Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 07
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 24% to Mex$12.26. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$15.51, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 13% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Apr 24
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: Mex$0.54 loss per share (down from Mex$0.081 profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue: Mex$29.8b (down 15% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: Mex$1.12b (down Mex$1.29b from profit in 1Q 2025). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 27% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 16% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 02
Now 23% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 14% to Mex$10.91. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$14.10, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 16% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Announcement • Mar 25
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 22, 2026 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results After-Market on Apr 22, 2026 Announcement • Feb 13
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 03, 2026 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 03, 2026. Location: 1111 gomez morin avenue, carrizalejo neighborhood, san pedro garza garcia, nuevo leon, monterrey Mexico Reported Earnings • Feb 12
Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2025 results: Mex$1.32 loss per share (further deteriorated from Mex$0.36 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: Mex$126.8b (down 7.7% from FY 2024). Net loss: Mex$2.77b (loss widened 263% from FY 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 29% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Feb 11
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 5.6% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.6x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (5.6% average weekly change). Announcement • Jan 14
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 10, 2026 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results on Feb 10, 2026 New Risk • Dec 11
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 6.3% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.6x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (6.3% average weekly change). New Risk • Oct 24
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 1.6x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.6x net interest cover). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.9% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Oct 23
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: Mex$0.38 loss per share (down from Mex$0.23 profit in 3Q 2024). Revenue: Mex$31.1b (down 16% from 3Q 2024). Net loss: Mex$807.3m (down 267% from profit in 3Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 50 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Sep 26
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 21, 2025 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 21, 2025 New Risk • Sep 23
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 4.7% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.4x net interest cover). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Cash payout ratio: 120% Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.7% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Jul 25
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: Mex$0.27 loss per share (down from Mex$0.10 profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue: Mex$32.8b (flat on 2Q 2024). Net loss: Mex$572.0m (down 365% from profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 62 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Jun 24
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 22, 2025 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Jul 22, 2025 Price Target Changed • Apr 24
Price target decreased by 9.3% to Mex$15.79 Down from Mex$17.42, the current price target is an average from 12 analysts. New target price is 54% above last closing price of Mex$10.27. Stock is down 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Mex$0.91 next year compared to a net loss per share of Mex$0.36 last year. Reported Earnings • Apr 23
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: Mex$0.081 (vs Mex$0.065 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: Mex$0.081 (up from Mex$0.065 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: Mex$35.0b (up 8.3% from 1Q 2024). Net income: Mex$170.0m (up 24% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 0.5% (up from 0.4% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 64 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Apr 03
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 22, 2025 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Apr 22, 2025 Price Target Changed • Apr 01
Price target decreased by 7.8% to Mex$17.67 Down from Mex$19.17, the current price target is an average from 12 analysts. New target price is 75% above last closing price of Mex$10.07. Stock is down 21% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Mex$1.13 next year compared to a net loss per share of Mex$0.36 last year. Announcement • Mar 05
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 20, 2025 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 20, 2025. Location: ave gomez morin 1111 south, carrizalejo neighborhood, san pedro garza garcia, nuevo leon, monterrey Mexico New Risk • Feb 27
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Cash payout ratio: 120% Dividend yield: 19% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.9x net interest cover). Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Cash payout ratio: 120% Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.6% average weekly change). New Risk • Feb 19
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 0.9x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.9x net interest cover). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Announcement • Jan 31
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 18, 2025 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results on Feb 18, 2025 Price Target Changed • Dec 15
Price target decreased by 7.9% to Mex$18.92 Down from Mex$20.54, the current price target is an average from 12 analysts. New target price is 38% above last closing price of Mex$13.73. Stock is up 3.5% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Mex$0.76 next year compared to a net loss per share of Mex$5.18 last year. New Risk • Nov 06
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 4.7% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (90% net debt to equity). Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.7% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: Mex$0.23 (up from Mex$0.21 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: Mex$37.2b (up 11% from 3Q 2023). Net income: Mex$483.0m (up Mex$922.8m from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.3% (up from net loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 22%. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.2% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 76 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Oct 15
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 28, 2024 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results After-Market on Oct 28, 2024 Reported Earnings • Jul 26
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: Mex$0.10 (down from Mex$0.26 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: Mex$33.0b (down 9.0% from 2Q 2023). Net income: Mex$216.0m (down 61% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.7% (down from 1.5% in 2Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 48%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 59 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Jul 10
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 24, 2024 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Jul 24, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 06
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 24% to Mex$15.42. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$12.72, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.9% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Reported Earnings • Apr 24
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: Mex$0.065 (vs Mex$0.043 loss in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: Mex$0.065 (up from Mex$0.043 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: Mex$32.3b (down 16% from 1Q 2023). Net income: Mex$137.0m (up Mex$228.4m from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.4% (up from net loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 60% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 19% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Apr 09
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 23, 2024 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Apr 23, 2024 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 06
Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 9.2% to Mex$13.22. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$10.99, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 12% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. New Risk • Feb 23
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.9x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.9x net interest cover). Minor Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings (371% payout ratio). Announcement • Feb 16
