Synlait Milk Valuation
Is SML undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of SML when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: SML (NZ$1.29) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$2.03)
Significantly Below Fair Value: SML is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SML?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is SML's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | NZ$236.07m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 13x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does SML's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 1x | ||
SAN Sanford | 0.7x | 4.9% | NZ$360.0m |
LIC Livestock Improvement | 0.5x | n/a | NZ$135.2m |
NZK New Zealand King Salmon Investments | 0.7x | 6.6% | NZ$121.8m |
ATM a2 Milk | 2x | 6.8% | NZ$3.1b |
SML Synlait Milk | 0.2x | 5.4% | NZ$236.1m |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SML is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (0.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does SML's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Food Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SML is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the Oceanic Food industry average (0.8x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is SML's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.2x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 0.3x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SML is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | NZ$1.08 | NZ$1.78 +64.4% | 26.5% | NZ$2.40 | NZ$1.25 | n/a | 4 |
| Dec ’24 | NZ$1.32 | NZ$1.78 +34.5% | 26.5% | NZ$2.40 | NZ$1.25 | n/a | 4 |
| Nov ’24 | NZ$1.39 | NZ$1.78 +27.7% | 26.5% | NZ$2.40 | NZ$1.25 | n/a | 4 |
| Oct ’24 | NZ$1.43 | NZ$1.80 +25.9% | 25.1% | NZ$2.40 | NZ$1.25 | n/a | 4 |
| Sep ’24 | NZ$1.29 | NZ$2.38 +84.7% | 40.1% | NZ$3.95 | NZ$1.53 | n/a | 4 |
| Aug ’24 | NZ$1.61 | NZ$2.38 +48.0% | 40.1% | NZ$3.95 | NZ$1.53 | n/a | 4 |
| Jul ’24 | NZ$1.66 | NZ$2.38 +43.5% | 40.1% | NZ$3.95 | NZ$1.53 | n/a | 4 |
| Jun ’24 | NZ$1.55 | NZ$2.38 +53.7% | 40.1% | NZ$3.95 | NZ$1.53 | n/a | 4 |
| May ’24 | NZ$1.57 | NZ$2.65 +68.5% | 33.0% | NZ$3.95 | NZ$1.53 | n/a | 4 |
| Apr ’24 | NZ$2.13 | NZ$3.15 +47.9% | 25.0% | NZ$4.30 | NZ$2.10 | n/a | 4 |
| Mar ’24 | NZ$3.40 | NZ$4.02 +18.1% | 18.8% | NZ$5.30 | NZ$3.41 | n/a | 4 |
| Feb ’24 | NZ$3.45 | NZ$4.02 +16.4% | 18.8% | NZ$5.30 | NZ$3.41 | n/a | 4 |
| Jan ’24 | NZ$3.53 | NZ$4.02 +13.7% | 18.8% | NZ$5.30 | NZ$3.41 | n/a | 4 |
| Dec ’23 | NZ$3.16 | NZ$3.98 +25.8% | 19.9% | NZ$5.30 | NZ$3.25 | NZ$1.32 | 4 |
| Nov ’23 | NZ$3.13 | NZ$3.98 +27.0% | 19.8% | NZ$5.30 | NZ$3.25 | NZ$1.39 | 4 |
| Oct ’23 | NZ$3.55 | NZ$3.98 +12.0% | 19.8% | NZ$5.30 | NZ$3.25 | NZ$1.43 | 4 |
| Sep ’23 | NZ$3.42 | NZ$3.88 +13.3% | 22.2% | NZ$5.35 | NZ$3.25 | NZ$1.29 | 4 |
| Aug ’23 | NZ$3.20 | NZ$3.88 +21.1% | 22.2% | NZ$5.35 | NZ$3.25 | NZ$1.61 | 4 |
| Jul ’23 | NZ$3.10 | NZ$3.88 +25.0% | 22.2% | NZ$5.35 | NZ$3.25 | NZ$1.66 | 4 |
| Jun ’23 | NZ$3.48 | NZ$3.88 +11.4% | 22.2% | NZ$5.35 | NZ$3.25 | NZ$1.55 | 4 |
| May ’23 | NZ$3.53 | NZ$3.93 +11.2% | 21.1% | NZ$5.35 | NZ$3.30 | NZ$1.57 | 4 |
| Apr ’23 | NZ$3.35 | NZ$3.98 +18.7% | 20.1% | NZ$5.35 | NZ$3.40 | NZ$2.13 | 4 |
| Mar ’23 | NZ$3.30 | NZ$3.86 +17.0% | 15.6% | NZ$4.90 | NZ$3.40 | NZ$3.40 | 4 |
| Feb ’23 | NZ$3.34 | NZ$3.86 +15.6% | 15.6% | NZ$4.90 | NZ$3.40 | NZ$3.45 | 4 |
| Jan ’23 | NZ$3.46 | NZ$3.86 +11.6% | 15.6% | NZ$4.90 | NZ$3.40 | NZ$3.53 | 4 |
| Dec ’22 | NZ$3.38 | NZ$3.86 +14.3% | 15.6% | NZ$4.90 | NZ$3.40 | NZ$3.16 | 4 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.