Caterpillar Inc.

BVL:CAT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$174.0b

Caterpillar Valuation

Is CAT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CAT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CAT ($382.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($458.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CAT is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CAT?

Key metric: As CAT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CAT. This is calculated by dividing CAT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CAT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.3x
EarningsUS$10.68b
Market CapUS$173.99b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CAT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CAT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.3x
PCAR PACCAR
11.7x-0.1%US$56.4b
VOLV B AB Volvo
10.5x0.8%SEK 544.8b
CMI Cummins
23x7.4%US$48.0b
WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
31.9x15.9%US$33.2b
CAT Caterpillar
16.3x4.1%US$174.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the peer average (19.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CAT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Machinery Industry?

30 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CAT 16.3xIndustry Avg. 21.7xNo. of Companies199PE01632486480+
30 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the Global Machinery industry average (21.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CAT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CAT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.3x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CAT's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CAT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$382.30
US$391.85
+2.5%
18.3%US$515.00US$250.00n/a21
Dec ’25US$397.00
US$379.04
-4.5%
18.6%US$500.00US$250.00n/a21
Nov ’25US$397.00
US$364.67
-8.1%
19.8%US$500.00US$250.00n/a21
Oct ’25US$373.00
US$352.95
-5.4%
18.4%US$464.00US$249.00n/a22
Sep ’25US$343.00
US$347.52
+1.3%
17.6%US$464.00US$249.00n/a23
Aug ’25US$353.00
US$347.49
-1.6%
17.4%US$464.00US$245.00n/a24
Jul ’25US$328.42
US$347.49
+5.8%
16.7%US$464.00US$245.00n/a26
Jun ’25US$362.15
US$345.96
-4.5%
16.7%US$464.00US$245.00n/a26
May ’25US$378.39
US$336.35
-11.1%
18.0%US$441.00US$175.00n/a27
Apr ’25US$259.00
US$320.64
+23.8%
17.6%US$441.00US$175.00n/a27
Mar ’25US$259.00
US$314.03
+21.2%
17.0%US$441.00US$175.00n/a26
Feb ’25US$259.00
US$279.23
+7.8%
17.9%US$432.00US$175.00n/a26
Jan ’25US$259.00
US$268.88
+3.8%
15.5%US$365.00US$175.00n/a25
Dec ’24US$237.20
US$265.84
+12.1%
15.7%US$365.00US$175.00US$397.0025
Nov ’24US$245.71
US$273.57
+11.3%
16.2%US$365.00US$175.00US$397.0024
Oct ’24US$246.40
US$284.90
+15.6%
15.2%US$364.00US$175.00US$373.0024
Sep ’24US$246.40
US$283.96
+15.2%
15.8%US$364.00US$175.00US$343.0025
Aug ’24US$246.40
US$259.72
+5.4%
16.3%US$351.00US$175.00US$353.0025
Jul ’24US$223.00
US$247.56
+11.0%
15.9%US$351.00US$175.00US$328.4225
Jun ’24US$223.00
US$242.69
+8.8%
15.9%US$345.00US$175.00US$362.1526
May ’24US$223.00
US$244.95
+9.8%
16.3%US$345.00US$175.00US$378.3925
Apr ’24US$223.00
US$251.96
+13.0%
16.0%US$337.00US$175.00US$259.0026
Mar ’24US$256.10
US$253.27
-1.1%
15.1%US$337.00US$175.00US$259.0026
Feb ’24US$256.10
US$254.88
-0.5%
14.1%US$337.00US$190.00US$259.0025
Jan ’24US$219.35
US$234.12
+6.7%
13.0%US$285.00US$175.00US$259.0026
Dec ’23US$219.35
US$230.62
+5.1%
13.6%US$285.00US$174.00US$237.2026

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 20:35
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Caterpillar Inc. is covered by 68 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John EadeArgus Research Company
William GraceAvondale Partners
Mircea DobreBaird