Does Recent Share Price Surge Signal Further Upside for Van Lanschot Kempen in 2025?

Thinking about what to do with Van Lanschot Kempen? You are not alone, especially as this stock has caught the eye of investors with a return of 4.4% over the past week and a strong 16.8% gain so far this year. If you look further back, the one-year return comes in at 32.5%, and over three years, a massive 261.9%. Clearly, something is driving this sustained momentum, which is making investors wonder whether now is the time to get on board or if all the growth has already been priced in.

Some of these recent price moves have lined up with broader market optimism toward European financial firms, which has helped to boost the sector as risk appetite returns. However, it is important to remember that while news headlines can add fuel to short-term moves, the real answer to whether Van Lanschot Kempen is a buy or hold lies in the valuation.

On that note, Van Lanschot Kempen currently earns a valuation score of just 1 out of 6. This suggests it only meets the “undervalued” standard in one of the six key checks. That could mean the stock’s market price already reflects much of its positive outlook, or perhaps that some value remains hidden beneath the surface.

In the next sections, we are going to break down how the valuation score is calculated and see which factors might matter most for you now. Before we wrap up, we will also look at a more holistic way of thinking about value that goes beyond the usual numbers.

Van Lanschot Kempen scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Van Lanschot Kempen Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model focuses on how effectively a company grows shareholders’ equity above its cost of capital. For Van Lanschot Kempen, this approach uses historical profitability to estimate a sustainable earnings profile and determine whether the stock genuinely generates meaningful value beyond its investment cost.

Key valuation metrics are as follows:

• Book Value: €30.12 per share
• Stable EPS: €3.22 per share
  (Source: Median Return on Equity from the past 5 years.)
• Cost of Equity: €2.52 per share
• Excess Return: €0.70 per share
• Average Return on Equity: 9.91%
• Stable Book Value: €32.50 per share
  (Source: Median Book Value from the past 5 years.)

This methodology estimates Van Lanschot Kempen's intrinsic value at approximately €43.96 per share. Given that the stock currently trades at a premium, with the Excess Returns model indicating it is around 19.2% overvalued, investors are pricing in optimistic future performance that is not fully supported by recent fundamentals.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Van Lanschot Kempen.

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Van Lanschot Kempen may be overvalued by 19.2%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Van Lanschot Kempen Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Van Lanschot Kempen, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a reliable way to gauge valuation. The PE ratio helps investors see how much they are paying for each euro of earnings, making it a popular measure for understanding if a stock is cheaply or richly valued relative to its own performance and that of the wider market.

Typically, a higher PE ratio can signal expectations for superior growth or lower risk compared to industry peers, while a lower PE may imply modest growth or higher perceived risk. Finding the right benchmark is key. Van Lanschot Kempen currently trades on a PE ratio of 17.58x. For comparison, the average PE across the capital markets industry is 19.58x, and peers trade at an average 18.35x. This suggests the stock is priced a little below broader sector expectations at present.

To offer more tailored insight, Simply Wall St calculates a “Fair Ratio,” which is a proprietary metric that incorporates not just industry averages and peer comparisons, but also factors in earnings growth, profit margins, market cap, and company-specific risk. In Van Lanschot Kempen’s case, the Fair Ratio is 13.35x. This personalized measure gives a more complete reflection of the company’s true prospects and risk profile, so it is much better suited than a simple industry or peer comparison.

With Van Lanschot Kempen’s actual PE ratio of 17.58x standing noticeably higher than the Fair Ratio of 13.35x, the shares look overvalued using this approach, even if the premium is not extreme.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Van Lanschot Kempen Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned there is a better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. Narratives, in investing, mean building your own story about a company by blending your outlook on its future revenue, profits, and margins with your belief about its fair value. Rather than relying only on fixed ratios or outside opinions, Narratives connect what you believe is happening at Van Lanschot Kempen to the numbers you expect and the value you assign, making your research and conviction more tangible. Narratives are quick to create and explore on the Simply Wall St Community page, where millions of investors share and compare perspectives. This helps you decide when to buy or sell by seeing how your estimated Fair Value compares to the current price. Plus, because Narratives update automatically when new information or earnings are released, your view remains up to date. For example, some investors currently project a bullish fair value of €57.0 for Van Lanschot Kempen, betting on resilient earnings and growth; others hold a more cautious outlook with a fair value of €44.5, factoring in margin pressures and risks. Narratives empower you to quickly see which story you believe, compare it to the market, and act with confidence.

Do you think there's more to the story for Van Lanschot Kempen? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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