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Blue Bird

Nasdaq:BLBD
Snowflake Description

Undervalued with proven track record.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
BLBD
Nasdaq
$461M
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Capital Goods
Company description

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The last earnings update was 78 days ago. More info.


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BLBD Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
-8.1%
NasdaqGM:BLBD
0.5%
US Machinery
0.9%
US Market
1 Year Returns
-26.4%
NasdaqGM:BLBD
6.1%
US Machinery
9.6%
US Market
BLBD Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Blue Bird (BLBD) -8.1% 2.9% -12.9% -26.4% 61.6% -
US Machinery 0.5% 9.1% 15.2% 6.1% 49.8% 33%
US Market 0.9% 4.6% 10.9% 9.6% 39% 47.2%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • BLBD underperformed the Machinery industry which returned 6.1% over the past year.
  • BLBD underperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 9.6% over the past year.
Price Volatility
BLBD
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is Blue Bird undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Blue Bird to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Blue Bird.

NasdaqGM:BLBD Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 10.5%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NasdaqGM:BLBD
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Machinery Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.07
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 1.068 (1 + (1- 21%) (45.53%))
1.303
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.3
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.303 * 5.96%)
10.5%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NasdaqGM:BLBD using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Blue Bird is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

NasdaqGM:BLBD DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 10.5%)
2019 23.45 Analyst x2 21.22
2020 50.75 Analyst x2 41.57
2021 63.04 Est @ 24.22% 46.73
2022 74.24 Est @ 17.77% 49.81
2023 84.09 Est @ 13.26% 51.05
2024 92.58 Est @ 10.1% 50.87
2025 99.89 Est @ 7.89% 49.67
2026 106.22 Est @ 6.34% 47.80
2027 111.81 Est @ 5.26% 45.54
2028 116.84 Est @ 4.5% 43.07
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $447.32
NasdaqGM:BLBD DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2028 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $116.84 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (10.5% – 2.73%)
$1,545.63
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $1,545.63 ÷ (1 + 10.5%)10
$569.71
NasdaqGM:BLBD Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $447.32 + $569.71
$1,017.03
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $1,017.03 / 26.39
$38.54
NasdaqGM:BLBD Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $38.54
Current discount Discount to share price of $17.47
= -1 x ($17.47 - $38.54) / $38.54
54.7%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Blue Bird is available for.
Intrinsic value
>50%
Share price is $17.47 vs Future cash flow value of $38.54
Current Discount Checks
For Blue Bird to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Blue Bird's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Blue Bird's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Blue Bird's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Blue Bird's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:BLBD PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2018-12-29) in USD $1.40
NasdaqGM:BLBD Share Price ** NasdaqGM (2019-04-25) in USD $17.47
United States of America Machinery Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 103 Publicly-Listed Machinery Companies 20.8x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,081 Publicly-Listed Companies 18.28x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Blue Bird.

NasdaqGM:BLBD PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NasdaqGM:BLBD Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 17.47 ÷ 1.40

12.44x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Blue Bird is good value based on earnings compared to the US Machinery industry average.
  • Blue Bird is good value based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Blue Bird's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:BLBD PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 12.44x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 4 Analysts
26.5%per year
United States of America Machinery Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 83 Publicly-Listed Machinery Companies 1.66x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,113 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.57x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

NasdaqGM:BLBD PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 12.44x ÷ 26.5%

0.47x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Blue Bird is good value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Blue Bird's assets?
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:BLBD PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2018-12-29) in USD $-3.02
NasdaqGM:BLBD Share Price * NasdaqGM (2019-04-25) in USD $17.47
United States of America Machinery Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 129 Publicly-Listed Machinery Companies 2.54x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,185 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.92x
NasdaqGM:BLBD PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NasdaqGM:BLBD Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 17.47 ÷ -3.02

