a2 Milk Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
a2 Milk has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 9.7%, while the Food industry saw earnings growing at 9.7% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 8.4% per year. a2 Milk's return on equity is 14.6%, and it has net margins of 10.1%.
Key information
9.73%
Earnings growth rate
10.45%
EPS growth rate
| Food Industry Growth | -2.91% |
| Revenue growth rate | 8.43% |
| Return on equity | 14.56% |
| Net Margin | 10.08% |
| Next Earnings Update | 15 Aug 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 12
ATM: Settlement Agreement And FY26 Outlook Will Support Further Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their NZ$ fair value estimate for a2 Milk slightly, with the updated NZ$10.23 price target reflecting modest adjustments to assumed revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples. What's in the News The a2 Milk Company updated its earnings guidance for fiscal 2026, now expecting revenue growth in the low to mid double digit range versus fiscal 2025, where double digit refers to roughly 10% to 20% growth.Narrative Update • May 28
ATM: Settlement Resolution And FY26 Guidance Will Support Further Upside Potential
Analysts have maintained their NZ$10.53 price target for a2 Milk, citing only minor adjustments to underlying assumptions such as revenue growth, profit margins and the future P/E multiple, rather than any change in the core outlook. What's in the News a2 Milk has updated its earnings guidance for fiscal 2026, now expecting revenue growth in the low to mid double digit range of about 10% to 20% compared with fiscal 2025.Narrative Update • May 07
ATM: Dividend Policy And FY26 Guidance Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have kept their NZ$10.53 price target for a2 Milk steady, citing only slight adjustments in discount rate, long term revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions as the rationale for leaving the valuation unchanged. What's in the News a2 Milk updated FY26 earnings guidance, now expecting revenue growth in the low to mid double-digit range versus FY25, with double-digit defined as 10% to 20%, compared with previous guidance of mid double-digit growth (Corporate Guidance, New/Confirmed).Narrative Update • Apr 21
ATM: Dividend And Mid Double-Digit FY26 Growth Outlook Will Support Upside
Analysts have trimmed their 12 month price target on a2 Milk from NZ$10.93 to NZ$10.53, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue, profit margins and future P/E multiples. What's in the News a2 Milk updated FY26 guidance to revenue growth in the low to mid double-digit range versus FY25, clarifying that double digit refers to 10% to 20% (Corporate guidance).Narrative Update • Apr 06
ATM: Dividend Payout And FY26 Guidance Will Support Steady Returns
Analysts have maintained their NZ$10.93 price target for a2 Milk, highlighting only minor adjustments to revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions, rather than any major change in the outlook. What's in the News a2 Milk raised its earnings guidance for FY26, with management indicating that revenue is trending ahead of prior expectations across all segments and products, and that NPAT is expected to be up on FY25 reported on a continuing operations basis (Corporate Guidance: Raised).Narrative Update • Mar 22
ATM: Dividend And FY26 Outlook Will Support Steady Future Returns
Analysts have kept their NZ$10.93 price target for a2 Milk unchanged, reflecting largely consistent assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E relative to prior estimates. What's in the News a2 Milk declared an interim dividend of NZ$0.115 per share, described as unimputed and fully franked, representing around 74% of NPAT from continuing operations for the six months ended December 31, 2025 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 08
ATM: Dividend Policy And FY26 Guidance Will Support Steady Outlook
Analysts have kept their NZ$10.93 price target for a2 Milk unchanged. This reflects stable assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, with no new Street research driving a revision at this time.Narrative Update • Feb 22
ATM: Dividend Policy And 2026 Guidance Will Support Balanced Outlook
Analysts have modestly lifted their price target for a2 Milk to NZ$10.93 from NZ$10.38, citing updated assumptions that keep revenue growth expectations similar while slightly adjusting profit margin and future P/E inputs. What's in the News a2 Milk has declared an interim dividend of NZ$0.115 per share, described as unimputed and fully franked.Analysis Article • Feb 18
The a2 Milk Company Limited (NZSE:ATM) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Price Targets
Shareholders of The a2 Milk Company Limited ( NZSE:ATM ) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up...Narrative Update • Feb 07
ATM: China Registration Progress And 2026 Guidance Will Support Balanced Outlook
Analysts kept their fair value estimate for a2 Milk steady at A$10.38 while making only very small adjustments to the discount rate, profit margin and future P/E assumptions, reflecting largely unchanged views on the stock's risk profile and earnings power. What's in the News a2 Milk received approvals from New Zealand's Ministry for Primary Industries and the General Administration of China Customs to progress the transition of two China label infant milk formula registrations linked to the Pokeno facility into a2 Milk branded products.Narrative Update • Jan 22
ATM: China Approvals And 2027 Launch Plans Will Support Balanced Outlook
Narrative update Analysts have nudged their price target for a2 Milk higher from A$10.16 to A$10.38, reflecting small adjustments to fair value, long run revenue growth, profit margin assumptions and the forward P/E multiple. What's in the News a2 Milk received approvals from New Zealand's Ministry for Primary Industries and the General Administration of China Customs to progress the transition of two China label infant milk formula registrations linked to the Pokeno facility to a2 Milk branded products.Narrative Update • Jan 08
ATM: China Approvals And 2027 Launch Timing Will Guide Balanced Outlook
