Stock Analysis
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- NasdaqGS:ESSA
ESSA Bancorp's (NASDAQ:ESSA) earnings growth rate lags the 8.4% CAGR delivered to shareholders
While ESSA Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:ESSA) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 21% in the last quarter. On the other hand the share price is higher than it was three years ago. Arguably you'd have been better off buying an index fund, because the gain of 16% in three years isn't amazing.
Although ESSA Bancorp has shed US$25m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.
Check out our latest analysis for ESSA Bancorp
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During three years of share price growth, ESSA Bancorp achieved compound earnings per share growth of 19% per year. The average annual share price increase of 5% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 7.78.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that ESSA Bancorp has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, ESSA Bancorp's TSR for the last 3 years was 27%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While it's certainly disappointing to see that ESSA Bancorp shares lost 7.7% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 12%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 5% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - ESSA Bancorp has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
What are the risks and opportunities for ESSA Bancorp?
ESSA Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for ESSA Bank & Trust that provides a range of financial services to individuals, families, and businesses in Pennsylvania.
Rewards
Trading at 10.6% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings grew by 20.2% over the past year
Risks
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 6.4% per year for the next 3 years
Further research on
ESSA Bancorp
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqGS:ESSA
ESSA Bancorp
ESSA Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for ESSA Bank & Trust that provides a range of financial services to individuals, families, and businesses in Pennsylvania.
Flawless balance sheet, good value and pays a dividend.
