The a2 Milk Company Limited

NZSE:ATM Stock Report

Market Cap: NZ$6.5b

a2 Milk Valuation

Is ATM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of ATM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: ATM (NZ$9.02) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (NZ$17.34)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: ATM is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATM?

Key metric: As ATM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ATM. This is calculated by dividing ATM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ATM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.6x
EarningsNZ$207.27m
Market CapNZ$6.54b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ATM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ATM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.4x
FCG Fonterra Co-operative Group
10.6xn/aNZ$11.0b
SAN Sanford
10.9x2.82%NZ$695.7m
SCL Scales
8.6x3.39%NZ$868.7m
CWK Cranswick
19.4x5.71%UK£2.9b
ATM a2 Milk
31.6x19.05%NZ$6.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ATM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.6x) compared to the peer average (12.4x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ATM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ATM 31.6xIndustry Avg. 13.4xNo. of Companies6PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ATM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.6x) compared to the Oceanic Food industry average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ATM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ATM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.6x
Fair PE Ratio19.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ATM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ATM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentNZ$9.02
NZ$10.53
+16.78%
9.57%NZ$11.90NZ$9.20n/a6
Apr ’27NZ$11.15
NZ$10.93
-1.94%
10.87%NZ$12.60NZ$9.40n/a6
Mar ’27NZ$11.55
NZ$10.93
-5.34%
10.87%NZ$12.60NZ$9.40n/a6
Feb ’27NZ$9.87
NZ$10.38
+5.12%
12.73%NZ$12.40NZ$8.60n/a6
Jan ’27NZ$10.78
NZ$10.16
-5.77%
15.39%NZ$12.40NZ$8.00n/a6
Dec ’26NZ$10.65
NZ$9.93
-6.73%
15.60%NZ$12.40NZ$8.00n/a7
Nov ’26NZ$10.80
NZ$9.37
-13.25%
12.97%NZ$11.30NZ$7.85n/a7
Oct ’26NZ$10.38
NZ$8.94
-13.89%
10.26%NZ$10.55NZ$7.80n/a8
Sep ’26NZ$10.68
NZ$8.86
-17.01%
9.01%NZ$10.00NZ$7.80n/a8
Aug ’26NZ$8.67
NZ$8.37
-3.48%
10.90%NZ$9.95NZ$7.30n/a8
Jul ’26NZ$8.54
NZ$8.34
-2.37%
11.65%NZ$9.95NZ$7.30n/a7
Jun ’26NZ$8.88
NZ$8.31
-6.38%
10.84%NZ$9.95NZ$7.30n/a8
May ’26NZ$9.05
NZ$8.10
-10.51%
8.20%NZ$9.70NZ$7.30n/a9
Apr ’26NZ$8.69
NZ$8.02
-7.70%
9.00%NZ$9.70NZ$7.20NZ$11.159
Mar ’26NZ$8.84
NZ$7.65
-13.48%
7.24%NZ$8.68NZ$6.50NZ$11.5510
Feb ’26NZ$6.44
NZ$6.95
+7.91%
8.17%NZ$8.00NZ$6.39NZ$9.8710
Jan ’26NZ$6.30
NZ$6.92
+9.87%
7.89%NZ$8.00NZ$6.39NZ$10.789
Dec ’25NZ$6.36
NZ$6.92
+8.83%
7.89%NZ$8.00NZ$6.39NZ$10.659
Nov ’25NZ$6.25
NZ$6.89
+10.27%
8.50%NZ$8.00NZ$6.30NZ$10.808
Oct ’25NZ$6.73
NZ$6.89
+2.32%
8.55%NZ$8.00NZ$6.30NZ$10.388
Sep ’25NZ$6.08
NZ$6.95
+14.24%
8.72%NZ$8.00NZ$6.30NZ$10.687
Aug ’25NZ$7.82
NZ$7.10
-9.27%
11.59%NZ$8.25NZ$6.00NZ$8.677
Jul ’25NZ$7.25
NZ$6.66
-8.14%
9.31%NZ$8.00NZ$6.00NZ$8.547
Jun ’25NZ$7.69
NZ$6.64
-13.70%
9.54%NZ$8.00NZ$6.00NZ$8.887
May ’25NZ$6.57
NZ$6.47
-1.49%
12.37%NZ$8.00NZ$5.25NZ$9.057
Apr ’25NZ$6.78
NZ$6.47
-4.54%
12.37%NZ$8.00NZ$5.25NZ$8.697
NZ$10.53
Fair Value
14.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/20 00:40
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/20 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The a2 Milk Company Limited is covered by 21 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Thomas KierathBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Jonathan SnapeBell Potter
Josephine FordeBofA Global Research