Analysts have kept their price target on a2 Milk unchanged at A$10.16, reflecting consistent assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News a2 Milk received approval from New Zealand's Ministry for Primary Industries and the General Administration of China Customs for the process to transition two China label infant milk formula registrations linked to the Pokeno facility to a2 Milk branded products.Narrative Update • Dec 25
ATM: China Regulatory Progress And New Distribution Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on a2 Milk to approximately $10.16 per share from about $9.93, reflecting slightly higher long term profit margin expectations and a marginally richer future P/E multiple. What's in the News a2 Milk received approvals from New Zealand's Ministry for Primary Industries and China's General Administration of Customs to progress regulatory steps needed to transition two China label infant formula registrations to a2-branded products, with final SAMR approval to be sought in December 2025 and a potential product launch targeted for late first half 2027 (Regulatory Authority – Compliance) The company confirmed earnings guidance for 2026, expecting low double digit percentage revenue growth versus FY25, reinforcing management confidence in medium term performance (Corporate Guidance – New/Confirmed) a2 Milk expanded its long term strategic cooperation with China State Farm Agribusiness Holding Shanghai to include English label infant milk formula products in the cross border eCommerce channel from early calendar 2026, broadening distribution for a2 Genesis and paving the way for other products such as a2 Platinum (Client Announcements) The enhanced partnership with China State Farm, a state owned enterprise with deep reach into mother and baby stores and major online platforms, is expected to strengthen a2 Milk's brand position and control over its English label distribution in China (Client Announcements) Valuation Changes Fair Value: Increased slightly from around NZ$9.93 to approximately NZ$10.16 per share.Analysis Article • Dec 15
The a2 Milk Company Limited's (NZSE:ATM) Price Is Out Of Tune With Earnings
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 36.3x The a2 Milk Company Limited ( NZSE:ATM ) may be sending very bearish...Narrative Update • Dec 11
ATM: Regulatory Approvals And Index Inclusion Will Shape Balanced Medium Term Outlook
Analysts have modestly increased their price target on a2 Milk to reflect slightly stronger expected revenue growth and marginally improved profit margins, while maintaining a broadly similar valuation multiple. What's in the News Received approvals from New Zealand's Ministry for Primary Industries and China Customs to progress regulatory transfer of two China label infant milk formula registrations tied to the Pokeno facility, with final SAMR approval to be sought in December 2025 and potential product launch targeted for late first half of 2027 (Regulatory Authority compliance filing).Narrative Update • Nov 27
ATM: Regulatory Progress And Index Changes Will Shape Medium-Term Performance Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target for a2 Milk from $9.37 to $9.93 per share. They cite improved revenue growth expectations, although the profit margin outlook is slightly lower.Analysis Article • Nov 13
Shareholders Will Probably Hold Off On Increasing The a2 Milk Company Limited's (NZSE:ATM) CEO Compensation For The Time Being
Key Insights a2 Milk to hold its Annual General Meeting on 20th of November Total pay for CEO David Bortolussi includes...Narrative Update • Nov 07
ATM: Rising Discount Rate and High P/E Will Pressure Future Returns
Analysts have raised their price target for a2 Milk from $9.05 to $9.37, citing slight improvements to expected revenue growth and overall fair value estimates. What's in the News The a2 Milk Company Limited (ASX:A2M) has been added to the S&P Global BMI Index (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Oct 29
Here's Why a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...Narrative Update • Oct 24
Supply Constraints And Costs Will Pressure Earnings But Profit Margins Are Set To Improve
Analysts have raised their price target for a2 Milk from $8.86 to $9.05, citing an improved outlook on revenue growth and profit margins. What's in the News The a2 Milk Company Limited (ASX:A2M) has been added to the S&P Global BMI Index.Analysis Article • Sep 17
We Think a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Aug 20
The The a2 Milk Company Limited (NZSE:ATM) Full-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
NZSE:ATM 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore a2 Milk's Fair Values from the Community and select yours It's been a...Narrative Update • Aug 19
Supply Constraints And Capital Costs Will Weigh On Earnings, But New Products May Improve Future Prospects
Despite a notable reduction in forecast revenue growth, a2 Milk’s valuation has risen on higher future P/E expectations, resulting in an upward revision of the consensus price target from NZ$8.37 to NZ$8.86. What's in the News The a2 Milk Company expects revenue growth in the high single-digit percent range for fiscal year 2026, compared to FY25 continuing operations.Analysis Article • Aug 04
a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Analysis Article • Jul 18
The a2 Milk Company Limited's (NZSE:ATM) P/E Is On The Mark
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 34.4x The a2 Milk Company Limited ( NZSE:ATM ) may be sending very bearish...Analysis Article • Jun 17
Here's Why We Think a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) Is Well Worth Watching
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Analysis Article • May 21
Does a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • Apr 23
Is The a2 Milk Company Limited (NZSE:ATM) Trading At A 38% Discount?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, a2 Milk fair value estimate is NZ$14.31 Current share price of...Analysis Article • Apr 10
a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) Might Be Having Difficulty Using Its Capital Effectively
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...
