Earnings Beat: Unimicron Technology Corp. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Investors in Unimicron Technology Corp. (TWSE:3037) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.1% to close at NT$184 following the release of its first-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of NT$26b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Unimicron Technology surprised by delivering a statutory profit of NT$1.59 per share, a notable 15% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Unimicron Technology

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Unimicron Technology's twelve analysts is for revenues of NT$121.0b in 2024. This would reflect a solid 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 37% to NT$9.26. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of NT$118.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of NT$9.46 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a a solid to revenue, the consensus also made a minor downgrade to its earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target was unchanged at NT$225, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Unimicron Technology analyst has a price target of NT$300 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at NT$120. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Unimicron Technology's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 23% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 10% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 11% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Unimicron Technology to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Unimicron Technology. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Unimicron Technology. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Unimicron Technology analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Unimicron Technology (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.