Here's Why Cognor Holding's (WSE:COG) Statutory Earnings Are Arguably Too Conservative

Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. Having said that, sometimes statutory profit levels are not a good guide to ongoing profitability, because some short term one-off factor has impacted profit levels. This article will consider whether Cognor Holding's (WSE:COG) statutory profits are a good guide to its underlying earnings.

We like the fact that Cognor Holding made a profit of zł20.5m on its revenue of zł1.75b, in the last year. As you can see in the chart below, its profit has declined over the last three years, even though its revenue has increased.

See our latest analysis for Cognor Holding

Of course, it is only sensible to look beyond the statutory profits and question how well those numbers represent the sustainable earnings power of the business. So today we'll look at what Cognor Holding's cashflow tells us about the quality of its earnings. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

A Closer Look At Cognor Holding's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

For the year to September 2020, Cognor Holding had an accrual ratio of -0.26. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of zł140m, well over the zł20.5m it reported in profit. Cognor Holding shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.

Our Take On Cognor Holding's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, Cognor Holding's accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that Cognor Holding's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Cognor Holding at this point in time. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Cognor Holding (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Cognor Holding's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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