of $4.67 for the 12 months ended Q3 FY26 (Investor Day materials, May 12, 2026).
Seeking Alpha • Jun 03

AAR Corp.: Structural Earnings Power Not Reflected In The Multiple

Summary AAR Corp. is executing a robust aftermarket aerospace growth strategy, with Q3 FY26 sales up 25% YoY and adjusted EPS beating consensus by 8%. Distribution, especially new parts (36% organic growth) and government (55% organic growth), is driving margin expansion and segment outperformance. Trax software is scaling rapidly, with recurring revenue growth and a marketplace launch in 2026 expected to drive further EBITDA margin re-rating. We rate AIR as a buy with a $145 price target, supported by conservative FY27 EPS and margin targets, strong integration progress, and healthy balance sheet. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 20

AIR: Defense Wins And AI Procurement Platform Will Drive Further Upside

Analysts have raised their price target on AAR to about $132 from $131. This change reflects updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • May 01

AIR: Defense Logistics Wins And AI Platform Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts have reaffirmed their $131.00 price target for AAR, reflecting updated assumptions around a slightly higher discount rate, stable revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a modestly adjusted future P/E outlook. What's in the News AAR CORP.
Narrative Update • Apr 17

AIR: Defense Contracts And MRO Expansion Will Support A Balanced Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target for AAR from $129 to $131, citing updated fair value estimates and a slightly lower discount rate as the main factors behind the revision. What's in the News AAR CORP.
Narrative Update • Apr 02

AIR: MRO Expansion And Defense Contracts Will Support A More Upside Outlook

Analysts have adjusted their price target on AAR to $129.00 from $119.80. This reflects updated views on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions in their models.
Narrative Update • Mar 19

AIR: MRO Expansion And Capital Allocation Will Support A Measured Outlook

Analysts have adjusted their price target for AAR from $114.50 to $119.80, citing updated assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and an expected future P/E of about 24.9x. What's in the News AAR CORP.
Narrative Update • Mar 04

AIR: MRO Expansion And Capital Allocation Will Shape A Balanced Outlook

Analysts have lifted their price target on AAR from about $111 to $115, reflecting small updates to their fair value estimate, discount rate and assumed future P/E multiple, while keeping revenue growth and profit margin expectations broadly unchanged. What's in the News AAR signed a new agreement with Otto Instrument Service to sell and support the LASEREF IV inertial reference system for business aircraft, expanding its OEM distribution reach and using its global supply chain and customer support network to handle availability and deployment.
Narrative Update • Feb 18

AIR: MRO Expansion And Capital Allocation Will Support A Measured Outlook

Analysts have kept their price target for AAR steady at $110.67, with only small tweaks to inputs such as the discount rate, long term revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions supporting this unchanged view. What's in the News AAR plans a CFO transition, with Dylan Wolin appointed as Chief Financial Officer effective February 23, 2026, while current Interim CFO Sarah Flanagan returns to her role as Vice President, Financial Operations (company filing).
Narrative Update • Feb 04

AIR: APAC Joint Venture And Buybacks Will Support Measured Future Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target for AAR higher to about $111 from roughly $109, citing updated assumptions for slightly stronger revenue growth, a modestly lower discount rate, and a small adjustment to future P/E expectations. What's in the News AAR has substantially completed an 80,000+ square foot expansion of its airframe MRO facility in Oklahoma City, adding three maintenance bays that can handle all 737 variants and planning to induct additional Alaska Airlines aircraft as part of a long term commitment (Key Developments).
Analysis Article • Jan 23

AAR Corp.'s (NYSE:AIR) Share Price Boosted 26% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too

The AAR Corp. ( NYSE:AIR ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. The...
Narrative Update • Jan 20

AIR: Share Repurchases And APAC Venture Will Support Steady Future Outlook

Analysts now place AAR's fair value at $108.60, up from $92.25, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and a higher future P/E of 22.55 compared with 13.85. What's in the News AAR completed its previously announced share repurchase program, buying back 2,429,700 shares, or 6.97% of the company, for a total of $107.54 million under the plan announced on December 21, 2021 (company update).
Narrative Update • Jan 05

AIR: Expanded Distribution Agreements And APAC Joint Venture Will Support Steady Outlook

Analysts now place AAR's price target at US$92.25, broadly in line with prior estimates. This reflects updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that together support a steady view of the stock's valuation.
Narrative Update • Dec 15

AIR: Extended Distribution Deals And Lock-Up Expiry Will Drive Earnings Momentum

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on AAR to $92.25 per share from $92.00, citing slightly higher assumed discount rates and a marginally richer future earnings multiple, while maintaining their long term views on growth and profitability. What's in the News AAR and Air France Industries KLM Engineering & Maintenance received regulatory approval and completed formation of xCelle Asia, a Thailand based joint venture focused on nacelle MRO services for new generation aircraft across the APAC region (Strategic Alliances).
Narrative Update • Dec 01

AIR: European Service Agreement And Lock-Up Period Will Shape Earnings Outlook

Analysts have slightly increased their price target for AAR from $91.00 to $92.25, citing improved profit margin forecasts despite a modest slowing in projected revenue growth. What's in the News AAR Corp.
Narrative Update • Nov 17

AIR: New Service Center Deal And Contracts Will Drive Earnings Momentum

Narrative Update on AAR Analysts have raised their price target for AAR to $91.00, citing increased expectations for revenue growth in their latest update. What's in the News AAR and Eaton entered an agreement for AAR to become an authorized service center for Eaton's commercial aerospace customers across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Narrative Update • Nov 03

AIR: Service Center Expansion And Military Agreements Will Support Steady Performance

