Cognor Holding S.A. (WSE:COG) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Cognor Holding S.A. (WSE:COG) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the PL Metals and Mining industry.

The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (PLN, Millions)	zł203.0m	zł236.5m	zł102.0m	zł112.0m	zł93.3m	zł83.2m	zł77.5m	zł74.4m	zł73.0m	zł72.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -16.66%	Est @ -10.87%	Est @ -6.82%	Est @ -3.98%	Est @ -1.99%	Est @ -0.6%
Present Value (PLN, Millions) Discounted @ 9.9%	zł185	zł196	zł76.8	zł76.7	zł58.1	zł47.1	zł39.9	zł34.9	zł31.1	zł28.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = zł772m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = zł73m× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (9.9%– 2.6%) = zł1.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= zł1.0b÷ ( 1 + 9.9%)¹⁰= zł395m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is zł1.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of zł3.8, the company appears quite good value at a 45% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Cognor Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.437. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Cognor Holding, we've put together three additional items you should explore:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Cognor Holding (at least 2 which are a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
2. Future Earnings: How does COG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the WSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.