BNP Paribas Bank Polska Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of BNP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BNP (PLN85.2) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (PLN18.71)

Is BNP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BNP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BNP (PLN85.2) is trading above our estimate of fair value (PLN18.71)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BNP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BNP?

Key metric: As BNP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BNP. This is calculated by dividing BNP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BNP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	8.6x
Earnings	zł1.47b
Market Cap	zł12.59b

BNP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BNP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BNP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.5x
BHW Bank Handlowy w Warszawie	6.3x	-9.9%	zł11.6b
ALR Alior Bank	4.6x	-6.3%	zł11.2b
MIL Bank Millennium	16.3x	32.9%	zł10.8b
MBK mBank	18.8x	29.9%	zł23.3b
BNP BNP Paribas Bank Polska	8.6x	5.2%	zł12.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BNP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the peer average (11.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BNP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BNP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BNP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BNP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8.6x
Fair PE Ratio	8.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BNP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BNP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	zł85.20	zł102.06 +19.8%	20.3%	zł127.00	zł69.50	n/a	7
Dec ’25	zł81.80	zł107.07 +30.9%	23.6%	zł143.23	zł69.50	n/a	7
Nov ’25	zł86.40	zł109.98 +27.3%	22.9%	zł143.23	zł69.50	n/a	7
Oct ’25	zł93.00	zł109.98 +18.3%	22.9%	zł143.23	zł69.50	n/a	7
Sep ’25	zł104.00	zł110.70 +6.4%	22.8%	zł143.23	zł69.50	n/a	7
Aug ’25	zł102.00	zł108.83 +6.7%	21.4%	zł132.15	zł69.50	n/a	7
Jul ’25	zł102.00	zł109.23 +7.1%	20.8%	zł132.15	zł69.50	n/a	7
Jun ’25	zł96.60	zł109.52 +13.4%	20.9%	zł132.15	zł69.50	n/a	7
May ’25	zł101.00	zł111.19 +10.1%	14.7%	zł132.15	zł78.98	n/a	6
Apr ’25	zł109.00	zł102.70 -5.8%	19.6%	zł120.00	zł60.19	n/a	6
Mar ’25	zł105.00	zł94.20 -10.3%	18.0%	zł110.00	zł60.19	n/a	6
Feb ’25	zł89.00	zł91.00 +2.2%	14.8%	zł110.00	zł73.00	n/a	6
Jan ’25	zł85.60	zł91.17 +6.5%	14.5%	zł110.00	zł74.00	n/a	6
Dec ’24	zł79.20	zł87.50 +10.5%	15.2%	zł110.00	zł74.00	zł81.80	6
Nov ’24	zł64.60	zł71.48 +10.7%	6.7%	zł78.00	zł64.00	zł86.40	6
Oct ’24	zł59.40	zł70.15 +18.1%	5.4%	zł76.00	zł64.00	zł93.00	6
Sep ’24	zł63.80	zł70.22 +10.1%	5.4%	zł76.00	zł64.00	zł104.00	6
Aug ’24	zł65.60	zł69.86 +6.5%	5.8%	zł76.00	zł64.00	zł102.00	5
Jul ’24	zł60.00	zł66.06 +10.1%	6.0%	zł72.00	zł60.00	zł102.00	5
Jun ’24	zł51.20	zł61.32 +19.8%	6.0%	zł67.00	zł57.10	zł96.60	5
May ’24	zł52.60	zł61.52 +17.0%	6.2%	zł67.00	zł57.10	zł101.00	5
Apr ’24	zł53.20	zł61.52 +15.6%	6.2%	zł67.00	zł57.10	zł109.00	5
Mar ’24	zł49.60	zł61.38 +23.8%	4.2%	zł65.00	zł57.10	zł105.00	5
Feb ’24	zł53.00	zł61.58 +16.2%	4.6%	zł66.00	zł57.10	zł89.00	5
Jan ’24	zł56.00	zł61.18 +9.3%	4.7%	zł66.00	zł57.10	zł85.60	5
Dec ’23	zł58.00	zł58.78 +1.3%	4.3%	zł62.00	zł55.00	zł79.20	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/30 09:32
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

BNP Paribas Bank Polska S.A. is covered by 9 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Kamil Kliszcz	Biuro maklerskie mBanku
Andrzej Powierza	Citigroup Inc
Mladen Dodig	Erste Group Bank AG