AeroVironment, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AVAV Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.6b

AeroVironment Valuation

Is AVAV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AVAV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AVAV ($164.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($376.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AVAV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AVAV?

Key metric: As AVAV is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AVAV. This is calculated by dividing AVAV's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AVAV's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio94.4x
EarningsUS$48.64m
Market CapUS$4.59b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AVAV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AVAV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.5x
HXL Hexcel
46.9x22.9%US$5.1b
MOG.A Moog
29.6x20.2%US$6.2b
HII Huntington Ingalls Industries
10.6x7.8%US$7.5b
WWD Woodward
26.7x10.5%US$10.0b
AVAV AeroVironment
94.4x36.2%US$4.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AVAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.4x) compared to the peer average (30.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AVAV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CVU CPI Aerostructures
2.9xn/aUS$50.31m
ETCC Environmental Tectonics
4.7xn/aUS$29.89m
AWIN AERWINS Technologies
0.00006xn/aUS$184.00
GIGA.Q Gresham Worldwide
n/an/aUS$7.00
No more companies available in this PE range
AVAV 94.4xIndustry Avg. 33.2xNo. of Companies6PE020406080100+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AVAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.4x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (33.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AVAV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AVAV PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio94.4x
Fair PE Ratio38.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AVAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AVAV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$164.03
US$230.74
+40.7%
4.5%US$245.00US$218.68n/a5
Dec ’25US$194.50
US$227.28
+16.9%
5.4%US$245.00US$210.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$216.00
US$231.00
+6.9%
5.9%US$245.00US$210.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$211.09
US$224.00
+6.1%
5.5%US$245.00US$210.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$203.76
US$225.00
+10.4%
6.6%US$245.00US$200.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$174.34
US$207.20
+18.8%
14.0%US$245.00US$161.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$175.67
US$207.20
+17.9%
14.0%US$245.00US$161.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$202.15
US$185.25
-8.4%
8.1%US$200.00US$161.00n/a4
May ’25US$162.53
US$180.25
+10.9%
9.7%US$200.00US$161.00n/a4
Apr ’25US$149.42
US$179.00
+19.8%
10.4%US$200.00US$160.00n/a4
Mar ’25US$128.73
US$150.50
+16.9%
2.4%US$155.00US$145.00n/a4
Feb ’25US$121.92
US$150.50
+23.4%
2.4%US$155.00US$145.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$126.04
US$150.50
+19.4%
2.4%US$155.00US$145.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$139.71
US$139.25
-0.3%
8.5%US$152.00US$125.00US$194.504
Nov ’24US$116.91
US$125.75
+7.6%
3.0%US$130.00US$120.00US$216.004
Oct ’24US$111.53
US$123.20
+10.5%
6.9%US$130.00US$108.00US$211.095
Sep ’24US$98.05
US$112.60
+14.8%
10.1%US$130.00US$95.00US$203.765
Aug ’24US$97.98
US$108.83
+11.1%
12.3%US$130.00US$90.00US$174.346
Jul ’24US$102.28
US$108.83
+6.4%
12.3%US$130.00US$90.00US$175.676
Jun ’24US$97.60
US$107.60
+10.2%
13.3%US$130.00US$90.00US$202.155
May ’24US$101.66
US$107.60
+5.8%
13.3%US$130.00US$90.00US$162.535
Apr ’24US$91.66
US$104.00
+13.5%
9.8%US$115.00US$90.00US$149.425
Mar ’24US$84.76
US$100.20
+18.2%
10.1%US$115.00US$85.00US$128.735
Feb ’24US$90.54
US$100.20
+10.7%
10.1%US$115.00US$85.00US$121.925
Jan ’24US$85.66
US$100.20
+17.0%
10.1%US$115.00US$85.00US$126.045
Dec ’23US$91.41
US$100.00
+9.4%
10.0%US$115.00US$85.00US$139.715

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:42
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/10/26
Annual Earnings2024/04/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

AeroVironment, Inc. is covered by 31 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Peter ArmentBaird
George PriceBB&T Capital Markets
Yi Hsiao MillwardBenchmark Company