a2 Milk's (NZSE:ATM) Returns On Capital Not Reflecting Well On The Business

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? In a perfect world, we'd like to see a company investing more capital into its business and ideally the returns earned from that capital are also increasing. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think a2 Milk (NZSE:ATM) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What is it?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for a2 Milk, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.12 = NZ$126m ÷ (NZ$1.4b - NZ$275m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2021).

So, a2 Milk has an ROCE of 12%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Food industry average of 8.4% it's much better.

View our latest analysis for a2 Milk

Above you can see how the current ROCE for a2 Milk compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

The Trend Of ROCE

In terms of a2 Milk's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 40% over the last five years. Given the business is employing more capital while revenue has slipped, this is a bit concerning. If this were to continue, you might be looking at a company that is trying to reinvest for growth but is actually losing market share since sales haven't increased.

On a related note, a2 Milk has decreased its current liabilities to 20% of total assets. That could partly explain why the ROCE has dropped. What's more, this can reduce some aspects of risk to the business because now the company's suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of its operations. Some would claim this reduces the business' efficiency at generating ROCE since it is now funding more of the operations with its own money.

Our Take On a2 Milk's ROCE

In summary, we're somewhat concerned by a2 Milk's diminishing returns on increasing amounts of capital. Since the stock has skyrocketed 137% over the last five years, it looks like investors have high expectations of the stock. Regardless, we don't feel too comfortable with the fundamentals so we'd be steering clear of this stock for now.

On a separate note, we've found 2 warning signs for a2 Milk you'll probably want to know about.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.