Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For Calliditas Therapeutics AB (publ) (STO:CALTX) After Its Latest Results

Calliditas Therapeutics AB (publ) (STO:CALTX) just released its yearly report and things are looking bullish. Calliditas Therapeutics beat expectations with revenues of kr1.2b arriving 6.8% ahead of forecasts. The company also reported a statutory loss of kr8.69, 3.6% smaller than was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Calliditas Therapeutics

Following the latest results, Calliditas Therapeutics' nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr1.98b in 2024. This would be a sizeable 64% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Calliditas Therapeutics is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of kr6.39 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr2.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr10.38 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Calliditas Therapeutics' prospects following the latest results, administering a real cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the kr200 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Calliditas Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr270 and the most bearish at kr140 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Calliditas Therapeutics'historical trends, as the 64% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 64% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 25% per year. So it's pretty clear that Calliditas Therapeutics is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Calliditas Therapeutics' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Calliditas Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Calliditas Therapeutics' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.