Blue Bird (BLBD) Stock Overview
Designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 5/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
BLBD passed our risk checks.
BLBD Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Blue Bird Corporation Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$73.21 |
| 52 Week High | US$81.51 |
| 52 Week Low | US$41.08 |
| Beta | 1.37 |
| 1 Month Change | 1.86% |
| 3 Month Change | 35.80% |
| 1 Year Change | 75.10% |
| 3 Year Change | 243.06% |
| 5 Year Change | 175.74% |
| Change since IPO | 664.99% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • 44m
Blue Bird: Fleet Replacement Tailwinds Negated By Outsized Breakout - Downgrade Hold
Summary Blue Bird's accretive Micro Bird JV acquisition, sequentially growing backlog, and raised FY2026/2030 guidance support their long-term profitable growth prospects. This is aided by the ongoing replacement cycle for school buses and the expanded TAM to commercial markets, as the management guides ongoing capacity expansions. Despite the compelling EV/EBITDA of 8.4x and P/E of 14.48x, BLBD's overly done upward momentum already offers a minimal margin of safety to my LTPT of $107. Combined with the overbought technicals and the inability to break out of the $70s resistance level, a near-term correction is rather likely, worsened by the elevated short interest ratio of 10.43%. BLBD is downgraded to Hold here, with interested investors well advised to wait for my Buy Zones between the 100/200 moving averages of $61s/$57s for an improved margin of safety. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 04
BLBD: Pricing Discipline And Electrification Progress Will Shape Fairly Balanced Outlook
Narrative Update on Blue Bird The analyst price target for Blue Bird has been adjusted to $73.00. Analysts cite improved pricing discipline, cost and productivity gains, and stronger EBITDA margins as key supports for the updated view.Narrative Update • May 21
BLBD: Higher Forward P E And Electrification Wins Will Support Further Upside
The analyst fair value estimate for Blue Bird has shifted from $55.00 to $73.00. The change is tied to updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and forward P/E multiples outlined in recent Street research from analysts.Analysis Article • May 13
Shareholders Will Be Pleased With The Quality of Blue Bird's (NASDAQ:BLBD) Earnings
Blue Bird Corporation's ( NASDAQ:BLBD ) strong earnings report was rewarded with a positive stock price move. We did...Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • 44m
Blue Bird: Fleet Replacement Tailwinds Negated By Outsized Breakout - Downgrade Hold
Summary Blue Bird's accretive Micro Bird JV acquisition, sequentially growing backlog, and raised FY2026/2030 guidance support their long-term profitable growth prospects. This is aided by the ongoing replacement cycle for school buses and the expanded TAM to commercial markets, as the management guides ongoing capacity expansions. Despite the compelling EV/EBITDA of 8.4x and P/E of 14.48x, BLBD's overly done upward momentum already offers a minimal margin of safety to my LTPT of $107. Combined with the overbought technicals and the inability to break out of the $70s resistance level, a near-term correction is rather likely, worsened by the elevated short interest ratio of 10.43%. BLBD is downgraded to Hold here, with interested investors well advised to wait for my Buy Zones between the 100/200 moving averages of $61s/$57s for an improved margin of safety. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jun 04
BLBD: Pricing Discipline And Electrification Progress Will Shape Fairly Balanced Outlook
Narrative Update on Blue Bird The analyst price target for Blue Bird has been adjusted to $73.00. Analysts cite improved pricing discipline, cost and productivity gains, and stronger EBITDA margins as key supports for the updated view.Narrative Update • May 21
BLBD: Higher Forward P E And Electrification Wins Will Support Further Upside
The analyst fair value estimate for Blue Bird has shifted from $55.00 to $73.00. The change is tied to updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and forward P/E multiples outlined in recent Street research from analysts.Analysis Article • May 13
Shareholders Will Be Pleased With The Quality of Blue Bird's (NASDAQ:BLBD) Earnings
Blue Bird Corporation's ( NASDAQ:BLBD ) strong earnings report was rewarded with a positive stock price move. We did...Analysis Article • May 11
Need To Know: Analysts Are Much More Bullish On Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Revenues
Shareholders in Blue Bird Corporation ( NASDAQ:BLBD ) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a...Narrative Update • Apr 30
BLBD: Higher Future P E Assumptions Will Constrain Further Share Upside
Analysts have raised the Blue Bird fair value estimate from $49.00 to $55.00. This change reflects updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple supported by recent price target increases from several research firms.
