Blue Bird Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.7% to US$38.01. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$314m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Blue Bird surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.86 per share, a notable 11% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Blue Bird after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Blue Bird

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Blue Bird are now predicting revenues of US$1.44b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 7.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 14% to US$3.85. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.46b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.82 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The consensus price target fell 11% to US$53.00, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Blue Bird, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$68.00 and the most bearish at US$36.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 9.7% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.1% per year. So although Blue Bird is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Blue Bird going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Blue Bird Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.