Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NasdaqGM:BLBD using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
NasdaqGM:BLBD DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Blue Bird's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Blue Bird's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Blue Bird's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Blue Bird's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Blue Bird's revenue is expected to grow by 1.2% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Blue Bird's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
4/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Philip Horlock, also known as Phil, has been the Chief Executive Officer, President and Director of Blue Bird Corporation since February 24, 2015. Mr. Horlock served as the President and Chief Financial Officer of Blue Bird. He joined Blue Bird in January 2010 following more than 30 years of global automotive experience with Ford Motor Company, where he held Senior Executive positions in Finance and Operations worldwide. Prior to joining Blue Bird, Mr. Horlock worked more than 30 years at Ford Motor Company, where he held positions of increasing responsibility in worldwide Finance and Operations. His executive roles at Ford included Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Ford Motor Land Development Corp.; Chief Financial Officer of Ford Asia Pacific & Africa; Member of the Advisory Board of Mazda Motor Corporation of Japan; Executive Vice President of Ford Global Insurance Operations; and Controller of Global Marketing, Sales & Service. He served as a Director of LoJack Corporation from June 18, 2013 to March 18, 2016. Mr. Horlock received a Bachelor's degree in psychology and mathematics from the University of Sheffield in England where he graduated with honors. In addition, he is a graduate of the Ford Motor's Capstone Program for executive leadership development.
Phil's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Phil's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Blue Bird management team is about average.
CFO & Chief Accounting Officer
Chief Administrative Officer
Director of Investor Relations & Government Affairs
General Counsel & Corporate Treasurer
Chief Commercial Officer
President & CEO of Micro Bird Inc.
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Blue Bird board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
What Is Blue Bird Corporation's (NASDAQ:BLBD) Share Price Doing?
received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NASDAQGM over the last few months, increasing to $20.71 at one point, and dropping to the lows of $16.83. … A question to answer is whether Blue Bird's current trading price of $17.92 reflective of the actual value of the? … Let’s take a look at Blue Bird’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change
Does The Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Share Price Fall With The Market?
If you're interested in Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. … Some investors use beta as a measure of how much a certain stock is impacted by market risk (volatility). … A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market.
Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Shareholders Booked A 73% Gain In The Last Three Years
One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price. … During three years of share price growth, Blue Bird achieved compound earnings per share growth of 44% per year. … It is of course excellent to see how Blue Bird has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders
Should You Consider Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD)?
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) is a company with exceptional fundamental characteristics. … Upon building up an investment case for a stock, we should look at various aspects. … In the case of BLBD, it.
Is Blue Bird Corporation's (NASDAQ:BLBD) CEO Pay Justified?
In 2015 Phil Horlock was appointed CEO of Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD). … This analysis aims first to contrast CEO compensation with other companies that have similar market capitalization. … How Does Phil Horlock's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies?
Does Blue Bird Corporation's (NASDAQ:BLBD) P/E Ratio Signal A Buying Opportunity?
This article is written for those who want to get better at using price to earnings ratios (P/E ratios). … We'll look at Blue Bird Corporation's (NASDAQ:BLBD) P/E ratio and reflect on what it tells us about the company's share price. … Price to Earnings Ratio = Price per Share ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD)
by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. … Discounted Cash Flows (DCF). … If you are reading this and its not January 2019 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Blue Bird by following the link below
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Is Employing Capital Very Effectively
Specifically, we'll consider its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), since that will give us an insight into how efficiently the business can generate profits from the capital it requires. … Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What is it? … Analysts use this formula to calculate return on capital employed:
How Much Are Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Insiders Taking Off The Table?
So we'll take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD). … But logic dictates you should pay some attention to whether insiders are buying or selling shares. … The Last 12 Months Of Insider Transactions At Blue Bird.
Does Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Have A Volatile Share Price?
If you're interested in Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. … Beta is a widely used metric to measure a stock's exposure to market risk (volatility). … Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.
Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane-powered, gasoline-powered, compressed natural gas-powered, and electric powered school buses. It sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and a parts distribution center. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.
Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd (ACN 600 056 611), is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Authorised Representative Number: 467183) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 337927). Any advice contained in this website is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us.