WSE:COG

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Cognor Holding S.A. produces and distributes steel products, steel billets, colored scrap products, and other products in Poland.

Rewards

Trading at 27.3% below its fair value

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of -16.4% per year for the next 3 years

Has a high level of debt

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Profit margins (1%) are lower than last year (4.4%)

+ 2 more risks


Snowflake Analysis

Excellent balance sheet and good value.

Share Price & News

How has Cognor Holding's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: COG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-5.1%

COG

-0.5%

PL Metals and Mining

-0.09%

PL Market


1 Year Return

-34.9%

COG

-18.0%

PL Metals and Mining

-7.7%

PL Market

Return vs Industry: COG underperformed the Polish Metals and Mining industry which returned -18% over the past year.

Return vs Market: COG underperformed the Polish Market which returned -7.6% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

COGIndustryMarket
7 Day-5.1%-0.5%-0.09%
30 Day-6.2%-4.2%-1.8%
90 Day-4.7%2.9%-1.0%
1 Year-22.9%-34.9%-16.0%-18.0%-4.9%-7.7%
3 Year-23.0%-38.6%-36.0%-38.6%-4.4%-11.2%
5 Year23.3%-1.6%-11.1%-18.2%3.0%-10.0%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Cognor Holding's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Cognor Holding undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

27.3%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: COG (PLN1.21) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN1.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: COG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (7.6x) compared to the Metals and Mining industry average (7.6x).

PE vs Market: COG is good value based on its PE Ratio (7.6x) compared to the Polish market (11.9x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: COG's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: COG is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.6x) compared to the PL Metals and Mining industry average (0.8x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Cognor Holding forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

-16.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: COG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-16.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: COG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: COG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: COG's revenue (4.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Polish market (6.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: COG's revenue (4.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: COG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Cognor Holding performed over the past 5 years?

52.5%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: COG has a large one-off gain of PLN5.5M impacting its September 30 2019 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: COG's current net profit margins (1%) are lower than last year (4.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: COG has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 52.5% per year.

Accelerating Growth: COG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: COG had negative earnings growth (-78.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (-42.4%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: COG's Return on Equity (6.9%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Cognor Holding's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: COG's short term assets (PLN557.6M) exceed its short term liabilities (PLN440.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: COG's short term assets (PLN557.6M) exceed its long term liabilities (PLN280.0M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: COG's debt to equity ratio (81.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: COG's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 212.8% to 81.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: COG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (77.8%).

Interest Coverage: COG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (5.9x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: COG has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: COG's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 2.4x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Cognor Holding's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

6.45%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company0%marketbottom25%2.3%markettop25%6.7%industryaverage6.6%forecastin3Years6.4%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate COG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate COG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if COG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if COG's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: COG is not paying a notable dividend for the Polish market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of COG's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Polish market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.9yrs

Average board tenure


CEO

Przemyslaw Sztuczkowski 0

9yrs

Tenure

0

Mr. Przemyslaw Sztuczkowski has been the Chief Executive Officer at Cognor Holding S.A. since February 18, 2011 and has been its President of Management Board since March 13, 2011. Mr. Sztuczkowski has bee ...


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Zbigniew Lapinski
Secretary of the Supervisory Board & Member of Supervisory Board14.7yrsno datano data
Jerzy Kak
Member of Supervisory Board8.9yrsno datano data
Marek Rocki
Member of Supervisory Board8.9yrsno datano data
Hubert Janiszewski
Chairman of the Supervisory Board0yrsno datano data
Piotr Freyberg
Vice Chairman of the Supervisory Board0yrsno datano data

8.9yrs

Average Tenure

69.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: COG's board of directors are considered experienced (8.9 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 8.7%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Cognor Holding S.A.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Cognor Holding S.A.
  • Ticker: COG
  • Exchange: WSE
  • Founded: 1946
  • Industry: Steel
  • Sector: Materials
  • Market Cap: zł153.686m
  • Shares outstanding: 123.94m
  • Website: https://www.cognor.eu

Location

  • Cognor Holding S.A.
  • ul. Zielona 26
  • Poraj
  • 42-360
  • Poland

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
COGWSE (Warsaw Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesPLPLNApr 1997
0LSALSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBPLNApr 1997

Biography

Cognor Holding S.A. produces and distributes steel products, steel billets, colored scrap products, and other products in Poland. It offers flat plates and bars, slabs, round and square bars, reinforcing bars, T-profiles, equal and unequal side angles, steel billets with rounded edger for forgings, metal sheets, carbon and medium-alloy steels, and high-alloy and special steels. Cognor Holding S.A. also engages in the purchasing, processing, treatment, and sale of steel scrap; and the processing of steel scrap into billets, as well as billets into steel products. It also exports its products primarily to Germany and other European countries. The company was formerly known as Cognor S A and changed its name to Cognor Holding S.A. in November 2016. Cognor Holding S.A. was founded in 1946 and is based in Poraj, Poland. Cognor Holding S.A. is a subsidiary of PS HoldCo Sp. z o.o. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/15 20:38
End of Day Share Price2020/02/14 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.