Narrative Update • Apr 16
BLBD: Higher Margin Assumptions And Refined P/E Work Will Support Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Blue Bird by a few dollars, with updated valuations around $69.29 per share. These changes reflect refreshed views on discount rates, profit margin potential, and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Apr 01
BLBD: Higher Margin Assumptions And Lower Discount Rate Are Expected To Support Upside
Analysts have lifted their price targets on Blue Bird, supporting a move in the internal fair value estimate from $63.75 to about $69.29, citing updated views on discount rates, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has focused on higher price targets and refreshed assumptions for discount rates, profit margins, and future P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • Mar 18
BLBD: Higher Margin Outlook And Buybacks Will Support Future Share Gains
The analyst price target for Blue Bird has been raised by $2 to $78. Analysts point to updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E as key drivers of the change.Narrative Update • Mar 04
BLBD: Incremental Price Hikes And Buybacks Will Still Restrain Further Upside
The analyst price target for Blue Bird has increased by a few dollars to incorporate updated views on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions. Recent target increases of $3, $5 and $8 from several firms have helped support the revised range.Narrative Update • Feb 18
BLBD: Conservative FY26 Guidance And Modest Assumption Tweaks Will Limit Further Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted their average price target on Blue Bird by a single-digit dollar amount, reflecting updates to revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions following recent research in which several firms raised their targets by $3, $5, $8 and to $76. Analyst Commentary Recent research has centered on how Blue Bird's updated revenue, margin and P/E assumptions line up with current valuation.Narrative Update • Feb 04
BLBD: Strong Q1 Outlook And Conservative FY26 Guidance Are Expected To Support Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on Blue Bird by US$6 to US$76, citing revenue and EBITDA that were ahead of estimates, as well as a Q1 outlook and FY26 guidance they view as conservative but supportive of their updated view. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to revenues and EBITDA coming in ahead of both their own models and broader expectations, which they see as supportive of a higher valuation framework.Narrative Update • Jan 21
BLBD: Continued Execution And Conservative FY26 Outlook Will Support Higher Shares
Narrative Update on Blue Bird Analysts have lifted their price target on Blue Bird to US$76 from US$70, citing revenue and EBITDA results ahead of expectations, along with a Q1 outlook that exceeded forecasts, while FY26 guidance was maintained and viewed as conservatively set by management. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary from bullish analysts centers on stronger than expected execution and a view that current guidance leaves room for upside over time.Narrative Update • Jan 07
BLBD: Q1 Outperformance And Conservative FY26 Outlook Will Shape Fairly Balanced Prospects
Analysts lifted their fair value estimate for Blue Bird to US$49.00 from US$36.00, citing Street research that highlighted revenue and EBITDA outperformance versus expectations and a Q1 outlook that was well ahead of prior estimates, even as management maintained what analysts viewed as conservative longer term guidance. Analyst Commentary Street research has largely focused on Blue Bird's stronger than expected revenue and EBITDA, along with Q1 guidance that came in ahead of prior estimates.Narrative Update • Dec 17
BLBD: Near Term Revenue And EBITDA Strength Will Support Higher Share Price
Analysts raised their price target on Blue Bird to $76 from $68 per share, citing stronger than expected recent revenue and EBITDA performance, along with a robust near term outlook that offsets only modest changes to long term growth and margin assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlighted that the higher price target reflects growing confidence in Blue Bird's ability to convert operational momentum into sustained earnings growth.Narrative Update • Dec 03
BLBD: Sustained Margin Gains Are Expected To Drive Stronger Share Price Momentum
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Blue Bird higher from $62.38 to $63.75, citing recent price target increases driven by revenue and EBITDA beats, a better than expected near term outlook, and steadily improving margins supported by higher volumes and firmer pricing. Analyst Commentary Recent research notes highlight that bullish analysts are becoming more confident in Blue Bird's ability to sustain stronger revenue growth and margin expansion, which in turn supports higher valuation multiples and price targets.Analysis Article • Nov 27
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Full-Year Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
It's been a good week for Blue Bird Corporation ( NASDAQ:BLBD ) shareholders, because the company has just released its...Narrative Update • Nov 19
BLBD: Continued Margin Improvement Will Drive Upward Share Price Momentum
Analysts have raised their price target for Blue Bird from $55 to $65 per share, citing continued margin improvements and strong post-earnings performance as key factors in their updated outlook. Analyst Commentary Following the recent price target increase, analyst commentary reflects both optimism about Blue Bird's outlook as well as awareness of potential challenges.Narrative Update • Nov 05
BLBD: Gross Margin Improvements Will Drive Continued Outperformance This Year
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Blue Bird from $59.13 to $62.38, citing continued improvements in gross margins and strong management execution. These factors are driving better performance prospects.Analysis Article • Oct 05