-5.78x

* Primary Listing of Blue Bird.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Blue Bird has negative assets, we can't compare the value of its assets to the US Machinery industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Blue Bird's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Machinery industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Machinery industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Blue Bird has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Blue Bird expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
26.5%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Blue Bird expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Blue Bird's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Blue Bird's earnings growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
  • Blue Bird's revenue growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:BLBD Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NasdaqGM:BLBD Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 4 Analysts 26.5%
NasdaqGM:BLBD Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 4 Analysts 1.2%
United States of America Machinery Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 10.9%
United States of America Machinery Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.7%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 13.5%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.1%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:BLBD Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NasdaqGM:BLBD Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2020-09-30 1,030 63 51 4
2019-09-30 1,011 48 36 4
NasdaqGM:BLBD Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2018-12-29 1,017 34 36
2018-09-29 1,025 48 29
2018-06-30 1,006 49 21
2018-03-31 1,024 24 19
2017-12-30 1,016 46 19
2017-09-30 991 48 18
2017-07-01 964 10 21
2017-04-01 955 29 -2
2016-12-31 937 34 -3
2016-10-01 932 25 3
2016-07-02 953 76 8
2016-04-02 893 51 22
2016-01-02 885 13 10

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Blue Bird's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
  • Blue Bird's revenue is expected to grow by 1.2% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:BLBD Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (3 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Blue Bird Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NasdaqGM:BLBD Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2020-09-30 1.88 2.06 1.55 4.00
2019-09-30 1.35 1.58 1.11 4.00
NasdaqGM:BLBD Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2018-12-29 1.40
2018-09-29 1.15
2018-06-30 0.87
2018-03-31 0.78
2017-12-30 0.82
2017-09-30 0.79
2017-07-01 0.94
2017-04-01 -0.07
2016-12-31 -0.13
2016-10-01 0.14
2016-07-02 0.40
2016-04-02 1.05
2016-01-02 0.47

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Unable to establish if Blue Bird will efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future without estimates of Return on Equity.
X
Future performance checks
We assess Blue Bird's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Blue Bird has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Blue Bird performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Blue Bird's growth in the last year to its industry (Machinery).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Blue Bird has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
  • Blue Bird's 1-year earnings growth exceeds its 5-year average (88.1% vs 28.1%)
  • Blue Bird's earnings growth has exceeded the US Machinery industry average in the past year (88.1% vs 27.9%).
Earnings and Revenue History
Blue Bird's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Blue Bird Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NasdaqGM:BLBD Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2018-12-29 1,017.35 36.31 72.17 8.40
2018-09-29 1,024.98 28.92 80.36 8.40
2018-06-30 1,006.05 21.31 77.20 7.00
2018-03-31 1,024.47 18.66 72.58 7.00
2017-12-30 1,016.49 19.32 73.10 7.00
2017-09-30 990.60 18.45 65.83 7.00
2017-07-01 964.33 21.41 69.75 5.40
2017-04-01 954.78 -1.53 81.81 5.40
2016-12-31 937.34 -2.81 81.30 5.40
2016-10-01 932.01 3.02 80.18 5.40
2016-07-02 953.22 8.35 76.77 5.20
2016-04-02 892.82 21.89 65.78 5.20
2016-01-02 884.63 9.93 67.19 5.20
2015-10-03 919.13 12.62 65.57 5.20
2015-07-04 885.25 -3.53 73.87 3.70
2015-04-04 862.92 -21.12 70.25 3.70
2015-01-03 875.58 -1.98 64.42 3.70
2014-09-27 855.74 2.72 63.07 3.70
2014-06-28 828.11 46.34 59.99
2013-09-28 776.56 54.37 61.73 3.60
2012-09-29 598.33 -2.67 56.73

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • It is difficult to establish if Blue Bird has efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 20%) due to its liabilities exceeding its assets.
  • Blue Bird used its assets more efficiently than the US Machinery industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Blue Bird's use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Blue Bird's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Machinery industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Blue Bird has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Blue Bird's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Blue Bird's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Blue Bird is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Blue Bird's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Blue Bird's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Blue Bird has negative shareholder equity (liabilities exceed assets) therefore debt is not covered by short term assets.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Blue Bird Company Filings, last reported 3 months ago.

