Should Weakness in Loomis AB (publ)'s (STO:LOOMIS) Stock Be Seen As A Sign That Market Will Correct The Share Price Given Decent Financials?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 12, 2022
OM:LOOMIS
Source: Shutterstock

It is hard to get excited after looking at Loomis' (STO:LOOMIS) recent performance, when its stock has declined 6.7% over the past month. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. In this article, we decided to focus on Loomis' ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for Loomis

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Loomis is:

11% = kr1.1b ÷ kr10b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every SEK1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated SEK0.11 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Loomis' Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

To begin with, Loomis seems to have a respectable ROE. Even when compared to the industry average of 10% the company's ROE looks quite decent. However, while Loomis has a pretty respectable ROE, its five year net income decline rate was 9.2% . So, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

That being said, we compared Loomis' performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 9.7% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
OM:LOOMIS Past Earnings Growth April 12th 2022

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Loomis is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Loomis Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 48% (that is, a retention ratio of 52%), the fact that Loomis' earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Additionally, Loomis has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 46%. Still, forecasts suggest that Loomis' future ROE will rise to 18% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Loomis certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that's preventing growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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