PACCAR Valuation

Is PCAR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PCAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PCAR ($97.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($123.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PCAR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PCAR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

PCAR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA9.9x
PEG Ratio-2.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PCAR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PCAR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.6x
CMI Cummins
20x10.5%US$40.0b
WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
32.3x17.7%US$29.8b
CAT Caterpillar
15x-2.1%US$170.1b
ALSN Allison Transmission Holdings
11x4.4%US$7.4b
PCAR PACCAR
10.1x-3.9%US$57.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PCAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the peer average (19.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PCAR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.4%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.4%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PCAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (21.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PCAR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PCAR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.1x
Fair PE Ratio18.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PCAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PCAR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$97.10
US$120.01
+23.6%
11.7%US$147.00US$88.00n/a19
Jul ’25US$101.84
US$120.51
+18.3%
11.0%US$147.00US$88.00n/a20
Jun ’25US$107.50
US$119.51
+11.2%
12.2%US$147.00US$88.00n/a20
May ’25US$106.34
US$115.39
+8.5%
14.5%US$147.00US$88.00n/a21
Apr ’25US$123.10
US$109.34
-11.2%
12.7%US$136.00US$84.00n/a21
Mar ’25US$113.19
US$103.22
-8.8%
9.9%US$125.00US$84.00n/a19
Feb ’25US$102.02
US$102.43
+0.4%
10.5%US$125.00US$84.00n/a19
Jan ’25US$97.65
US$93.33
-4.4%
12.2%US$116.00US$78.00n/a18
Dec ’24US$93.18
US$92.50
-0.7%
11.2%US$115.00US$78.00n/a18
Nov ’24US$83.15
US$92.50
+11.2%
11.2%US$115.00US$78.00n/a18
Oct ’24US$85.02
US$88.67
+4.3%
10.3%US$115.00US$74.00n/a18
Sep ’24US$83.52
US$89.16
+6.8%
10.8%US$115.00US$74.00n/a20
Aug ’24US$86.43
US$87.81
+1.6%
11.4%US$115.00US$74.00n/a20
Jul ’24US$83.65
US$80.12
-4.2%
5.2%US$90.00US$73.00US$101.8419
Jun ’24US$70.02
US$80.70
+15.3%
8.0%US$103.00US$73.00US$107.5021
May ’24US$74.79
US$80.08
+7.1%
9.1%US$103.00US$71.00US$106.3419
Apr ’24US$73.20
US$74.91
+2.3%
10.9%US$98.00US$61.00US$123.1019
Mar ’24US$73.05
US$74.74
+2.3%
11.2%US$98.00US$61.00US$113.1918
Feb ’24US$74.24
US$72.93
-1.8%
11.1%US$97.33US$60.67US$102.0218
Jan ’24US$65.98
US$68.51
+3.8%
10.5%US$90.67US$60.00US$97.6517
Dec ’23US$70.63
US$65.61
-7.1%
5.4%US$71.33US$60.00US$93.1817
Nov ’23US$64.63
US$65.30
+1.0%
5.6%US$71.33US$60.00US$83.1518
Oct ’23US$55.79
US$62.96
+12.9%
7.8%US$70.67US$54.00US$85.0218
Sep ’23US$58.31
US$62.93
+7.9%
7.8%US$70.67US$54.00US$83.5218
Aug ’23US$60.55
US$62.67
+3.5%
7.6%US$70.67US$54.00US$86.4318
Jul ’23US$55.26
US$64.63
+17.0%
8.1%US$75.33US$56.67US$83.6518

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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