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Shares Could Be 43% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Blue Bird fair value estimate is US$94.98 Blue Bird is...Narrative Update • Sep 20
Government Funding And Fleet Renewal Will Drive Future Electrification
Following an earnings beat and raised guidance driven by robust revenue growth, cost control, and sustained margin expansion, analysts have increased Blue Bird's consensus price target from $56.57 to $59.12. Analyst Commentary Earnings beat and raised guidance following Q3 results driven by strong management execution in both revenue growth and cost control.Analysis Article • Aug 28
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Stock Rockets 26% But Many Are Still Ignoring The Company
Blue Bird Corporation ( NASDAQ:BLBD ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month...Narrative Update • Aug 08
Government Funding And Fleet Renewal Will Drive Future Electrification
Despite a notable decline in consensus revenue growth forecasts, an improved net profit margin for Blue Bird has led to an upward revision in the fair value price target from $51.57 to $56.57. What's in the News Blue Bird Corporation announces a share repurchase program of up to $100 million, funded by cash, future free cash flow, or debt, running through up to January 1, 2028.Analysis Article • Aug 03
Returns On Capital Are A Standout For Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD)
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • May 24
It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward With Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD)
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may...Analysis Article • Apr 21
Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Has A Rock Solid Balance Sheet
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Analysis Article • Apr 04
Why The 44% Return On Capital At Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Should Have Your Attention
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Seeking Alpha • Mar 27
Blue Bird Corporation: A Speculative Value Play
Summary I believe Blue Bird shares could be near rock bottom, with potential support in the low $30s after a steep 40% selloff. I find the long term demand compelling, with over 270k aging buses likely needing replacement in the next years. Management is projecting strong EV segment growth in FY25, but I caution that litigation over EPA funding remains the key risk. From a value perspective, shares are trading below last year's sales and the P/CF has cooled off significantly since the all time highs in June last year. I rate Blue Bird Corporation as a speculative buy, expecting upside to the high $50s if policy risks subside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 26
At US$36.23, Is Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Worth Looking At Closely?
While Blue Bird Corporation ( NASDAQ:BLBD ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of...Seeking Alpha • Feb 17
Blue Bird: No Floor In Sight - Pending Further Policy Clarity (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Blue Bird is likely to remain volatile in the near term, despite the double beat FQ1'25 earnings call and the management's reiterated FY2025 guidance. This is attributed to the lack of clarity surrounding the disbursement of federal funding for the Clean School Bus Program, despite a Federal Judge's issuance of a temporary restraining order. This development may also be why BLBD has lowered its FY2025 EV sales guidance, with it underscoring why the stock has been sold off as it has. Despite the robust backlog, growing Free Cash Flow generation, and healthier balance sheet, we are likely to see a disjoint in its performance metrics and stock price performance ahead. Combined with drastically higher short interest volume, we have downgraded BLBD to a Hold, pending further policy clarity and the materialization of a stock price floor. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 09
Blue Bird: Past Underperformance, But Long-Term Potential Is Too Good To Ignore - Reiterating Buy
Summary Blue Bird experienced a slight topline contraction due to a decrease in EV share in total volumes during the first quarter. Expected growth in EV sales with resumed funding and related grants and a robust overall demand environment should drive topline growth in FY25. Benefit from the recent price increase and a favorable mix is expected to support margin in the quarters ahead. Anticipated growth in the top and bottom in the short term, and a promising long-term outlook make BLBD stock a compelling buy at the current levels. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 08
Blue Bird Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year
It's been a good week for Blue Bird Corporation ( NASDAQ:BLBD ) shareholders, because the company has just released its...Analysis Article • Jan 17
Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Could Easily Take On More Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Seeking Alpha • Jan 14
The Case Against Blue Bird
Summary Blue Bird's stock appears undervalued, given strong profit growth and tailwinds from alternative-fuel buses like propane and electric models. The November elections likely have contributed to a recent sell-off; some investors may see that as an opportunity. But the school bus market's long-term stagnation and Blue Bird's reliance on cyclical demand raise concerns about sustainable growth. Pricing and margins have driven earnings growth and stock price appreciation; both seem potentially at risk going forward. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 19
Blue Bird's Unloved Status Triggers Rich Capital Appreciation Prospects
