Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:ALSN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.5b

Allison Transmission Holdings Valuation

Is ALSN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALSN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALSN ($72.44) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($138.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALSN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALSN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ALSN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7.6x
PEG Ratio2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALSN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALSN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.8x
OSK Oshkosh
10x1.6%US$7.0b
FSS Federal Signal
28.2x8.3%US$5.2b
TEX Terex
6.9x-2.4%US$3.7b
ATMU Atmus Filtration Technologies
14.1x10.9%US$2.4b
ALSN Allison Transmission Holdings
9.4x4.5%US$6.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALSN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the peer average (14.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALSN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALSN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (22.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALSN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALSN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.4x
Fair PE Ratio18.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALSN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALSN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$72.44
US$80.44
+11.0%
21.3%US$117.00US$56.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$75.81
US$80.44
+6.1%
21.3%US$117.00US$56.00n/a9
May ’25US$73.77
US$80.44
+9.0%
21.3%US$117.00US$56.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$80.83
US$75.33
-6.8%
24.0%US$117.00US$55.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$75.40
US$72.78
-3.5%
23.9%US$117.00US$55.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$61.45
US$67.00
+9.0%
28.3%US$116.00US$48.00n/a9
Jan ’25US$58.15
US$66.50
+14.4%
23.1%US$101.00US$48.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$54.52
US$66.50
+22.0%
23.1%US$101.00US$48.00n/a8
Nov ’24US$51.52
US$66.50
+29.1%
23.1%US$101.00US$48.00n/a8
Oct ’24US$59.06
US$64.88
+9.8%
24.8%US$100.00US$44.00n/a8
Sep ’24US$60.97
US$63.11
+3.5%
23.8%US$100.00US$44.00n/a9
Aug ’24US$59.68
US$61.11
+2.4%
17.1%US$82.00US$44.00n/a9
Jul ’24US$56.46
US$54.67
-3.2%
21.5%US$82.00US$42.00n/a9
Jun ’24US$48.36
US$51.89
+7.3%
22.0%US$82.00US$42.00US$75.819
May ’24US$48.42
US$51.78
+6.9%
21.5%US$81.00US$42.00US$73.779
Apr ’24US$45.24
US$50.67
+12.0%
25.1%US$82.00US$37.00US$80.839
Mar ’24US$48.01
US$50.67
+5.5%
25.1%US$82.00US$37.00US$75.409
Feb ’24US$45.53
US$46.78
+2.7%
29.4%US$82.00US$33.00US$61.459
Jan ’24US$41.60
US$45.44
+9.2%
23.3%US$70.00US$33.00US$58.159
Dec ’23US$44.84
US$45.11
+0.6%
24.2%US$70.00US$33.00US$54.529
Nov ’23US$42.65
US$44.56
+4.5%
24.7%US$70.00US$33.00US$51.529
Oct ’23US$33.76
US$43.56
+29.0%
25.2%US$70.00US$31.00US$59.069
Sep ’23US$36.22
US$43.56
+20.3%
25.2%US$70.00US$31.00US$60.979
Aug ’23US$41.40
US$43.11
+4.1%
25.5%US$70.00US$30.00US$59.689
Jul ’23US$38.39
US$44.00
+14.6%
24.1%US$70.00US$32.00US$56.469
Jun ’23US$40.39
US$44.00
+8.9%
24.1%US$70.00US$32.00US$48.369

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


Discover undervalued companies

Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd (ACN 600 056 611), is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Authorised Representative Number: 467183) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 337927). Any advice contained in this website is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us.