Alior Bank S.A.

WSE:ALR Stock Report

Market Cap: zł11.2b

Alior Bank Valuation

Is ALR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALR (PLN85.98) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN250.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALR?

Key metric: As ALR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ALR. This is calculated by dividing ALR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ALR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio4.6x
Earningszł2.42b
Market Capzł11.23b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.5x
MIL Bank Millennium
16.3x32.9%zł10.8b
BHW Bank Handlowy w Warszawie
6.3x-9.9%zł11.6b
BNP BNP Paribas Bank Polska
8.6x5.2%zł12.6b
MBK mBank
18.8x29.9%zł23.3b
ALR Alior Bank
4.6x-6.3%zł11.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the peer average (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ALR 4.6xIndustry Avg. 7.8xNo. of Companies42PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio4.6x
Fair PE Ratio7.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentzł85.98
zł109.79
+27.7%
8.7%zł125.00zł96.70n/a7
Dec ’25zł91.30
zł110.17
+20.7%
9.4%zł125.00zł96.70n/a7
Nov ’25zł87.40
zł108.36
+24.0%
7.8%zł124.00zł96.70n/a8
Oct ’25zł91.20
zł108.74
+19.2%
7.9%zł124.00zł96.70n/a8
Sep ’25zł102.50
zł106.89
+4.3%
11.2%zł124.00zł81.90n/a8
Aug ’25zł92.94
zł102.89
+10.7%
10.2%zł115.00zł81.90n/a8
Jul ’25zł103.65
zł97.30
-6.1%
20.2%zł115.00zł52.91n/a8
Jun ’25zł95.66
zł97.41
+1.8%
20.1%zł115.00zł52.91n/a8
May ’25zł103.80
zł90.04
-13.3%
27.7%zł115.00zł50.00n/a8
Apr ’25zł97.94
zł81.66
-16.6%
25.3%zł111.10zł50.00n/a8
Mar ’25zł94.82
zł73.13
-22.9%
20.4%zł94.00zł50.00n/a9
Feb ’25zł75.72
zł70.25
-7.2%
18.6%zł87.00zł50.00n/a9
Jan ’25zł76.34
zł66.33
-13.1%
20.6%zł87.00zł43.00n/a9
Dec ’24zł79.00
zł64.45
-18.4%
25.0%zł87.00zł32.00zł91.309
Nov ’24zł66.18
zł60.69
-8.3%
22.0%zł81.00zł32.00zł87.408
Oct ’24zł51.80
zł54.90
+6.0%
21.0%zł70.00zł30.80zł91.208
Sep ’24zł55.54
zł55.20
-0.6%
20.7%zł70.00zł30.80zł102.508
Aug ’24zł57.60
zł50.43
-12.5%
22.6%zł64.00zł26.50zł92.948
Jul ’24zł48.36
zł48.40
+0.08%
22.7%zł64.00zł26.50zł103.658
Jun ’24zł41.59
zł46.65
+12.2%
20.1%zł63.00zł26.50zł95.668
May ’24zł43.40
zł46.68
+7.5%
17.4%zł63.00zł29.50zł103.809
Apr ’24zł38.75
zł41.99
+8.4%
13.2%zł50.00zł29.50zł97.949
Mar ’24zł40.25
zł40.15
-0.2%
12.8%zł48.20zł29.80zł94.829
Feb ’24zł39.25
zł40.15
+2.3%
12.8%zł48.20zł29.80zł75.729
Jan ’24zł34.27
zł39.75
+16.0%
11.6%zł44.89zł29.80zł76.349
Dec ’23zł35.95
zł38.31
+6.6%
14.4%zł44.89zł27.30zł79.009

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 07:26
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alior Bank S.A. is covered by 18 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Dariusz GorskiBanco Santander
Ivan BokhmatBarclays
Kamil KliszczBiuro maklerskie mBanku