Summary BLBD continues to report robust growth prospects, supported by a growing backlog, higher ASPs, raised FY2025 guidance, and raised long-term profit margin targets. These have directly contributed to its healthier balance sheet along with the raised consensus forward estimates, with it underscoring why the stock is cheap at current levels. Even then, it goes without saying that there may be near-term uncertainties, attributed to the potential change in the US EV policies under the President-elect Trump. The same headwind has already been embedded in BLBD's poor stock price performance, with the stock likely to remain volatile pending further clarity in early 2025. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 14
We Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Passed With Ease
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...Seeking Alpha • Dec 12
Blue Bird: Oversold And Undervalued Heading Into 2025
Summary Blue Bird stock has underperformed recently but still delivered a 90% return over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500. Execution challenges and potential policy changes under President-elect Trump are key risks, especially regarding EPA funding post-2027. Management aims to scale EV production significantly, targeting 4K-5K units post-2028, up from 704 units in FY2024. BLBD is assessed to be oversold and significantly undervalued as investors reflected caution on its growth and execution challenges. I argue why the stock remains poised for a bullish pivot, potentially leading to its next rally as we head into 2025. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 04
Blue Bird Is Positioned For Continued Growth, Looks Even More Attractive Now
Summary Blue Bird Corporation reported strong FY24 results with double-digit top-line growth, driven by robust demand and higher pricing. Anticipated decline in EV sales in H1 FY25 due to customer delivery requests, but backlog and continued healthy demand should drive growth in H2 FY25 and beyond. Higher pricing, focus on operational efficiency, and cost reduction initiatives should fuel margins in the quarters ahead. The recent drop in the stock price makes it an attractive buy as long-term prospects remain promising. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 28
Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Blue Bird Corporation's (NASDAQ:BLBD) Yearly Report
It's been a good week for Blue Bird Corporation ( NASDAQ:BLBD ) shareholders, because the company has just released its...Analysis Article • Nov 27
Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Is Investing Its Capital With Increasing Efficiency
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? One...Seeking Alpha • Nov 27
Blue Bird: Shares Deserve To Take A Nice Ride Higher
Summary Blue Bird Corporation's shares dropped 5% despite better-than-expected revenue and adjusted earnings due to revised long-term guidance and political risks from potential tariffs. The company reported strong Q4 results with revenue of $350.2 million and adjusted EPS of $0.77, outperforming analyst expectations. Management's revised long-term guidance indicates slower growth, but near-term performance improvements and lower trading multiples make the stock a 'strong buy'. Concerns over tariffs and a slightly reduced outlook for the North American school bus industry are valid, but current valuation and performance justify optimism. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 18
Blue Bird: A Hidden Gem On A Dip
Summary Blue Bird has consistently exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in revenue and profits, driven by strategic pricing and a favorable product mix. With substantial investments in expanding production capacity and a strong focus on alternative fuel buses, Blue Bird is well-positioned to benefit from regulatory support. Trading at just 6.7 times forward EV/EBITDA, Blue Bird's valuation is significantly lower than the industry median, offering a compelling entry point for investors. The Q4 2024 upcoming release should provide the key determining moments for the stock's reversal if Blue Bird continues to outperform the estimates, which I think it will. I therefore initiate a "Buy" rating and believe the company's long-term strategy and industry conditions should create long-term shareholder value. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 12
Should You Investigate Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) At US$41.72?
While Blue Bird Corporation ( NASDAQ:BLBD ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of...Seeking Alpha • Nov 08
BlueBird: Adding To My Position With A 100% Upside Target
Summary BlueBird (BLBD) is a Strong Buy with a $91 target, driven by its monopoly on alternative-fueled buses and significant revenue growth potential. Despite potential policy changes, BlueBird's propane and gasoline buses provide a competitive edge, meeting new EPA standards and offering lower total ownership costs. BlueBird's financial health is robust, with record profits, zero debt, and a government grant to boost production capacity by 40% in two years. Risks include competition and government incentives, but BlueBird's diverse powertrain options and strong market position mitigate these concerns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 20
Initiating Blue Bird At A Strong Buy Into Year-End
Summary Blue Bird's stock has paused after a massive rally, but I believe this is a consolidation phase before another significant upward move. Despite short-term bearish technicals, long-term fundamentals and seasonality suggest a bullish outlook, with November historically being a strong month. Blue Bird's leadership in alternative power buses and strong demand for replacements support a robust long-term growth and profitability outlook. At less than 13X forward earnings, Blue Bird is undervalued given its growth prospects, making it a strong buy with significant upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Oct 09
We Think Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Sep 17
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Doing What It Can To Lift Shares
With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 1.4x in the Machinery industry in the United States, you...