New Narrative • Mar 13
Supply Constraints And Capital Costs Will Weigh On Earnings, But New Products May Improve Future Prospects
The company's expansion and reliance on costly air freight impact margins and could pressure revenue if investment returns disappoint.Analysis Article • Mar 11
Should You Be Adding a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) To Your Watchlist Today?
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...Analysis Article • Feb 17
With The a2 Milk Company Limited (NZSE:ATM) It Looks Like You'll Get What You Pay For
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 32.7x The a2 Milk Company Limited ( NZSE:ATM ) may be sending very bearish...Analysis Article • Nov 15
Shareholders Will Probably Hold Off On Increasing The a2 Milk Company Limited's (NZSE:ATM) CEO Compensation For The Time Being
Key Insights a2 Milk will host its Annual General Meeting on 22nd of November CEO David Bortolussi's total compensation...Analysis Article • Nov 12
Some Confidence Is Lacking In The a2 Milk Company Limited (NZSE:ATM) As Shares Slide 26%
The a2 Milk Company Limited ( NZSE:ATM ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow...Analysis Article • Nov 07
Is a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) Using Too Much Debt?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Oct 20
Be Wary Of a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) And Its Returns On Capital
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Analysis Article • Sep 14
The a2 Milk Company Limited's (NZSE:ATM) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up
The a2 Milk Company Limited's ( NZSE:ATM ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.6x might make it look like a sell...Analysis Article • Aug 26
Why a2 Milk's (NZSE:ATM) Earnings Are Better Than They Seem
The market seemed underwhelmed by the solid earnings posted by The a2 Milk Company Limited ( NZSE:ATM ) recently. Along...Analysis Article • Aug 21
Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For The a2 Milk Company Limited (NZSE:ATM) After Its Full-Year Results
It's been a sad week for The a2 Milk Company Limited ( NZSE:ATM ), who've watched their investment drop 17% to NZ$6.20...Analysis Article • Jun 28
Does a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Jun 12
Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over The a2 Milk Company Limited's (NZSE:ATM) P/E Ratio
When close to half the companies in New Zealand have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 14x, you may consider...Analysis Article • Apr 16
a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. In a perfect...Analysis Article • Mar 09
Is a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) Using Too Much Debt?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Feb 07
The a2 Milk Company Limited's (NZSE:ATM) 28% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up
The The a2 Milk Company Limited ( NZSE:ATM ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent...Analysis Article • Dec 22
Some Confidence Is Lacking In The a2 Milk Company Limited's (NZSE:ATM) P/E
The a2 Milk Company Limited's ( NZSE:ATM ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.4x might make it look like a sell...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How a2 Milk makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 25 | 2,056 | 207 | 677 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 1,978 | 205 | 653 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 1,899 | 203 | 630 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 1,770 | 207 | 605 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 1,698 | 193 | 584 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 1,685 | 180 | 575 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 1,673 | 168 | 567 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 1,647 | 167 | 554 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 1,620 | 167 | 541 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 1,606 | 161 | 540 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 1,591 | 156 | 540 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 1,579 | 146 | 567 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 1,567 | 137 | 594 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 1,505 | 130 | 541 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 1,444 | 123 | 489 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 1,315 | 71 | 417 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 1,186 | 20 | 346 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 1,196 | 50 | 324 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 1,205 | 81 | 301 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 1,404 | 200 | 306 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 1,603 | 320 | 311 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 1,667 | 354 | 323 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 1,731 | 388 | 334 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 1,613 | 358 | 311 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 1,495 | 328 | 288 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 1,398 | 311 | 261 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 1,301 | 295 | 234 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 1,200 | 273 | 209 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 1,099 | 252 | 183 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 1,011 | 224 | 167 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 923 | 196 | 151 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 825 | 173 | 135 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 728 | 150 | 119 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 639 | 120 | 108 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 550 | 91 | 97 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 510 | 75 | 93 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 470 | 60 | 90 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 411 | 45 | 85 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 353 | 30 | 80 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 286 | 19 | 63 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 219 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 187 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 155 | -2 | 30 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: ATM has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: ATM's current net profit margins (10.1%) are lower than last year (11.3%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: ATM's earnings have grown by 9.7% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: ATM's earnings growth over the past year (7.7%) is below its 5-year average (9.7% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: ATM earnings growth over the past year (7.7%) did not outperform the Food industry 70.4%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: ATM's Return on Equity (14.6%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/15 23:58 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/15 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
The a2 Milk Company Limited is covered by 21 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Thomas Kierath | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| Jonathan Snape | Bell Potter |
| Josephine Forde | BofA Global Research |