What You Need To Know About The Calliditas Therapeutics AB (publ) (STO:CALTX) Analyst Downgrade Today

The analysts covering Calliditas Therapeutics AB (publ) (STO:CALTX) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

After this downgrade, Calliditas Therapeutics' nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr1.4b in 2023. This would be a meaningful 18% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 51% to kr2.65 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr1.5b and losses of kr4.75 per share in 2023. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a very favorable reduction to losses per share in particular.

See our latest analysis for Calliditas Therapeutics

There was no major change to the kr237 average analyst price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Calliditas Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 38% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 67% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 24% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Calliditas Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Calliditas Therapeutics after today.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Calliditas Therapeutics going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.