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SML

Synlait Milk NZSE:SML Stock Report

Last Price

NZ$3.24

Market Cap

NZ$708.2m

7D

-4.1%

1Y

-7.2%

Updated

11 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
SML fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth3/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends0/6

SML Stock Overview

Synlait Milk Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells dairy products in China, rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and internationally.

Synlait Milk Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Synlait Milk
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceNZ$3.24
52 Week HighNZ$3.96
52 Week LowNZ$3.02
Beta0.48
1 Month Change-3.86%
3 Month Change4.18%
1 Year Change-7.16%
3 Year Change-65.35%
5 Year Change-31.93%
Change since IPO18.25%

Recent News & Updates

Apr 05
Growth Investors: Industry Analysts Just Upgraded Their Synlait Milk Limited (NZSE:SML) Revenue Forecasts By 11%

Growth Investors: Industry Analysts Just Upgraded Their Synlait Milk Limited (NZSE:SML) Revenue Forecasts By 11%

Synlait Milk Limited ( NZSE:SML ) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial...

Shareholder Returns

SMLNZ FoodNZ Market
7D-4.1%-2.3%0.2%
1Y-7.2%-16.3%-11.1%

Return vs Industry: SML exceeded the NZ Food industry which returned -16.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SML exceeded the NZ Market which returned -10.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SML's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SML volatility
SML Average Weekly Movement4.1%
Food Industry Average Movement4.1%
Market Average Movement4.3%
10% most volatile stocks in NZ Market8.0%
10% least volatile stocks in NZ Market3.0%

Stable Share Price: SML is not significantly more volatile than the rest of NZ stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SML's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
2005n/aGrant Watsonhttps://www.synlait.com

Synlait Milk Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells dairy products in China, rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. The company is also involved in the processing, packaging, and marketing of dairy products, including cheese, butter, and milk powder. It offers liquid milk; milk powder related products; nutritional products, such as infant and adult nutritional powders; ingredients comprising skim milk powders and anhydrous milk fat; and specialized nutritional ingredients, such as lactoferrin.

Synlait Milk Fundamentals Summary

How do Synlait Milk's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SML fundamental statistics
Market CapNZ$708.20m
Earnings (TTM)-NZ$6.92m
Revenue (TTM)NZ$1.49b

0.5x

P/S Ratio

-102.4x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SML income statement (TTM)
RevenueNZ$1.49b
Cost of RevenueNZ$1.42b
Gross ProfitNZ$76.74m
Other ExpensesNZ$83.66m
Earnings-NZ$6.92m

Last Reported Earnings

Jan 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Sep 26, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)-0.032
Gross Margin5.14%
Net Profit Margin-0.46%
Debt/Equity Ratio57.5%

How did SML perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is SML undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SML?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SML key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA32.8x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SML's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

SML PS Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PS ratio for SML vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.4x
SAN Sanford
0.8x5.8%NZ$400.2m
LIC Livestock Improvement
0.7xn/aNZ$192.2m
NZK New Zealand King Salmon Investments
0.8x0.9%NZ$138.1m
ATM a2 Milk
3.4x10.8%NZ$4.0b
SML Synlait Milk
0.5x4.8%NZ$708.2m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SML is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SML's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Food Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SML is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the NZ Food industry average (0.7x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SML's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SML PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.5x
Fair PS Ratio0.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SML is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SML when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SML (NZ$3.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$4.93)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SML is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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Future Growth

How is Synlait Milk forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


38.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SML is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.1%).

Earnings vs Market: SML is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: SML is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SML's revenue (4.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the NZ market (5.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SML's revenue (4.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SML's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (8.6%).


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Past Performance

How has Synlait Milk performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-17.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SML is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: SML is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SML is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 17.6% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare SML's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: SML is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Food industry (4.8%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: SML has a negative Return on Equity (-0.93%), as it is currently unprofitable.


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Financial Health

How is Synlait Milk's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SML's short term assets (NZ$509.9M) do not cover its short term liabilities (NZ$518.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: SML's short term assets (NZ$509.9M) exceed its long term liabilities (NZ$421.6M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SML's net debt to equity ratio (52.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: SML's debt to equity ratio has increased from 41% to 57.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: SML's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (47.1%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if SML's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Synlait Milk current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


1.99%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate SML's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate SML's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if SML's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if SML's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as SML has not reported any payouts.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Grant Watson

0.58

Tenure

Mr. Grant Watson serves as Chief Executive Officer at Synlait Milk Limited since January 24, 2022. He had been Chief Executive Officer of dairy company, Miraka. Prior to Miraka, he worked at Fonterra where...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SML's management team is considered experienced (4.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: SML's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Synlait Milk Limited's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Synlait Milk Limited
  • Ticker: SML
  • Exchange: NZSE
  • Founded: 2005
  • Industry: Packaged Foods and Meats
  • Sector: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
  • Implied Market Cap: NZ$708.205m
  • Shares outstanding: 218.58m
  • Website: https://www.synlait.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Synlait Milk Limited
  • 1028 Heslerton Road
  • RD13
  • Rakaia
  • 7783
  • New Zealand

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings2022/01/31
Annual Earnings2021/07/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.