First Commonwealth Financial Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (NYSE:FCF) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$121m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 13% to hit US$0.31 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for First Commonwealth Financial

Following the latest results, First Commonwealth Financial's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$486.6m in 2025. This would be a modest 6.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 4.4% to US$1.42 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$493.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.47 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$18.33, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic First Commonwealth Financial analyst has a price target of US$22.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$16.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that First Commonwealth Financial's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.8% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than First Commonwealth Financial.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for First Commonwealth Financial. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that First Commonwealth Financial's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for First Commonwealth Financial going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of First Commonwealth Financial's balance sheet, and whether we think First Commonwealth Financial is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.