Narrative Update on AAR Price Target Analysts have maintained AAR's fair value estimate at $91.00. Their decision reflects a reassessment of underlying factors, including a slightly improved revenue growth outlook in addition to marginal adjustments to discount rates and profit margins.
Narrative Update • Oct 20

OKC And Miami MRO Expansion Will Serve Rising Air Travel

Analysts have adjusted their price target for AAR and are maintaining the estimate at $91.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, and future price-to-earnings projections. What's in the News AAR CORP.
Narrative Update • Oct 05

OKC And Miami MRO Expansion Will Serve Rising Air Travel

Analysts have raised their price target for AAR from $87 to $91. They cite stronger projected revenue growth and significantly improved profit margin forecasts as key drivers for the upward revision.
Analysis Article • Oct 01

Some Investors May Be Willing To Look Past AAR's (NYSE:AIR) Soft Earnings

AAR Corp.'s ( NYSE:AIR ) recent soft profit numbers didn't appear to worry shareholders, as the stock price showed...
Narrative Update • Sep 16

OKC And Miami MRO Expansion Will Serve Rising Air Travel

The consensus price target for AAR has increased slightly to $87.00, despite a sharply higher future P/E and a notable decline in net profit margin. What's in the News Awarded a contract worth up to $85 million by the Defense Logistics Agency Troop Support for specialized mobility solutions, including shipping and storage containers, shelters, and accessories.
Analysis Article • Jul 18

There's No Escaping AAR Corp.'s (NYSE:AIR) Muted Revenues Despite A 26% Share Price Rise

AAR Corp. ( NYSE:AIR ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Taking a...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 05

AAR Corp.: Getting On A Stronger Footing

Summary AAR Corp. provides aviation after market services, with parts supply being the largest and highest-margin segment, and has global operations with 6,000 employees. The acquisition of Triumph Product Support increased sales but also raised leverage to over 3 times, with GAAP earnings impacted by adjustments and fines. Despite strong organic growth and potential for earnings improvement, I remain cautious due to elevated leverage and messy GAAP earnings in the near term. AIR's leverage concerns are easing following a strong Q2 earnings report, but I'm waiting to buy due to broader market sell-offs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 16

AAR: MRO Play Suffering Some Turbulence

Summary AAR's acquisition of Triumph Product Support was substantial, raising leverage to over 3 times, resulting in limited immediate earnings accretion. Despite a 10% stock decline over the past year, AAR's adjusted earnings rose to $3.33 per share, but GAAP earnings lagged due to acquisition-related expenses. Current valuations are more appealing with an 18-19 times earnings multiple, but high leverage and poor cash flow conversion remain concerns. I am cautiously optimistic, awaiting the second quarter earnings report to reassess my neutral but constructive stance on AAR's stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 29

AAR Corp.: Why I Believe This Aerospace Stock Can Fly Higher

Summary Despite underperforming the S&P 500, AAR's robust aftermarket demand and capacity expansions suggest significant upside, maintaining a buy rating with an $86 FY26 price target. Sales grew 20% in Q1 FY25, driven by commercial and defense sectors, though gross profit growth was limited by contract and customer mix. Risks include operating at capacity limits and lower USM sales due to airplane shortages, but efficiency improvements and capacity expansions offer growth potential. With no debt maturing until 2028 and potential for refinancing at better terms, AAR's financial outlook remains strong, supporting future growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Sep 24

Air Travel Boom And Strategic Acquisitions Set To Skyrocket Aerospace Services Firm's Growth And Profitability

Structural tailwinds from air travel and aging fleets are expected to boost AAR's aftermarket services, increasing revenue.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:AIR - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
5/31/20294,1172371211683
5/31/20283,869203981425
5/31/20273,6271911051297
5/31/20263,274184731077
2/28/20263,1351713795N/A
11/30/20252,96894-331N/A
8/31/20252,85829-2610N/A
5/31/20252,78113136N/A
2/28/20252,683-12-259N/A
11/30/20242,572101948N/A
8/31/20242,431641544N/A
5/31/20242,319461444N/A
2/29/20242,216603564N/A
11/30/20232,170672861N/A
8/31/20232,09466-34-2N/A
5/31/20231,99189-623N/A
2/28/20231,91389-1118N/A
11/30/20221,84490-717N/A
8/31/20221,811895779N/A
5/31/20221,820785875N/A
2/28/20221,782694558N/A
11/30/20211,740774859N/A
8/31/20211,707715969N/A
5/31/20211,6524694105N/A
2/28/20211,631174255N/A
11/30/20201,774-122847N/A
8/31/20201,931-61335N/A
5/31/20202,07225-60-36N/A
2/29/20202,218661134N/A
11/30/20192,19591N/A85N/A
8/31/20192,12782N/A62N/A
5/31/20192,05284N/A67N/A
2/28/20191,96375N/A56N/A
11/30/20181,88979N/A39N/A
8/31/20181,81781N/A58N/A
5/31/20181,74873N/A64N/A
2/28/20181,72571N/A66N/A
11/30/20171,67655N/A13N/A
8/31/20171,58453N/A2N/A
5/31/20171,59152N/A22N/A
2/28/20171,60947N/A35N/A
11/30/20161,61443N/A47N/A
8/31/20161,71741N/A95N/A
5/31/20161,52545N/A32N/A
2/29/20161,646-56N/A-66N/A
11/30/20151,614-64N/A-90N/A
8/31/20151,586-59N/A-122N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AIR's forecast earnings growth (8.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: AIR's earnings (8.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (18.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AIR's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AIR's revenue (8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AIR's revenue (8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if AIR's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/29 21:42
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/29 00:00
Earnings2026/02/28
Annual Earnings2025/05/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

AAR Corp. is covered by 13 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Kenneth HerbertCanaccord Genuity
J. B. GrohD.A. Davidson & Co.
Noah PoponakGoldman Sachs