Alior Bank Valuation
Is ALR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ALR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ALR (PLN103.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN172.25)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ALR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALR?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is ALR's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | zł13.56b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | n/a |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | n/a |
| PEG Ratio | -0.7x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does ALR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 11.8x | ||
BHW Bank Handlowy w Warszawie | 6.4x | -11.1% | zł14.5b |
MIL Bank Millennium | 19.4x | 32.1% | zł11.2b |
BNP BNP Paribas Bank Polska | 14.8x | 15.6% | zł15.0b |
PEO Bank Polska Kasa Opieki | 6.6x | -5.8% | zł43.9b |
ALR Alior Bank | 6x | -8.3% | zł13.6b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ALR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ALR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 6x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 8x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | zł103.90 | zł90.04 -13.3% | 27.7% | zł115.00 | zł50.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Apr ’25 | zł97.94 | zł81.66 -16.6% | 25.3% | zł111.10 | zł50.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Mar ’25 | zł94.82 | zł73.13 -22.9% | 20.4% | zł94.00 | zł50.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Feb ’25 | zł75.72 | zł70.25 -7.2% | 18.6% | zł87.00 | zł50.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Jan ’25 | zł76.34 | zł66.33 -13.1% | 20.6% | zł87.00 | zł43.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Dec ’24 | zł79.00 | zł64.45 -18.4% | 25.0% | zł87.00 | zł32.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Nov ’24 | zł66.18 | zł60.69 -8.3% | 22.0% | zł81.00 | zł32.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Oct ’24 | zł51.80 | zł54.90 +6.0% | 21.0% | zł70.00 | zł30.80 | n/a | 8 |
| Sep ’24 | zł55.54 | zł55.20 -0.6% | 20.7% | zł70.00 | zł30.80 | n/a | 8 |
| Aug ’24 | zł57.60 | zł50.43 -12.5% | 22.6% | zł64.00 | zł26.50 | n/a | 8 |
| Jul ’24 | zł48.36 | zł48.40 +0.08% | 22.7% | zł64.00 | zł26.50 | n/a | 8 |
| Jun ’24 | zł41.59 | zł46.65 +12.2% | 20.1% | zł63.00 | zł26.50 | n/a | 8 |
| May ’24 | zł43.40 | zł46.68 +7.5% | 17.4% | zł63.00 | zł29.50 | zł103.80 | 9 |
| Apr ’24 | zł38.75 | zł41.99 +8.4% | 13.2% | zł50.00 | zł29.50 | zł97.94 | 9 |
| Mar ’24 | zł40.25 | zł40.15 -0.2% | 12.8% | zł48.20 | zł29.80 | zł94.82 | 9 |
| Feb ’24 | zł39.25 | zł40.15 +2.3% | 12.8% | zł48.20 | zł29.80 | zł75.72 | 9 |
| Jan ’24 | zł34.27 | zł39.75 +16.0% | 11.6% | zł44.89 | zł29.80 | zł76.34 | 9 |
| Dec ’23 | zł35.95 | zł38.31 +6.6% | 14.4% | zł44.89 | zł27.30 | zł79.00 | 9 |
| Nov ’23 | zł29.40 | zł36.33 +23.6% | 17.4% | zł44.89 | zł26.70 | zł66.18 | 9 |
| Oct ’23 | zł23.12 | zł35.26 +52.5% | 16.7% | zł42.90 | zł26.70 | zł51.80 | 8 |
| Sep ’23 | zł25.40 | zł39.20 +54.3% | 30.7% | zł70.00 | zł26.70 | zł55.54 | 9 |
| Aug ’23 | zł25.25 | zł44.26 +75.3% | 30.4% | zł70.00 | zł29.70 | zł57.60 | 9 |
| Jul ’23 | zł26.50 | zł52.02 +96.3% | 29.4% | zł75.00 | zł32.30 | zł48.36 | 9 |
| Jun ’23 | zł33.65 | zł60.08 +78.6% | 19.9% | zł75.00 | zł32.30 | zł41.59 | 9 |
| May ’23 | zł36.34 | zł61.69 +69.8% | 13.9% | zł75.00 | zł46.80 | zł43.40 | 9 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.