Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Stock Overview
Operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers in United States. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 4/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
FLY Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
Firefly is a high-risk, high-reward play. The company’s got huge potential with NASA and defense contracts, but it’s still burning cash
View narrativeFirefly Aerospace Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$22.83 |
| 52 Week High | US$62.17 |
| 52 Week Low | US$16.00 |
| Beta | 0 |
| 1 Month Change | -6.65% |
| 3 Month Change | -16.12% |
| 1 Year Change | -53.91% |
| 3 Year Change | n/a |
| 5 Year Change | n/a |
| Change since IPO | -62.18% |
Recent News & Updates
FLY: Defense And Space Contracts Will Support Long-Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Firefly Aerospace to $38.60 from $41.60, citing small adjustments to discount rates, revenue growth assumptions, profit margin forecasts, and a slightly lower future P/E outlook. What’s in the News for Firefly Aerospace Firefly Aerospace signed a multi launch agreement with SSC Space for two Alpha rocket launches from Sweden's Esrange Space Center, targeted for no earlier than 2028, to serve Sweden's national security and commercial rideshare customers.FLY: Defense And NASA Contracts Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Analysts have updated their price target for Firefly Aerospace to $41.60 from $45.80 as they adjust assumptions around future revenue growth, profitability, and P/E expectations in their valuation models. What’s in the News for Firefly Aerospace SciTec, a Firefly Aerospace subsidiary, received a US$93.7m firm fixed price contract from the U.S. Space Force to support radar digitization and common architecture development for ground based radar systems, reinforcing Firefly’s role in defense focused space technology.Recent updates
FLY: Defense And Space Contracts Will Support Long-Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Firefly Aerospace to $38.60 from $41.60, citing small adjustments to discount rates, revenue growth assumptions, profit margin forecasts, and a slightly lower future P/E outlook. What’s in the News for Firefly Aerospace Firefly Aerospace signed a multi launch agreement with SSC Space for two Alpha rocket launches from Sweden's Esrange Space Center, targeted for no earlier than 2028, to serve Sweden's national security and commercial rideshare customers.FLY: Defense And NASA Contracts Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Analysts have updated their price target for Firefly Aerospace to $41.60 from $45.80 as they adjust assumptions around future revenue growth, profitability, and P/E expectations in their valuation models. What’s in the News for Firefly Aerospace SciTec, a Firefly Aerospace subsidiary, received a US$93.7m firm fixed price contract from the U.S. Space Force to support radar digitization and common architecture development for ground based radar systems, reinforcing Firefly’s role in defense focused space technology.Keep An Eye On Firefly Aerospace
Summary Firefly Aerospace remains a Buy as it transitions from development-stage to a scaled, multi-product Space & Defence platform with strong revenue visibility. FF's $1.5B backlog, $117.7M quarterly revenue, and 95% of 2026 midpoint revenue already booked underpin a compelling growth trajectory, though execution and operating leverage are now critical. Despite rapid revenue growth and a robust balance sheet, FF is deeply investment-driven, with negative EBITDA and heavy cash burn, but liquidity is sufficient for current scaling plans. Valuation is rich at 8.9x forward EV/sales, reflecting aggressive multi-year growth expectations; the bull case hinges on margin expansion and operational milestones, with execution risk remaining high. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaFLY: New NASA Contracts And Campus Expansion Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Firefly Aerospace to $45.80 from $48.22 as modest adjustments to fair value, discount rate and expected growth are partly balanced by a slightly stronger profit margin outlook and a lower future P/E assumption. What’s in the News for Firefly Aerospace Firefly Aerospace received a US$13 million subcontract from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory to manufacture, test, and deliver the SkyFall aeroshell for a Mars mission targeted for launch in late 2028.
FLY: Space Force And Lunar Missions Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Firefly Aerospace to $25.00 from $35.00, reflecting updated assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations. What’s in the News for Firefly Aerospace Firefly Aerospace is guiding for US$420 million to US$450 million in 2026 revenue backed by U.S. Space Force contracts, and highlighted its role in the Golden Dome space based interceptor program and a US$109 million engineering change proposal under the FORGE Enterprise OPIR Services contract (source: Goldman Sachs space economy coverage).FLY: NASA Moon And Mars Contracts Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have raised their price target for Firefly Aerospace to $35.00 from $27.00, citing updates in discount rate assumptions, revised revenue growth expectations, higher projected profit margins, and a lower future P/E estimate as key drivers of the change. What’s in the News for Firefly Aerospace Firefly Aerospace secured a US$144 million NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services contract to use its Blue Ghost lunar lander for a rapid 2028 Moon mission, delivering three NASA science instruments to the lunar near side.FLY: MoonFall Contract Will Anchor Future Lunar And Defense Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price target for Firefly Aerospace from $37.00 to $48.22. This reflects updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions.Shareholder Returns
| FLY | US Aerospace & Defense | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 6.9% | -0.09% | 1.8% |
| 1Y | -53.9% | 4.5% | 13.3% |
Return vs Industry: FLY underperformed the US Aerospace & Defense industry which returned 4.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: FLY underperformed the US Market which returned 13.3% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| FLY volatility | |
|---|---|
| FLY Average Weekly Movement | 11.5% |
| Aerospace & Defense Industry Average Movement | 8.5% |
| Market Average Movement | 6.8% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 15.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.8% |
Stable Share Price: FLY's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: FLY's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1,414 | Jason Kim | www.fireflyspace.com |
Firefly Aerospace Inc. operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers in United States. The company offers integrated launch and space services technology that is committed to enabling launch, transit, and operations in space. It also provides Launch solutions, such as Alpha, a responsive launch services; and Eclipse, a medium-lift launch vehicles.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| FLY fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$3.51b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$370.41m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$287.01m |
Is FLY overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| FLY income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$287.01m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$221.23m |
| Gross Profit | US$65.79m |
| Other Expenses | US$436.20m |
| Earnings | -US$370.41m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -2.21 |
| Gross Margin | 22.92% |
| Net Profit Margin | -129.06% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 2.2% |
How did FLY perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/21 02:02 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/21 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is covered by 11 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Michael Crawford | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |
| Colin Canfield | Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. |
| Xin Yu | Deutsche Bank |