PACCAR Inc

NasdaqGS:PCAR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$56.5b

PACCAR Valuation

Is PCAR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PCAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PCAR ($107.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($130.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PCAR is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PCAR?

Key metric: As PCAR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PCAR. This is calculated by dividing PCAR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PCAR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12x
EarningsUS$4.71b
Market CapUS$56.51b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PCAR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PCAR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.8x
CMI Cummins
22.9x7.4%US$48.1b
WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
31.4x15.9%US$33.3b
CAT Caterpillar
16.3x4.1%US$175.7b
ALSN Allison Transmission Holdings
12.8x4.7%US$9.3b
PCAR PACCAR
12x-0.1%US$56.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PCAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (20.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PCAR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AIRJ AirJoule Technologies
2.3xn/aUS$541.12m
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group
2.5x-46.6%US$73.11m
FATH Fathom Digital Manufacturing
2.6xn/aUS$35.24m
ZEVY Lightning eMotors
n/an/aUS$659.00
No more companies available in this PE range
PCAR 12.0xIndustry Avg. 22.7xNo. of Companies9PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PCAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (22.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PCAR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PCAR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12x
Fair PE Ratio21.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PCAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PCAR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$107.51
US$114.62
+6.6%
10.1%US$129.00US$92.59n/a18
Dec ’25US$117.00
US$113.99
-2.6%
10.4%US$129.00US$89.21n/a18
Nov ’25US$103.35
US$110.33
+6.8%
10.3%US$126.00US$88.00n/a18
Oct ’25US$98.05
US$108.98
+11.1%
11.5%US$139.00US$88.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$96.18
US$110.01
+14.4%
11.8%US$139.00US$88.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$96.30
US$112.54
+16.9%
10.0%US$139.00US$88.00n/a19
Jul ’25US$101.84
US$120.51
+18.3%
11.0%US$147.00US$88.00n/a20
Jun ’25US$107.50
US$119.51
+11.2%
12.2%US$147.00US$88.00n/a20
May ’25US$106.34
US$115.39
+8.5%
14.5%US$147.00US$88.00n/a21
Apr ’25US$123.10
US$109.34
-11.2%
12.7%US$136.00US$84.00n/a21
Mar ’25US$113.19
US$103.22
-8.8%
9.9%US$125.00US$84.00n/a19
Feb ’25US$102.02
US$102.43
+0.4%
10.5%US$125.00US$84.00n/a19
Jan ’25US$97.65
US$93.33
-4.4%
12.2%US$116.00US$78.00n/a18
Dec ’24US$93.18
US$92.50
-0.7%
11.2%US$115.00US$78.00US$117.0018
Nov ’24US$83.15
US$92.50
+11.2%
11.2%US$115.00US$78.00US$103.3518
Oct ’24US$85.02
US$88.67
+4.3%
10.3%US$115.00US$74.00US$98.0518
Sep ’24US$83.52
US$89.16
+6.8%
10.8%US$115.00US$74.00US$96.1820
Aug ’24US$86.43
US$87.81
+1.6%
11.4%US$115.00US$74.00US$96.3020
Jul ’24US$83.65
US$80.12
-4.2%
5.2%US$90.00US$73.00US$101.8419
Jun ’24US$70.02
US$80.70
+15.3%
8.0%US$103.00US$73.00US$107.5021
May ’24US$74.79
US$80.08
+7.1%
9.1%US$103.00US$71.00US$106.3419
Apr ’24US$73.20
US$74.91
+2.3%
10.9%US$98.00US$61.00US$123.1019
Mar ’24US$73.05
US$74.74
+2.3%
11.2%US$98.00US$61.00US$113.1918
Feb ’24US$74.24
US$72.93
-1.8%
11.1%US$97.33US$60.67US$102.0218
Jan ’24US$65.98
US$68.51
+3.8%
10.5%US$90.67US$60.00US$97.6517
Dec ’23US$70.63
US$65.61
-7.1%
5.4%US$71.33US$60.00US$93.1817

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 23:01
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

PACCAR Inc is covered by 52 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John EadeArgus Research Company
Kristine KubackiAvondale Partners
David LeikerBaird