Cognor Holding Valuation

Is COG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of COG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: COG (PLN9.49) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN13.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for COG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

COG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA5.7x
PEG Ratio-0.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does COG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for COG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26.8x
STP Stalprodukt
5.4x-34.0%zł1.2b
JSW Jastrzebska Spólka Weglowa
1.9x-13.9%zł3.9b
FER Ferrum
94.2xn/azł268.7m
ODL Odlewnie Polskie
5.8xn/azł202.1m
COG Cognor Holding
4.7x-36.1%zł1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: COG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.7x) compared to the peer average (26.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does COG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a28.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a28.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: COG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.7x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (12.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is COG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

COG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio4.7x
Fair PE Ratio3.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: COG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst COG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentzł9.49
zł5.36
-43.6%
17.6%zł6.30zł4.41n/a2
Apr ’25zł8.47
zł5.36
-36.8%
17.6%zł6.30zł4.41n/a2
Mar ’25zł8.06
zł5.36
-33.6%
17.6%zł6.30zł4.41n/a2
Feb ’25zł7.50
zł5.36
-28.6%
17.6%zł6.30zł4.41n/a2
Jan ’25zł8.34
zł5.36
-35.8%
17.6%zł6.30zł4.41n/a2
Dec ’24zł8.53
zł5.64
-33.9%
15.4%zł6.30zł4.41n/a3
Nov ’24zł8.31
zł5.64
-32.2%
15.4%zł6.30zł4.41n/a3
Oct ’24zł7.09
zł6.40
-9.7%
26.8%zł8.60zł4.41n/a3
Sep ’24zł8.44
zł7.64
-9.5%
13.6%zł8.60zł6.20n/a3
Aug ’24zł8.48
zł7.64
-9.9%
13.6%zł8.60zł6.20n/a3
Jul ’24zł7.54
zł7.16
-5.0%
13.4%zł8.12zł6.20n/a2
Jun ’24zł6.97
zł7.16
+2.7%
13.4%zł8.12zł6.20n/a2
May ’24zł10.42
zł7.16
-31.3%
13.4%zł8.12zł6.20n/a2
Apr ’24zł10.36
zł7.16
-30.9%
13.4%zł8.12zł6.20zł8.472
Mar ’24zł8.72
zł4.67
-46.5%
32.9%zł6.20zł3.13zł8.062
Feb ’24zł7.14
zł4.67
-34.7%
32.9%zł6.20zł3.13zł7.502
Jan ’24zł4.50
zł4.67
+3.7%
32.9%zł6.20zł3.13zł8.342
Dec ’23zł3.95
zł4.67
+18.1%
32.9%zł6.20zł3.13zł8.532
Nov ’23zł3.69
zł4.67
+26.4%
32.9%zł6.20zł3.13zł8.312
Oct ’23zł3.50
zł4.67
+33.3%
32.9%zł6.20zł3.13zł7.092
Sep ’23zł3.65
zł4.67
+27.8%
32.9%zł6.20zł3.13zł8.442
Aug ’23zł4.22
zł4.67
+10.5%
32.9%zł6.20zł3.13zł8.482
Jul ’23zł4.02
zł5.89
+46.7%
4.9%zł6.20zł5.50zł7.543
Jun ’23zł4.99
zł5.89
+18.2%
4.9%zł6.20zł5.50zł6.973
May ’23zł5.92
zł6.13
+3.5%
10.2%zł6.75zł5.50zł10.422
Apr ’23zł6.07
zł4.80
-20.9%
14.6%zł5.50zł4.10zł10.362

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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