Instalco AB (publ) Just Missed EPS By 22%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a sad week for Instalco AB (publ) (STO:INSTAL), who've watched their investment drop 13% to kr33.78 in the week since the company reported its third-quarter result. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of kr3.1b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 22% to hit kr0.32 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Instalco

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Instalco are now predicting revenues of kr14.6b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 4.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 26% to kr2.35. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr14.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr2.40 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of kr51.25, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Instalco at kr58.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr42.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Instalco shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Instalco's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Instalco.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Instalco's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Instalco going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Instalco you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.