Earnings Miss: Colony Bankcorp, Inc. Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Colony Bankcorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBAN) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$28m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 11%, coming in at just US$0.34 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Colony Bankcorp

Following the latest results, Colony Bankcorp's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$126.8m in 2022. This would be a notable 18% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 56% to US$1.69. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$126.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.78 in 2022. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$22.50, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Colony Bankcorp, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$24.00 and the most bearish at US$21.50 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Colony Bankcorp is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Colony Bankcorp's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 24% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 18% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Colony Bankcorp to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$22.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Colony Bankcorp going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Colony Bankcorp (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.