What Li Auto (LI)'s Lower Delivery Guidance Means for Shareholders

• Li Auto Inc. reported its August 2025 delivery update and issued third quarter guidance, projecting vehicle deliveries between 90,000 and 95,000 and total revenues between RMB 24.8 billion (US$3.5 billion) and RMB 26.2 billion (US$3.7 billion), both representing a year-over-year decline.
• This guidance came shortly after a quarterly earnings report showing minimal growth, and ahead of the upcoming launch of the Li i6 battery electric SUV and other technological upgrades announced for September.
• We'll assess how Li Auto's projected drop in deliveries challenges previous assumptions about its revenue growth and competitive positioning.

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Li Auto Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Li Auto shareholder, an investor needs to believe that the company's ongoing innovation, especially in autonomous driving and new models, will ultimately drive long-term growth, despite temporary setbacks. The recent guidance pointing to a significant year-over-year drop in deliveries and revenue puts the spotlight on sales momentum as both the main near-term catalyst and the main risk, making the impact of this news decidedly material for the business outlook.

Among recent developments, the announcement of the upcoming Li i6 battery electric SUV is particularly relevant. With an entry price of RMB 250,000, the i6 launch looks set to address shifting consumer preferences and expand the product lineup, which is central to Li Auto’s strategy to recover sales growth after the expected shortfall in deliveries this quarter.

Yet, against this backdrop, investors should pay close attention to how intensifying competition in the NEV market could...

Read the full narrative on Li Auto (it's free!)

Li Auto's narrative projects CN¥249.5 billion in revenue and CN¥17.0 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 19.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of CN¥8.9 billion from the current CN¥8.1 billion.

Uncover how Li Auto's forecasts yield a $32.84 fair value, a 35% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Li Auto’s fair value between US$27.31 and US$32.84 per share. As delivery projections fall sharply for the third quarter, it’s clear opinions differ on growth expectations, explore these diverse analyses for a broader view.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Li Auto - why the stock might be worth just $27.31!

Build Your Own Li Auto Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Li Auto research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Li Auto research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Li Auto's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Li Auto?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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