FLY: Space Force And Lunar Missions Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Firefly Aerospace to $25.00 from $35.00, reflecting updated assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations.

What’s in the News for Firefly Aerospace

• Firefly Aerospace is guiding for US$420 million to US$450 million in 2026 revenue backed by U.S. Space Force contracts, and highlighted its role in the Golden Dome space based interceptor program and a US$109 million engineering change proposal under the FORGE Enterprise OPIR Services contract (source: Goldman Sachs space economy coverage).
• The company announced a US$144 million NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services contract to deliver a rapid Blue Ghost lunar lander mission to the Moon’s near side, carrying three NASA science instruments and using a build to print approach for faster production cycles.
• Firefly Aerospace was awarded a US$75 million subcontract from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory for the MoonFall mission, using its Elytra spacecraft to deliver four drones to the Moon’s south pole to survey terrain and potential resources in support of future Artemis missions.
• Firefly Aerospace secured a US$13 million subcontract from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory to manufacture, test, and deliver the SkyFall Mars mission aeroshell, using carbon composite technologies developed for its Blue Ghost landers, Elytra orbiters, and Alpha and Eclipse launch vehicles.
• The stock was added to the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index and dropped from several Russell value benchmarks, while the company completed a US$576 million follow on equity offering of 12,000,000 common shares at US$48 each and set lock up periods for directors, executives, and selling securityholders.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: revised down significantly from $35.00 to $25.00 per share for Firefly Aerospace.
• Discount Rate: adjusted slightly lower from 7.84% to 7.77%, which modestly affects the present value of projected cash flows.
• Revenue Growth: trimmed slightly from 82.25% to 81.51%, reflecting a marginally more cautious growth profile for Firefly Aerospace.
• Profit Margin: nudged higher from 8.88% to 9.06%, indicating a small upward adjustment to expected profitability.
• Future P/E: reduced from 86.58x to 61.22x, indicating a lower multiple is applied to Firefly Aerospace’s projected earnings.