Analysts Have Been Trimming Their KMD Brands Limited (NZSE:KMD) Price Target After Its Latest Report

It's been a pretty great week for KMD Brands Limited (NZSE:KMD) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to NZ$0.27 in the week since its latest annual results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at NZ$989m, while statutory losses ballooned to NZ$0.13 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on KMD Brands after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from KMD Brands' five analysts is for revenues of NZ$1.03b in 2026. This would reflect a reasonable 4.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to explode, reaching NZ$0.0048 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of NZ$1.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.0063 in 2026. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for KMD Brands

The consensus price target fell 7.6% to NZ$0.33per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values KMD Brands at NZ$0.45 per share, while the most bearish prices it at NZ$0.28. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 4.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 3.7% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 6.7% annually. So although KMD Brands is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting KMD Brands to become unprofitable next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of KMD Brands' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on KMD Brands. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple KMD Brands analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for KMD Brands that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.