New Narrative • Sep 13
Strategic Shifts And Federal Support Drive Electric Bus Maker's Financial Upturn
Strategic partnerships and lean manufacturing investments are poised to enhance production efficiency, lower costs, and improve Blue Bird's profitability.Seeking Alpha • Sep 11
Blue Bird Corporation: It's Time To Turn This Bus Around (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Blue Bird Corporation's stock experienced significant volatility but now shows strong financial performance and improved guidance, prompting an upgrade from 'hold' to 'buy'. Third-quarter revenue increased by 13.3% year-over-year, driven by higher prices and product mix changes, with net income tripling to $28.7 million. Management's updated guidance for 2024 and 2025 indicates higher revenue and EBITDA, with long-term projections suggesting substantial upside potential for investors. With low net debt and plans for share buybacks, Blue Bird Corporation is positioned for strong future growth, justifying a higher valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 05
Blue Bird: Lack Of Price Action On Q3 Make For A Buying Opportunity
Summary Blue Bird is expected to play a key role in the electrification of school buses, with significant growth projections. Government bipartisan programs like the Clean School Bus Act are crucial for the company's growth. Despite a great Q3 and raised guidance, the price action has been nil, providing a buying opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 09
Blue Bird: No-Brainer Growth And Value Stock
Summary Blue Bird Stock suffered a 30% decline, likely due to panic selling and profit-taking after hitting highs in June 2024. Blue Bird's recent earnings release corroborates its bullish thesis, as it upgraded its guidance. BLBD is still cheap, even though it boasts a solid growth profile. While execution challenges and industry cyclicality are critical risks, revenue and profitability visibility are strong. I explain why BLBD is well-positioned to resume its rally, urging investors not to miss adding before it flies. Read on. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 06
Why Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Could Be Worth Watching
Blue Bird Corporation ( NASDAQ:BLBD ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of 44...Seeking Alpha • Jul 04
Blue Bird: Strong Momentum And Good Fundamentals Make It A Buy
Summary Blue Bird operates in the not-so-fancy school bus manufacturing industry. The company has two very clear growth catalysts due to the age of school buses and the transition to electric buses, supported by government plans. Blue Bird recently increased guidance for FY2024, which brought euphoria to the company's shares and, coupled with a reasonable valuation, makes me consider it a buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 24
Putting The Brakes On Blue Bird Corporation
Summary Blue Bird Corporation's stock has surged by 70.7% in three months, outperforming the market. Strong financial performance with revenue and profits increasing significantly have been responsible for this. Management has raised guidance for the year, anticipating further growth in production and revenue. But this doesn't mean that shares deserve more upside from where they are today. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jun 21
Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • May 30
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Shares Could Be 41% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights The projected fair value for Blue Bird is US$94.22 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...Seeking Alpha • May 27
Blue Bird: Don't Miss The School Bus Before It Leaves
Summary Blue Bird Corporation is expected to benefit from the push to replace the aging school bus fleet with clean/zero-emissions models. Blue Bird is expanding its TAM with its EV commercial chassis business. Blue Bird lifted its long-term growth model to account for secular tailwinds lifting its school bus manufacturing business. BLBD has outperformed the market easily over the past year but is still attractively valued. I argue why investors shouldn't miss this school bus stock before it leaves us behind. Read on. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| BLBD | US Machinery | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| 1Y | 75.1% | 47.7% | 25.5% |
Return vs Industry: BLBD exceeded the US Machinery industry which returned 43.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: BLBD exceeded the US Market which returned 24.8% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| BLBD volatility | |
|---|---|
| BLBD Average Weekly Movement | 6.7% |
| Machinery Industry Average Movement | 6.7% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.8% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: BLBD has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: BLBD's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1927 | 2,010 | John Wyskiel | www.blue-bird.com |
Blue Bird Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. It offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative power options through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses, as well as diesel engines.
Blue Bird Corporation Fundamentals Summary
| BLBD fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$2.31b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$133.01m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$1.49b |
17.4x
P/E Ratio1.6x
P/S RatioIs BLBD overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| BLBD income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$1.49b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$1.18b |
| Gross Profit | US$314.22m |
| Other Expenses | US$181.21m |
| Earnings | US$133.01m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 28, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 4.20 |
| Gross Margin | 21.04% |
| Net Profit Margin | 8.91% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 29.5% |
How did BLBD perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/16 03:30 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/16 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/09/27 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Blue Bird Corporation is covered by 12 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Adam Seiden | Barclays |
| Joel Tiss | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Sherif El-Sabbahy | BofA Global Research |