ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V.

BMV:ALPEK A Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$28.5b

ALPEK. de Valuation

Is ALPEK A undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALPEK A when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALPEK A (MX$13.51) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$8.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALPEK A is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALPEK A?

Key metric: As ALPEK A is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ALPEK A. This is calculated by dividing ALPEK A's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ALPEK A's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.2x
SalesMex$132.43b
Market CapMex$28.46b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ALPEK A's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ALPEK A vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.2x
ORBIA * Orbia Advance Corporation. de
0.2x5.7%Mex$34.0b
CYDSASA A Cydsa. de
0.6x10.6%Mex$9.0b
MFRISCO A-1 Minera Frisco. de
2.2xn/aMex$21.2b
ICH B Industrias CH S. A. B. de C. V
1.9x7.6%Mex$73.4b
ALPEK A ALPEK. de
0.2x6.1%Mex$28.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ALPEK A is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (1.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ALPEK A's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Chemicals Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ALPEK A 0.2xIndustry Avg. 1.4xNo. of Companies3PS00.40.81.21.62+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ALPEK A is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the Global Chemicals industry average (1.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALPEK A's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALPEK A PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.2x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ALPEK A is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALPEK A forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentMex$13.51
Mex$20.32
+50.4%
33.4%Mex$37.00Mex$11.00n/a11
Nov ’25Mex$12.96
Mex$20.05
+54.7%
34.2%Mex$37.00Mex$11.00n/a11
Oct ’25Mex$12.60
Mex$19.50
+54.8%
35.9%Mex$37.00Mex$11.00n/a11
Sep ’25Mex$12.70
Mex$19.73
+55.3%
35.1%Mex$37.00Mex$11.00n/a11
Aug ’25Mex$12.06
Mex$19.73
+63.6%
35.1%Mex$37.00Mex$11.00n/a11
Jul ’25Mex$13.28
Mex$19.45
+46.5%
35.5%Mex$37.00Mex$11.00n/a11
Jun ’25Mex$14.64
Mex$19.55
+33.5%
35.7%Mex$37.00Mex$11.00n/a11
May ’25Mex$12.74
Mex$19.30
+51.5%
38.5%Mex$37.00Mex$11.00n/a10
Apr ’25Mex$12.44
Mex$20.28
+63.0%
32.7%Mex$37.00Mex$11.00n/a12
Mar ’25Mex$10.85
Mex$21.19
+95.3%
28.4%Mex$37.00Mex$13.00n/a12
Feb ’25Mex$11.50
Mex$23.07
+100.6%
26.6%Mex$37.00Mex$15.00n/a12
Jan ’25Mex$12.64
Mex$22.48
+77.9%
29.4%Mex$37.00Mex$14.00n/a12
Dec ’24Mex$13.00
Mex$22.98
+76.8%
26.8%Mex$37.00Mex$15.00n/a12
Nov ’24Mex$11.53
Mex$23.40
+102.9%
24.7%Mex$37.00Mex$17.00Mex$12.9612
Oct ’24Mex$14.96
Mex$25.58
+71.0%
22.1%Mex$37.00Mex$20.00Mex$12.6013
Sep ’24Mex$16.53
Mex$26.11
+58.0%
21.7%Mex$37.00Mex$20.00Mex$12.7014
Aug ’24Mex$17.47
Mex$27.49
+57.3%
20.9%Mex$37.00Mex$20.00Mex$12.0614
Jul ’24Mex$17.03
Mex$29.96
+76.0%
15.4%Mex$37.00Mex$21.00Mex$13.2814
Jun ’24Mex$17.52
Mex$30.39
+73.5%
13.5%Mex$37.00Mex$21.00Mex$14.6414
May ’24Mex$19.02
Mex$31.32
+64.7%
10.1%Mex$37.00Mex$25.00Mex$12.7414
Apr ’24Mex$20.02
Mex$31.18
+55.7%
9.9%Mex$37.00Mex$25.00Mex$12.4414
Mar ’24Mex$22.84
Mex$33.24
+45.5%
12.0%Mex$43.40Mex$28.00Mex$10.8514
Feb ’24Mex$30.65
Mex$35.41
+15.5%
10.0%Mex$43.40Mex$31.00Mex$11.5014
Jan ’24Mex$27.59
Mex$35.36
+28.2%
10.1%Mex$43.40Mex$31.00Mex$12.6414
Dec ’23Mex$27.61
Mex$35.47
+28.5%
10.4%Mex$43.40Mex$31.00Mex$13.0015
Nov ’23Mex$28.38
Mex$35.47
+25.0%
10.4%Mex$43.40Mex$31.00Mex$11.5315

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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