Blue Bird Corporation

NasdaqGM:BLBD Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.3b

Blue Bird Valuation

Is BLBD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BLBD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BLBD ($39.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($168.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BLBD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BLBD?

Key metric: As BLBD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BLBD. This is calculated by dividing BLBD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BLBD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12x
EarningsUS$105.55m
Market CapUS$1.27b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BLBD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BLBD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.3x
GBX Greenbrier Companies
12.2x0.9%US$2.0b
MLR Miller Industries
11x8.2%US$766.9m
REVG REV Group
6.4x-36.2%US$1.7b
TRN Trinity Industries
15.6x1.7%US$2.9b
BLBD Blue Bird
12x15.0%US$1.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BLBD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BLBD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AIRJ AirJoule Technologies
2.3xn/aUS$530.51m
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group
2.5x-46.6%US$69.23m
FATH Fathom Digital Manufacturing
2.6xn/aUS$35.24m
ZEVY Lightning eMotors
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
BLBD 12.0xIndustry Avg. 22.6xNo. of Companies9PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BLBD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (22.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BLBD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BLBD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12x
Fair PE Ratio20.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BLBD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BLBD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$39.37
US$59.64
+51.5%
16.0%US$71.00US$41.00n/a7
Dec ’25US$40.65
US$59.64
+46.7%
16.0%US$71.00US$41.00n/a7
Nov ’25US$42.07
US$60.43
+43.6%
16.7%US$72.00US$41.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$46.10
US$62.50
+35.6%
13.6%US$72.00US$48.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$51.18
US$62.00
+21.1%
13.3%US$72.00US$48.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$49.73
US$53.71
+8.0%
22.9%US$66.00US$34.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$50.89
US$51.86
+1.9%
22.0%US$66.00US$34.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$57.01
US$51.86
-9.0%
22.0%US$66.00US$34.00n/a7
May ’25US$32.83
US$38.93
+18.6%
9.6%US$44.00US$34.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$38.38
US$38.21
-0.4%
10.3%US$44.00US$34.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$34.43
US$38.21
+11.0%
10.3%US$44.00US$34.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$30.73
US$30.25
-1.6%
14.0%US$38.00US$25.00n/a6
Jan ’25US$26.96
US$30.25
+12.2%
14.0%US$38.00US$25.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$19.60
US$27.58
+40.7%
11.5%US$34.00US$25.00US$40.656
Nov ’24US$18.14
US$27.58
+52.1%
11.5%US$34.00US$25.00US$42.076
Oct ’24US$21.35
US$27.58
+29.2%
11.5%US$34.00US$25.00US$46.106
Sep ’24US$22.31
US$28.88
+29.4%
11.0%US$34.00US$26.00US$51.184
Aug ’24US$21.13
US$29.67
+40.4%
11.1%US$34.00US$26.00US$49.733
Jul ’24US$22.48
US$29.67
+32.0%
11.1%US$34.00US$26.00US$50.893
Jun ’24US$25.20
US$29.67
+17.7%
11.1%US$34.00US$26.00US$57.013
May ’24US$19.35
US$24.00
+24.0%
5.9%US$26.00US$23.00US$32.833
Apr ’24US$20.43
US$22.00
+7.7%
17.0%US$26.00US$17.00US$38.383
Mar ’24US$21.30
US$22.00
+3.3%
17.0%US$26.00US$17.00US$34.433
Feb ’24US$15.23
US$18.83
+23.7%
27.1%US$26.00US$14.50US$30.733
Jan ’24US$10.71
US$18.83
+75.8%
27.1%US$26.00US$14.50US$26.963
Dec ’23US$11.90
US$23.50
+97.5%
23.4%US$29.00US$18.00US$19.602

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:54
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/28
Annual Earnings2024/09/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Blue Bird Corporation is covered by 10 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Adam SeidenBarclays
Joel TissBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Sherif El-SabbahyBofA Global Research