The a2 Milk Company Limited

NZSE:ATM Stock Report

Market Cap: NZ$4.6b

a2 Milk Valuation

Is ATM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ATM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ATM (NZ$6.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$21.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ATM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATM?

Key metric: As ATM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ATM. This is calculated by dividing ATM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ATM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio27.4x
EarningsNZ$167.58m
Market CapNZ$4.60b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ATM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ATM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.7x
FCG Fonterra Co-operative Group
5.8xn/aNZ$6.8b
SAN Sanford
20.2x16.9%NZ$397.4m
NZK New Zealand King Salmon Investments
5.1x-3.5%NZ$121.1m
SCL Scales
19.7x18.7%NZ$580.0m
ATM a2 Milk
27.4x12.6%NZ$4.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ATM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the peer average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ATM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ATM 27.4xIndustry Avg. 15.8xNo. of Companies3PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ATM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the Global Food industry average (15.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ATM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ATM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio27.4x
Fair PE Ratio21.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ATM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ATM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentNZ$6.35
NZ$6.92
+9.0%
7.9%NZ$8.00NZ$6.40n/a9
Dec ’25NZ$6.36
NZ$6.92
+8.9%
7.9%NZ$8.00NZ$6.40n/a9
Nov ’25NZ$6.25
NZ$6.89
+10.3%
8.5%NZ$8.00NZ$6.30n/a8
Oct ’25NZ$6.73
NZ$6.89
+2.3%
8.6%NZ$8.00NZ$6.30n/a8
Sep ’25NZ$6.08
NZ$6.95
+14.2%
8.7%NZ$8.00NZ$6.30n/a7
Aug ’25NZ$7.82
NZ$7.10
-9.3%
11.6%NZ$8.25NZ$6.00n/a7
Jul ’25NZ$7.25
NZ$6.66
-8.1%
9.3%NZ$8.00NZ$6.00n/a7
Jun ’25NZ$7.69
NZ$6.64
-13.7%
9.5%NZ$8.00NZ$6.00n/a7
May ’25NZ$6.57
NZ$6.47
-1.5%
12.4%NZ$8.00NZ$5.25n/a7
Apr ’25NZ$6.78
NZ$6.47
-4.5%
12.4%NZ$8.00NZ$5.25n/a7
Mar ’25NZ$6.12
NZ$6.47
+5.8%
12.4%NZ$8.00NZ$5.25n/a7
Feb ’25NZ$5.27
NZ$6.03
+14.4%
18.8%NZ$8.00NZ$4.60n/a7
Jan ’25NZ$4.60
NZ$5.99
+30.3%
19.9%NZ$8.00NZ$4.25n/a7
Dec ’24NZ$4.14
NZ$5.99
+44.8%
19.9%NZ$8.00NZ$4.25NZ$6.367
Nov ’24NZ$4.20
NZ$6.04
+43.9%
18.6%NZ$8.00NZ$4.60NZ$6.257
Oct ’24NZ$4.56
NZ$6.15
+34.8%
17.2%NZ$8.00NZ$4.60NZ$6.737
Sep ’24NZ$4.89
NZ$6.15
+25.7%
17.2%NZ$8.00NZ$4.60NZ$6.087
Aug ’24NZ$5.51
NZ$6.89
+25.0%
17.6%NZ$8.90NZ$5.25NZ$7.827
Jul ’24NZ$5.35
NZ$6.89
+28.7%
17.6%NZ$8.90NZ$5.25NZ$7.257
Jun ’24NZ$5.74
NZ$6.58
+14.6%
14.1%NZ$8.00NZ$5.40NZ$7.696
May ’24NZ$5.85
NZ$6.53
+11.6%
15.1%NZ$8.00NZ$5.35NZ$6.576
Apr ’24NZ$6.24
NZ$6.95
+11.4%
16.9%NZ$8.90NZ$5.35NZ$6.787
Mar ’24NZ$7.16
NZ$6.90
-3.6%
18.1%NZ$8.90NZ$5.00NZ$6.127
Feb ’24NZ$7.52
NZ$6.63
-11.8%
21.6%NZ$9.45NZ$5.00NZ$5.277
Jan ’24NZ$7.38
NZ$6.59
-10.7%
22.4%NZ$9.45NZ$4.75NZ$4.607
Dec ’23NZ$6.79
NZ$6.63
-2.4%
22.0%NZ$9.45NZ$4.75NZ$4.147

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 05:47
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The a2 Milk Company Limited is covered by 21 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Thomas KierathBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Jonathan SnapeBell Potter