ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALPEKA), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its second-quarter results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at Mex$33b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 48%, coming in at just Mex$0.18 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ALPEK. de

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ALPEK. de's eleven analysts is for revenues of Mex$138.6b in 2024. This reflects a satisfactory 7.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. ALPEK. de is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of Mex$0.80 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of Mex$132.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$0.83 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a a satisfactory to revenue, the consensus also made a minor downgrade to its earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target was unchanged at Mex$19.32, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic ALPEK. de analyst has a price target of Mex$37.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$11.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting ALPEK. de's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 16% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect ALPEK. de to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$19.32, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ALPEK. de going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for ALPEK. de (2 are concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com