NasdaqGM:BLBD Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2018-12-29 -79.71 209.88 18.82
2018-09-29 -28.34 142.36 60.26
2018-06-30 -44.48 145.80 41.92
2018-03-31 -69.95 147.61 10.35
2017-12-30 -65.32 149.42 23.21
2017-09-30 -58.51 151.22 62.62
2017-07-01 -59.63 153.03 50.31
2017-04-01 -82.19 154.86 38.43
2016-12-31 -93.12 156.72 13.00
2016-10-01 -86.97 152.12 52.31
2016-07-02 -99.05 154.33 42.70
2016-04-02 -119.16 182.65 28.62
2016-01-02 -121.53 194.90 16.63
2015-10-03 -121.23 187.17 52.86
2015-07-04 -133.85 215.93 27.82
2015-04-04 -145.59 218.26 22.62
2015-01-03 -148.83 220.59 23.49
2014-09-27 -148.80 222.87 61.14
2014-06-28 -137.71 225.11 35.72
2013-09-28 79.42 13.06 46.59
2012-09-29 15.01 41.28 39.18
  • Blue Bird has negative shareholder equity (liabilities exceed assets), this is a more serious situation compared with a high debt level.
  • Irrelevant to check if Blue Bird's debt level has increased considering it has negative shareholder equity.
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (16.2%, less than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 5x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Blue Bird's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Blue Bird has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Blue Bird's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
0%
Current annual income from Blue Bird dividends.
If you bought $2,000 of Blue Bird shares you are expected to receive $0 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Unable to evaluate Blue Bird's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers as the company has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to evaluate Blue Bird's dividend against the top 25% market benchmark as the company has not reported any payouts.
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:BLBD Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 4 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Machinery Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 77 Stocks 1.9%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 2008 Stocks 2.4%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.4%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.6%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NasdaqGM:BLBD Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2020-09-30
2019-09-30

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to perform a dividend volatility check as Blue Bird has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to verify if Blue Bird's dividend has been increasing as the company has not reported any payouts.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Blue Bird's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as Blue Bird has not reported any payouts.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Insufficient estimate data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years and that it will be sustainable.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Blue Bird's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Blue Bird afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Blue Bird has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Blue Bird's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Phil Horlock
COMPENSATION $2,457,550
AGE 62
TENURE AS CEO 4.2 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Philip Horlock, also known as Phil, has been the Chief Executive Officer, President and Director of Blue Bird Corporation since February 24, 2015. Mr. Horlock served as the President and Chief Financial Officer of Blue Bird. He joined Blue Bird in January 2010 following more than 30 years of global automotive experience with Ford Motor Company, where he held Senior Executive positions in Finance and Operations worldwide. Prior to joining Blue Bird, Mr. Horlock worked more than 30 years at Ford Motor Company, where he held positions of increasing responsibility in worldwide Finance and Operations. His executive roles at Ford included Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Ford Motor Land Development Corp.; Chief Financial Officer of Ford Asia Pacific & Africa; Member of the Advisory Board of Mazda Motor Corporation of Japan; Executive Vice President of Ford Global Insurance Operations; and Controller of Global Marketing, Sales & Service. He served as a Director of LoJack Corporation from June 18, 2013 to March 18, 2016. Mr. Horlock received a Bachelor's degree in psychology and mathematics from the University of Sheffield in England where he graduated with honors. In addition, he is a graduate of the Ford Motor's Capstone Program for executive leadership development.

CEO Compensation
  • Phil's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
  • Phil's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Blue Bird management team in years:

3.4
Average Tenure
62
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Blue Bird management team is about average.
Management Team

Phil Horlock

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
62
TENURE
4.2 yrs

Phil Tighe

TITLE
CFO & Chief Accounting Officer
COMPENSATION
$1M
AGE
64
TENURE
4.2 yrs

Tom Roberts

TITLE
Chief Administrative Officer
COMPENSATION
$876K
AGE
66
TENURE
3.4 yrs

Mark Benfield

TITLE
Director of Investor Relations & Government Affairs

Paul Yousif

TITLE
General Counsel & Corporate Treasurer
AGE
43
TENURE
2.3 yrs

Mark Terry

TITLE
Chief Commercial Officer
AGE
59
TENURE
3 yrs

Steve Girardin

TITLE
President & CEO of Micro Bird Inc.
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Blue Bird board of directors in years:

2.8
Average Tenure
57
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Blue Bird board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors

