More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Captii Limited's (SGX:AWV) Shares After Tumbling 27%

Captii Limited (SGX:AWV) shares have had a horrible month, losing 27% after a relatively good period beforehand. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 45% share price drop.

Even after such a large drop in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Captii's P/S ratio of 0.4x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Communications industry in Singapore is about the same. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

View our latest analysis for Captii

How Has Captii Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Captii's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Captii, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Captii would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 24% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 28% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 36% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Captii is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Captii's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

The fact that Captii currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Captii that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Captii's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.