BHG Group (OM:BHG) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of BHG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BHG (SEK34.4) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SEK72.6)

BHG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	0/6

BHG Stock Overview

BHG Group AB (publ) operates as a consumer e-commerce company in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, rest of Europe, and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 52.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 15.42% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

BHG Group Competitors

Boozt

OM:BOOZT

kr4.3b

Dustin Group

OM:DUST

kr6.8b

Rugvista Group

OM:RUG

kr975.9m

Pierce Group

OM:PIERCE

kr337.3m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for BHG Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	kr34.40
52 Week High	kr172.30
52 Week Low	kr32.40
Beta	0.77
1 Month Change	-33.27%
3 Month Change	-47.28%
1 Year Change	-79.14%
3 Year Change	-13.35%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-18.10%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 04

BHG Group AB (publ)'s (STO:BHG) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 71% Above Its Share Price

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of BHG Group AB (publ) ( STO:BHG ) by taking the...

Shareholder Returns

	BHG	SE Online Retail	SE Market
7D	0.9%	0.2%	1.1%
1Y	-79.1%	-71.1%	-20.9%

Return vs Industry: BHG underperformed the Swedish Online Retail industry which returned -71.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BHG underperformed the Swedish Market which returned -20.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BHG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BHG volatility
BHG Average Weekly Movement	10.2%
Online Retail Industry Average Movement	9.7%
Market Average Movement	7.4%
10% most volatile stocks in SE Market	12.2%
10% least volatile stocks in SE Market	4.7%

Stable Share Price: BHG is more volatile than 75% of Swedish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BHG's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of Swedish stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2006	3,000	Adam Schatz	https://www.wearebhg.com

BHG Group AB (publ) operates as a consumer e-commerce company in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Do-It-Yourself (DIY) and Home Furnishing. The company offers a range of brands totalling approximately 1.5 million products within DIY, leisure, furniture, and furnishings.

BHG Group Fundamentals Summary

How do BHG Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BHG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	kr4.94b
Earnings (TTM)	kr478.00m
Revenue (TTM)	kr13.21b

10.1x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is BHG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BHG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	kr13.21b
Cost of Revenue	kr10.77b
Gross Profit	kr2.44b
Other Expenses	kr1.96b
Earnings	kr478.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 20, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.41
Gross Margin	18.47%
Net Profit Margin	3.62%
Debt/Equity Ratio	92.7%

How did BHG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BHG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BHG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BHG. This is calculated by dividing BHG's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BHG's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	kr4.94b

BHG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	13.1x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BHG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BHG PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for BHG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21.4x
BOOZT Boozt	31.8x	31.1%	kr4.3b
DUST Dustin Group	14.7x	24.2%	kr6.8b
RUG Rugvista Group	11.5x	19.2%	kr975.9m
PIERCE Pierce Group	29.7x	80.2%	kr337.3m
BHG BHG Group	10.1x	15.4%	kr4.9b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BHG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the peer average (21.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BHG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Online Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BHG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the Swedish Online Retail industry average (21.3x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BHG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BHG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.1x
Fair PE Ratio	25.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BHG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BHG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BHG (SEK34.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK72.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BHG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: BHG is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.7x)

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Future Growth

How is BHG Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

15.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BHG's forecast earnings growth (15.4% per year) is above the savings rate (0.3%).

Earnings vs Market: BHG's earnings (15.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (9.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BHG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BHG's revenue (11.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Swedish market (5.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BHG's revenue (11.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BHG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.9%).

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Past Performance

How has BHG Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

69.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BHG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BHG's current net profit margins (3.6%) are lower than last year (4.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BHG has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 69.9% per year.

Accelerating Growth: BHG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: BHG had negative earnings growth (-0.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Online Retail industry average (-18%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: BHG's Return on Equity (9.1%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is BHG Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BHG's short term assets (SEK4.0B) exceed its short term liabilities (SEK3.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: BHG's short term assets (SEK4.0B) do not cover its long term liabilities (SEK6.0B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BHG's net debt to equity ratio (83.2%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: BHG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 63.9% to 92.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: BHG's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: BHG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (11.6x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is BHG Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BHG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BHG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BHG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BHG's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as BHG has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Adam Schatz

2.33yrs

Tenure

kr4,600,000

Compensation

Mr. Adam Schatz serves as President, Chief Executive Officer and Head of the Home Furnishing segment at BHG Group AB (publ) (formerly known as Bygghemma Group First AB (publ)) since February 20, 2020. He h...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Adam's total compensation ($USD454.00K) is about average for companies of similar size in the Swedish market ($USD547.17K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Adam's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BHG's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.4 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: BHG's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 15.9%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/28 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/28 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31