Kevin Penn

TITLE
Chairman of the Board
COMPENSATION
$155K
AGE
57
TENURE
2.8 yrs

Phil Horlock

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
62
TENURE
4.2 yrs

Dan Hennessy

TITLE
Vice Chairman
COMPENSATION
$100K
AGE
61

Chan Galbato

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$105K
AGE
55

Alan Schumacher

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$110K
AGE
71
TENURE
4.2 yrs

Gurminder Bedi

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$100K
AGE
70
TENURE
4.2 yrs

Doug Grimm

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$100K
AGE
56
TENURE
2 yrs

Connor Wentzell

TITLE
Director
AGE
27
TENURE
0.4 yrs

Kathleen Shaw

TITLE
Director
AGE
56
TENURE
0.1 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • No 3 month insider trading information.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
17. Dec 18 Sell Spitfire Capital LLC Company 26. Nov 18 13. Dec 18 -55,376 $19.33 $-1,053,352
22. Oct 18 Sell American Securities LLC Company 18. Oct 18 18. Oct 18 -969,850 $28.00 $-27,155,800
05. Sep 18 Sell Daniel Hennessy Individual 04. Sep 18 04. Sep 18 -27,887 $22.84 $-636,939
05. Sep 18 Sell Daniel Hennessy Individual 30. Aug 18 30. Aug 18 -8,031 $22.91 $-183,990
04. Sep 18 Sell Daniel Hennessy Individual 31. Aug 18 31. Aug 18 -17,220 $22.87 $-393,821
X
Management checks
We assess Blue Bird's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Blue Bird has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

What Is Blue Bird Corporation's (NASDAQ:BLBD) Share Price Doing?

received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NASDAQGM over the last few months, increasing to $20.71 at one point, and dropping to the lows of $16.83. … A question to answer is whether Blue Bird's current trading price of $17.92 reflective of the actual value of the? … Let’s take a look at Blue Bird’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change

Simply Wall St -

Does The Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Share Price Fall With The Market?

If you're interested in Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. … Some investors use beta as a measure of how much a certain stock is impacted by market risk (volatility). … A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market.

Simply Wall St -

Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) Shareholders Booked A 73% Gain In The Last Three Years

One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price. … During three years of share price growth, Blue Bird achieved compound earnings per share growth of 44% per year. … It is of course excellent to see how Blue Bird has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders

Simply Wall St -

Should You Consider Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD)?

Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) is a company with exceptional fundamental characteristics. … Upon building up an investment case for a stock, we should look at various aspects. … In the case of BLBD, it.

Simply Wall St -

Is Blue Bird Corporation's (NASDAQ:BLBD) CEO Pay Justified?

In 2015 Phil Horlock was appointed CEO of Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD). … This analysis aims first to contrast CEO compensation with other companies that have similar market capitalization. … How Does Phil Horlock's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies?

Simply Wall St -

Does Blue Bird Corporation's (NASDAQ:BLBD) P/E Ratio Signal A Buying Opportunity?

This article is written for those who want to get better at using price to earnings ratios (P/E ratios). … We'll look at Blue Bird Corporation's (NASDAQ:BLBD) P/E ratio and reflect on what it tells us about the company's share price. … Price to Earnings Ratio = Price per Share ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)

Simply Wall St -

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD)

by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. … Discounted Cash Flows (DCF). … If you are reading this and its not January 2019 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Blue Bird by following the link below

Simply Wall St -

Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Is Employing Capital Very Effectively

Specifically, we'll consider its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), since that will give us an insight into how efficiently the business can generate profits from the capital it requires. … Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What is it? … Analysts use this formula to calculate return on capital employed:

Simply Wall St -

How Much Are Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Insiders Taking Off The Table?

So we'll take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD). … But logic dictates you should pay some attention to whether insiders are buying or selling shares. … The Last 12 Months Of Insider Transactions At Blue Bird.

Simply Wall St -

Does Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) Have A Volatile Share Price?

If you're interested in Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. … Beta is a widely used metric to measure a stock's exposure to market risk (volatility). … Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane-powered, gasoline-powered, compressed natural gas-powered, and electric powered school buses. It sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and a parts distribution center. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

Details
Name: Blue Bird Corporation
BLBD
Exchange: NasdaqGM
Founded: 1927
$460,987,179
26,387,360
Website: http://www.blue-bird.com
Address: Blue Bird Corporation
3920 Arkwright Road,
2nd Floor,
Macon,
Georgia, 31210,
United States
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NasdaqGM BLBD Common Stock Nasdaq Global Market US USD 26. Feb 2015
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
2,237
Blue Bird employees.
Industry
Construction Machinery and Heavy Trucks
Capital Goods
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/04/26 02:33
End of day share price update: 2019/04/25 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/04/02
Last earnings filing: 2019/02/07
Last earnings reported: 2018/12/29
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/09/29


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.