Van Lanschot Kempen Valuation

Is VLK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VLK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VLK (€44.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€46.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VLK is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VLK?

Key metric: As VLK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VLK. This is calculated by dividing VLK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VLK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.4x
Earnings€138.87m
Market Cap€1.86b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VLK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VLK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average37.3x
CVC CVC Capital Partners
87.5x42.2%€24.6b
ALLFG Allfunds Group
44.3x27.3%€3.5b
FLOW Flow Traders
12.8x10.2%€923.2m
VALUE Value8
4.6xn/a€54.7m
VLK Van Lanschot Kempen
13.4x6.9%€1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VLK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the peer average (37.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VLK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Capital Markets Industry?

17 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VLK 13.4xIndustry Avg. 13.3xNo. of Companies38PE01224364860+
17 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VLK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the European Capital Markets industry average (13.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VLK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VLK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.4x
Fair PE Ratio15.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VLK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VLK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€44.10
€45.50
+3.2%
2.2%€46.50€44.50n/a2
Nov ’25€42.00
€45.50
+8.3%
2.2%€46.50€44.50n/a2
Oct ’25€42.50
€45.50
+7.1%
2.2%€46.50€44.50n/a2
Sep ’25€41.50
€45.50
+9.6%
2.2%€46.50€44.50n/a2
Aug ’25€39.05
€42.85
+9.7%
6.2%€45.50€40.20n/a2
Jul ’25€37.90
€39.10
+3.2%
2.8%€40.20€38.00n/a2
Jun ’25€37.60
€35.75
-4.9%
6.3%€38.00€33.50n/a2
May ’25€33.35
€34.25
+2.7%
2.2%€35.00€33.50n/a2
Apr ’25€31.50
€34.25
+8.7%
2.2%€35.00€33.50n/a2
Mar ’25€31.60
€34.25
+8.4%
2.2%€35.00€33.50n/a2
Feb ’25€27.45
€32.50
+18.4%
1.5%€33.00€32.00n/a2
Jan ’25€28.15
€35.25
+25.2%
6.4%€37.50€33.00n/a2
Dec ’24€29.30
€35.25
+20.3%
6.4%€37.50€33.00€42.452
Nov ’24€25.40
€35.25
+38.8%
6.4%€37.50€33.00€42.002
Oct ’24€25.45
€35.25
+38.5%
6.4%€37.50€33.00€42.502
Sep ’24€27.20
€35.25
+29.6%
6.4%€37.50€33.00€41.502
Aug ’24€29.90
€37.00
+23.7%
1.4%€37.50€36.50€39.052
Jul ’24€30.70
€34.75
+13.2%
7.9%€37.50€32.00€37.902

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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