More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Rakon Limited's (NZSE:RAK) Shares After Tumbling 30%

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Rakon Limited (NZSE:RAK) share price has dived 30% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 20% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Rakon's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Electronic industry in New Zealand, seeing as it matches the P/S ratio of the wider industry. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

See our latest analysis for Rakon

What Does Rakon's Recent Performance Look Like?

Rakon could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Rakon will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

How Is Rakon's Revenue Growth Trending?

Rakon's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 29%. At least revenue has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 15% per annum during the coming three years according to the lone analyst following the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 31% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

In light of this, it's curious that Rakon's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Final Word

Rakon's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

When you consider that Rakon's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Rakon (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.