Here's Why We're Not Too Worried About Nelly Group's (STO:NELLY) Cash Burn Situation

Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. Nonetheless, only a fool would ignore the risk that a loss making company burns through its cash too quickly.

So, the natural question for Nelly Group (STO:NELLY) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

See our latest analysis for Nelly Group

How Long Is Nelly Group's Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. In June 2021, Nelly Group had kr185m in cash, and was debt-free. In the last year, its cash burn was kr110m. Therefore, from June 2021 it had roughly 20 months of cash runway. While that cash runway isn't too concerning, sensible holders would be peering into the distance, and considering what happens if the company runs out of cash. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.

Is Nelly Group's Revenue Growing?

Given that Nelly Group actually had positive free cash flow last year, before burning cash this year, we'll focus on its operating revenue to get a measure of the business trajectory. We think that it's fairly positive to see that revenue grew 49% in the last twelve months. In reality, this article only makes a short study of the company's growth data. This graph of historic revenue growth shows how Nelly Group is building its business over time.

How Easily Can Nelly Group Raise Cash?

While Nelly Group is showing solid revenue growth, it's still worth considering how easily it could raise more cash, even just to fuel faster growth. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

Since it has a market capitalisation of kr629m, Nelly Group's kr110m in cash burn equates to about 18% of its market value. As a result, we'd venture that the company could raise more cash for growth without much trouble, albeit at the cost of some dilution.

So, Should We Worry About Nelly Group's Cash Burn?

The good news is that in our view Nelly Group's cash burn situation gives shareholders real reason for optimism. Not only was its cash runway quite good, but its revenue growth was a real positive. Cash burning companies are always on the riskier side of things, but after considering all of the factors discussed in this short piece, we're not too worried about its rate of cash burn. On another note, we conducted an in-depth investigation of the company, and identified 3 warning signs for Nelly Group (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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