AeroVironment Valuation
Is AVAV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of AVAV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: AVAV ($198.34) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($407.75)
Significantly Below Fair Value: AVAV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AVAV?
Key metric: As AVAV is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is AVAV's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 94.2x |
| Earnings | US$58.94m |
| Market Cap | US$5.46b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 7.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 50.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.8x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does AVAV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 28.9x | ||
HXL Hexcel | 43.9x | 22.9% | US$4.8b |
MOG.A Moog | 33.5x | 20.2% | US$7.0b |
HII Huntington Ingalls Industries | 10.6x | 6.9% | US$7.5b |
WWD Woodward | 27.6x | 6.4% | US$10.2b |
AVAV AeroVironment | 94.2x | 25.1% | US$5.5b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AVAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.2x) compared to the peer average (28.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does AVAV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?
| 4 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
CVU CPI Aerostructures | 2.8x | n/a | US$47.45m |
ETCC Environmental Tectonics | 4.8x | n/a | US$30.36m |
AWIN AERWINS Technologies | 0.002x | n/a | US$6.93k |
GIGA.Q Gresham Worldwide | n/a | n/a | US$7.00 |
| 4 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AVAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.2x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (34.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is AVAV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 94.2x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 30.8x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AVAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.8x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$198.34 | US$229.00 +15.5% | 5.6% | US$245.00 | US$210.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Nov ’25 | US$216.00 | US$231.00 +6.9% | 5.9% | US$245.00 | US$210.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Oct ’25 | US$211.09 | US$224.00 +6.1% | 5.5% | US$245.00 | US$210.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Sep ’25 | US$203.76 | US$225.00 +10.4% | 6.6% | US$245.00 | US$200.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Aug ’25 | US$174.34 | US$207.20 +18.8% | 14.0% | US$245.00 | US$161.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jul ’25 | US$175.67 | US$207.20 +17.9% | 14.0% | US$245.00 | US$161.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jun ’25 | US$202.15 | US$185.25 -8.4% | 8.1% | US$200.00 | US$161.00 | n/a | 4 |
| May ’25 | US$162.53 | US$180.25 +10.9% | 9.7% | US$200.00 | US$161.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Apr ’25 | US$149.42 | US$179.00 +19.8% | 10.4% | US$200.00 | US$160.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Mar ’25 | US$128.73 | US$150.50 +16.9% | 2.4% | US$155.00 | US$145.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Feb ’25 | US$121.92 | US$150.50 +23.4% | 2.4% | US$155.00 | US$145.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Jan ’25 | US$126.04 | US$150.50 +19.4% | 2.4% | US$155.00 | US$145.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Dec ’24 | US$139.71 | US$139.25 -0.3% | 8.5% | US$152.00 | US$125.00 | n/a | 4 |
| Nov ’24 | US$116.91 | US$125.75 +7.6% | 3.0% | US$130.00 | US$120.00 | US$216.00 | 4 |
| Oct ’24 | US$111.53 | US$123.20 +10.5% | 6.9% | US$130.00 | US$108.00 | US$211.09 | 5 |
| Sep ’24 | US$98.05 | US$112.60 +14.8% | 10.1% | US$130.00 | US$95.00 | US$203.76 | 5 |
| Aug ’24 | US$97.98 | US$108.83 +11.1% | 12.3% | US$130.00 | US$90.00 | US$174.34 | 6 |
| Jul ’24 | US$102.28 | US$108.83 +6.4% | 12.3% | US$130.00 | US$90.00 | US$175.67 | 6 |
| Jun ’24 | US$97.60 | US$107.60 +10.2% | 13.3% | US$130.00 | US$90.00 | US$202.15 | 5 |
| May ’24 | US$101.66 | US$107.60 +5.8% | 13.3% | US$130.00 | US$90.00 | US$162.53 | 5 |
| Apr ’24 | US$91.66 | US$104.00 +13.5% | 9.8% | US$115.00 | US$90.00 | US$149.42 | 5 |
| Mar ’24 | US$84.76 | US$100.20 +18.2% | 10.1% | US$115.00 | US$85.00 | US$128.73 | 5 |
| Feb ’24 | US$90.54 | US$100.20 +10.7% | 10.1% | US$115.00 | US$85.00 | US$121.92 | 5 |
| Jan ’24 | US$85.66 | US$100.20 +17.0% | 10.1% | US$115.00 | US$85.00 | US$126.04 | 5 |
| Dec ’23 | US$91.41 | US$100.00 +9.4% | 10.0% | US$115.00 | US$85.00 | US$139.71 | 5 |
| Nov ’23 | US$89.39 | US$98.75 +10.5% | 11.0% | US$115.00 | US$85.00 | US$116.91 | 4 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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