AeroVironment (AVAV) Wins Space Force Antenna Contract Is Its Defense Tech Edge Accelerating?

• In September 2025, AeroVironment announced a new firm-fixed-price contract award from the U.S. Space Force for the delivery of two BADGER phased array antenna systems under the SCAR program, with first deliveries scheduled within months and additional units planned for early 2026 deployment.
• This contract execution highlights AeroVironment's role in supporting rapid deployment and operational resilience for U.S. defense, while demonstrating the company's ability to scale production and enhance system performance in advanced military communications technology.
• We'll examine how this Space Force contract reinforces AeroVironment's investment narrative by strengthening its position in next-generation defense communications solutions.

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AeroVironment Investment Narrative Recap

AeroVironment shareholders need to believe in the company’s ability to anchor its future on large, recurring U.S. and allied defense contracts while executing on rapid innovation in next-generation military communications and autonomy. The recent Space Force contract win supports the company’s position as a key technology supplier and could strengthen the short-term catalyst of visible backlog expansion. However, it does not meaningfully address the risk of AeroVironment’s continued reliance on U.S. government funding, leaving revenue exposed to shifting budget cycles.

Another recent announcement that stands out is AeroVironment’s nearly $240 million order for long-haul laser communications terminals, awarded just days before the Space Force deal. This order, also aimed at supporting critical defense networking capabilities, highlights the fast-growing opportunity in advanced communications, a catalyst expected to support near-term revenue momentum and further reinforce backlog growth.

By contrast, investors should be aware that the company’s concentrated customer base means results can still turn quickly if...

Read the full narrative on AeroVironment (it's free!)

AeroVironment's narrative projects $2.6 billion revenue and $264.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 47.0% yearly revenue growth and a $220.9 million earnings increase from $43.6 million currently.

Uncover how AeroVironment's forecasts yield a $305.55 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eight individual fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$130.46 to US$335. This diversity comes as AeroVironment’s major wins from U.S. defense contracts continue to raise both growth potential and funding reliance.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on AeroVironment - why the stock might be worth as much as 16% more than the current price!

Build Your Own AeroVironment Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your AeroVironment research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free AeroVironment research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AeroVironment's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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