BNP Paribas Bank Polska S.A.

WSE:BNP Stock Report

Market Cap: zł12.4b

BNP Paribas Bank Polska Valuation

Is BNP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BNP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BNP (PLN84.2) is trading above our estimate of fair value (PLN18.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BNP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BNP?

Key metric: As BNP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BNP. This is calculated by dividing BNP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BNP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.5x
Earningszł1.47b
Market Capzł12.44b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BNP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BNP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.3x
BHW Bank Handlowy w Warszawie
6.2x-8.2%zł11.4b
ALR Alior Bank
4.7x-10.1%zł11.4b
MIL Bank Millennium
15.4x31.8%zł10.2b
MBK mBank
18.7x29.2%zł23.2b
BNP BNP Paribas Bank Polska
8.5x18.8%zł12.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BNP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the peer average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BNP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BNP 8.5xIndustry Avg. 7.3xNo. of Companies45PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BNP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BNP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BNP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.5x
Fair PE Ratio11x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BNP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BNP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentzł84.20
zł109.50
+30.0%
23.6%zł143.23zł69.50n/a7
Nov ’25zł86.40
zł109.98
+27.3%
22.9%zł143.23zł69.50n/a7
Oct ’25zł93.00
zł109.98
+18.3%
22.9%zł143.23zł69.50n/a7
Sep ’25zł104.00
zł110.70
+6.4%
22.8%zł143.23zł69.50n/a7
Aug ’25zł102.00
zł108.83
+6.7%
21.4%zł132.15zł69.50n/a7
Jul ’25zł102.00
zł109.23
+7.1%
20.8%zł132.15zł69.50n/a7
Jun ’25zł96.60
zł109.52
+13.4%
20.9%zł132.15zł69.50n/a7
May ’25zł101.00
zł111.19
+10.1%
14.7%zł132.15zł78.98n/a6
Apr ’25zł109.00
zł102.70
-5.8%
19.6%zł120.00zł60.19n/a6
Mar ’25zł105.00
zł94.20
-10.3%
18.0%zł110.00zł60.19n/a6
Feb ’25zł89.00
zł91.00
+2.2%
14.8%zł110.00zł73.00n/a6
Jan ’25zł85.60
zł91.17
+6.5%
14.5%zł110.00zł74.00n/a6
Dec ’24zł79.20
zł87.50
+10.5%
15.2%zł110.00zł74.00n/a6
Nov ’24zł64.60
zł71.48
+10.7%
6.7%zł78.00zł64.00zł86.406
Oct ’24zł59.40
zł70.15
+18.1%
5.4%zł76.00zł64.00zł93.006
Sep ’24zł63.80
zł70.22
+10.1%
5.4%zł76.00zł64.00zł104.006
Aug ’24zł65.60
zł69.86
+6.5%
5.8%zł76.00zł64.00zł102.005
Jul ’24zł60.00
zł66.06
+10.1%
6.0%zł72.00zł60.00zł102.005
Jun ’24zł51.20
zł61.32
+19.8%
6.0%zł67.00zł57.10zł96.605
May ’24zł52.60
zł61.52
+17.0%
6.2%zł67.00zł57.10zł101.005
Apr ’24zł53.20
zł61.52
+15.6%
6.2%zł67.00zł57.10zł109.005
Mar ’24zł49.60
zł61.38
+23.8%
4.2%zł65.00zł57.10zł105.005
Feb ’24zł53.00
zł61.58
+16.2%
4.6%zł66.00zł57.10zł89.005
Jan ’24zł56.00
zł61.18
+9.3%
4.7%zł66.00zł57.10zł85.605
Dec ’23zł58.00
zł58.78
+1.3%
4.3%zł62.00zł55.00zł79.205
Nov ’23zł50.00
zł60.25
+20.5%
6.1%zł65.00zł55.00zł64.604

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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