Blue Bird (NasdaqGM:BLBD) - Share price, News & Analysis

BLBD fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	0/6

BLBD Stock Overview

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 89.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 79.32% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Blue Bird Competitors

PACCAR

NasdaqGS:PCAR

US$29.0b

Nikola

NasdaqGS:NKLA

US$2.6b

Proterra

NasdaqGS:PTRA

US$1.3b

Lightning eMotors

NYSE:ZEV

US$258.8m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Blue Bird
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$12.00
52 Week High	US$28.12
52 Week Low	US$11.43
Beta	0.98
1 Month Change	-29.74%
3 Month Change	-43.24%
1 Year Change	-52.27%
3 Year Change	-35.28%
5 Year Change	-34.25%
Change since IPO	25.39%

Shareholder Returns

	BLBD	US Machinery	US Market
7D	-2.7%	-0.6%	1.0%
1Y	-52.3%	-16.9%	-15.1%

Return vs Industry: BLBD underperformed the US Machinery industry which returned -17.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BLBD underperformed the US Market which returned -13.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BLBD's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BLBD volatility
BLBD Average Weekly Movement	7.3%
Machinery Industry Average Movement	5.7%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: BLBD is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BLBD's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1927	1,746	Matt Stevenson	https://www.blue-bird.com

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses.

Blue Bird Fundamentals Summary

How do Blue Bird's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BLBD fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$383.89m
Earnings (TTM)	-US$14.28m
Revenue (TTM)	US$725.75m

0.5x

P/S Ratio

-26.9x

P/E Ratio

Is BLBD overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BLBD income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$725.75m
Cost of Revenue	US$665.86m
Gross Profit	US$59.89m
Other Expenses	US$74.17m
Earnings	-US$14.28m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 02, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.45
Gross Margin	8.25%
Net Profit Margin	-1.97%
Debt/Equity Ratio	569.8%

How did BLBD perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Blue Bird undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: BLBD ($12) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($109.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BLBD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: BLBD is unprofitable, so we can't compare its Price-To-Earnings Ratio to the US Machinery industry average.

PE vs Market: BLBD is unprofitable, so we can't compare its Price-To-Earnings Ratio to the US market.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BLBD's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: BLBD is overvalued based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (13.9x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (2.1x).

Future Growth

How is Blue Bird forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

79.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BLBD is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: BLBD is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: BLBD's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BLBD's revenue (21.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BLBD's revenue (21.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Past Performance

How has Blue Bird performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-22.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BLBD is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: BLBD is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BLBD is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 22.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare BLBD's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: BLBD is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Machinery industry (24%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: BLBD has a negative Return on Equity (-51.8%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Financial Health

How is Blue Bird's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BLBD's short term assets ($194.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($168.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: BLBD's short term assets ($194.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($201.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BLBD's net debt to equity ratio (515.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: BLBD had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.

Debt Coverage: BLBD's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Blue Bird current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BLBD's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BLBD's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BLBD's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as BLBD has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Matt Stevenson (42 yo)

0.83

Tenure

Mr. Matthew J. Stevenson, also known as Matt, serves as President at Blue Bird Corporation since July 1, 2021 and also serves as Chief Executive Officer and Director since November 1, 2021. He served as Pr...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BLBD's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: BLBD's board of directors are considered experienced (5.5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 17.8%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/25 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/25 00:00
Earnings	2022/04/02
Annual Earnings	2021/10/02