We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

AeroVironment Valuation

Is AVAV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

[object Object] Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AVAV?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AVAV key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA40.7x
PEG Ratio13.9x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AVAV's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AVAV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.5x
MRCY Mercury Systems
3x7.0%US$3.0b
MAXR Maxar Technologies
1.1x7.0%US$1.8b
MOG.A Moog
0.9x4.4%US$2.8b
VVX V2X
0.9x28.1%US$1.2b
AVAV AeroVironment
5x11.2%US$2.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AVAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the peer average (1.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AVAV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.4%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AVAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (1.9x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AVAV's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AVAV PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio5x
Fair PS Ratio1.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AVAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AVAV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AVAV ($91.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($216.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AVAV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AVAV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$91.41
US$100.00
+9.4%
10.0%US$115.00US$85.00n/a5
Nov ’23US$89.39
US$98.75
+10.5%
11.0%US$115.00US$85.00n/a4
Oct ’23US$83.36
US$98.75
+18.5%
11.0%US$115.00US$85.00n/a4
Sep ’23US$83.46
US$96.25
+15.3%
11.8%US$115.00US$85.00n/a4
Aug ’23US$87.68
US$92.50
+5.5%
6.0%US$100.00US$85.00n/a4
Jul ’23US$85.91
US$92.50
+7.7%
6.0%US$100.00US$85.00n/a4
Jun ’23US$91.14
US$86.20
-5.4%
13.5%US$100.00US$66.00n/a5
May ’23US$80.32
US$85.20
+6.1%
12.4%US$95.00US$66.00n/a5
Apr ’23US$94.28
US$80.20
-14.9%
13.3%US$95.00US$66.00n/a5
Mar ’23US$71.98
US$70.40
-2.2%
11.1%US$85.00US$64.00n/a5
Feb ’23US$57.68
US$70.40
+22.1%
11.1%US$85.00US$64.00n/a5
Jan ’23US$62.03
US$71.50
+15.3%
11.7%US$85.00US$64.00n/a4
Dec ’22US$78.80
US$118.75
+50.7%
13.4%US$140.00US$95.00US$91.414
Nov ’22US$91.30
US$120.20
+31.7%
12.1%US$140.00US$95.00US$89.395
Oct ’22US$87.07
US$126.50
+45.3%
6.5%US$140.00US$120.00US$83.364
Sep ’22US$103.64
US$125.20
+20.8%
6.2%US$140.00US$120.00US$83.465
Aug ’22US$101.10
US$126.50
+25.1%
6.5%US$140.00US$120.00US$87.684
Jul ’22US$100.50
US$126.50
+25.9%
6.5%US$140.00US$120.00US$85.914
Jun ’22US$110.43
US$126.50
+14.6%
6.5%US$140.00US$120.00US$91.144
May ’22US$110.37
US$125.00
+13.3%
6.9%US$140.00US$120.00US$80.324
Apr ’22US$119.35
US$125.00
+4.7%
6.9%US$140.00US$120.00US$94.284
Mar ’22US$115.45
US$125.00
+8.3%
6.9%US$140.00US$120.00US$71.984
Feb ’22US$118.50
US$125.00
+5.5%
6.9%US$140.00US$120.00US$57.684
Jan ’22US$86.90
US$96.33
+10.9%
7.7%US$103.00US$86.00US$62.033
Dec ’21US$87.33
US$88.00
+0.8%
1.9%US$90.00US$86.00US$78.803

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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