Premier Financial Corp. Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 11%

The full-year results for Premier Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:PFC) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Premier Financial beat revenue forecasts by a solid 11% to hit US$303m. Statutory earnings per share came in at US$3.11, in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Premier Financial

After the latest results, the consensus from Premier Financial's four analysts is for revenues of US$265.6m in 2024, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 12% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 32% to US$2.12 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$267.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.25 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$25.50, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Premier Financial analyst has a price target of US$26.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$25.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 12% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Premier Financial is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Premier Financial. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Premier Financial's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$25.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Premier Financial going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Premier Financial that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.