Analysts Are Updating Their Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) Estimates After Its Full-Year Results

Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) came out with its full-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Fastenal reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$7.3b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.02, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Fastenal after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Fastenal

Following the latest results, Fastenal's 15 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$7.83b in 2024. This would be a credible 6.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 6.6% to US$2.15. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$7.83b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.15 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$63.56, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Fastenal analyst has a price target of US$75.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$50.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Fastenal's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 6.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.3% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Fastenal is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Fastenal going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Fastenal's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.