OX2 AB (publ) Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

It's been a pretty great week for OX2 AB (publ) (STO:OX2) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to kr53.50 in the week since its latest yearly results. Revenues of kr7.8b came up short as it was 14% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits didn't suffer quite so much, with statutory per-share earnings of kr3.79 being coming in 7.2% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for OX2

Following the latest results, OX2's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr11.9b in 2024. This would be a major 52% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 8.6% to kr4.12. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr11.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr4.14 in 2024. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a small lift in to revenue forecasts.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of kr72.75, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values OX2 at kr86.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr60.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the OX2's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting OX2's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 52% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 14% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect OX2 to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for OX2 going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for OX2 that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.