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 06, 2024 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 06, 2024, at 10:15 Central Standard Time. Location: Avenida Gómez Morín No. 1111 Sur, Colonia Carrizalejo, San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León Nuevo Leon Mexico Agenda: To consider the Presentation and, as the case may be, approval of the reports referred to in Article 28, section IV, of the Mexican Securities Market Law, relating to the fiscal year 2023; to Proposal on the allocation of the income statement for the fiscal year 2023, which includes the determination of the maximum amount of funds that may be used to purchase the Company’s own stock; to Election of the members of the Board of Directors, as well as the Chairman of the Audit and Corporate Governance Committee; determination of their compensation and related agreements; to Appointment of delegates; to Reading and, as the case may be, approval of the Minutes of the Meeting; and to consider other matters if any. Announcement • Jan 31
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 20, 2024 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results on Feb 20, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Nov 29
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from Mex$0.725 to Mex$0.634 per share. Revenue forecast steady at Mex$142.3b. Net income forecast to grow 392% next year vs 54% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Mexico. Consensus price target of Mex$22.98 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at Mex$13.53 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 10
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 20% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from Mex$0.753 to Mex$0.603 per share. Revenue forecast steady at Mex$143.2b. Net income forecast to grow 455% next year vs 32% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Mexico. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Mex$22.80. Share price was steady at Mex$13.01 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 30
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 50% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from Mex$1.50 to Mex$0.753 per share. Revenue forecast steady at Mex$144.9b. Net income forecast to grow 554% next year vs 32% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Mexico. Consensus price target down from Mex$25.47 to Mex$23.53. Share price fell 27% to Mex$10.12 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 30
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 27% After last week's 27% share price decline to Mex$10.12, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Chemicals industry globally. Total loss to shareholders of 16% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Mex$16.42 per share. New Risk • Oct 27
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 4.7% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (57% net debt to equity). Dividend is not well covered by earnings (368% payout ratio). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.7% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.5% net profit margin). Price Target Changed • Oct 25
Price target decreased by 7.6% to Mex$23.53 Down from Mex$25.47, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 89% above last closing price of Mex$12.47. Stock is down 54% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Mex$0.75 for next year compared to Mex$6.52 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 24
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: Mex$0.21 loss per share (down from Mex$1.07 profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue: Mex$33.4b (down 44% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: Mex$439.0m (down 120% from profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Oct 10
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 23, 2023 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Oct 23, 2023 Major Estimate Revision • Sep 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from Mex$143.5b to Mex$142.0b. EPS estimate also fell from Mex$1.59 per share to Mex$1.42 per share. Net income forecast to grow 18% next year vs 31% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Mexico. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Mex$26.11. Share price was steady at Mex$16.53 over the past week. New Risk • Aug 14
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 1.9% Last year net profit margin: 7.1% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (63% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.9% net profit margin). Major Estimate Revision • Aug 13
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from Mex$1.77 to Mex$1.59 per share. Revenue forecast steady at Mex$145.2b. Net income forecast to grow 27% next year vs 25% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Mexico. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Mex$26.36. Share price was steady at Mex$17.05 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 03
Price target decreased by 8.0% to Mex$26.44 Down from Mex$28.75, the current price target is an average from 14 analysts. New target price is 51% above last closing price of Mex$17.48. Stock is down 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Mex$1.77 for next year compared to Mex$6.52 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 28
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from Mex$157.3b to Mex$150.2b. EPS estimate rose from Mex$2.32 to Mex$2.63. Net income forecast to shrink 46% next year vs 23% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Mexico . Consensus price target down from Mex$29.68 to Mex$28.06. Share price was steady at Mex$17.29 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 28
Second quarter 2023 earnings released Second quarter 2023 results: Revenue: Mex$36.3b (down 36% from 2Q 2022). Net income: Mex$555.0m (down 91% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 11% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Chemicals industry in South America are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 39% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jul 07
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Jul 26, 2023 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results at 11:30 AM, Central Standard Time on Jul 26, 2023 Major Estimate Revision • May 10
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from Mex$2.73 to Mex$2.42. Revenue forecast unchanged from Mex$163.8b at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 33% next year vs 31% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Mexico . Consensus price target reaffirmed at Mex$30.61. Share price was steady at Mex$19.28 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 28
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2023 results: Mex$0.043 loss per share (down from Mex$2.23 profit in 1Q 2022). Revenue: Mex$38.6b (down 19% from 1Q 2022). Net loss: Mex$91.0m (down 102% from profit in 1Q 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Chemicals industry in South America are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 36% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 29
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from Mex$3.29 to Mex$2.86 per share. Revenue forecast steady at Mex$172.8b. Net income forecast to shrink 55% next year vs 20% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Mexico . Consensus price target down from Mex$31.96 to Mex$31.32. Share price fell 4.7% to Mex$20.68 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 24
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from Mex$194.4b to Mex$174.4b. EPS estimate fell from Mex$4.14 to Mex$3.92 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 38% next year vs 6.5% decline forecast for Chemicals industry in Mexico. Consensus price target down from Mex$35.20 to Mex$33.24. Share price fell 6.1% to Mex$22.24 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Feb 18
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 16%. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$30.84, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 24% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 39%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 7.4% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 29% per annum over the same time period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 17
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to Mex$23.68, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Chemicals industry in South America. Total returns to shareholders of 101% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at Mex$23.26 per share. Announcement • Feb 01
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Feb 15, 2023 ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q4, 2022 results on Feb 15, 2023 Board Change • Nov 16
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 3 experienced directors. 8 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Jaime Zabludovsky Kuper was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Oct 22
Third quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: Mex$1.07 (up from Mex$1.05 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: Mex$59.8b (up 44% from 3Q 2021). Net income: Mex$2.25b (up 1.2% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 3.8% (down from 5.3% in 3Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 17%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 37%. Revenue is expected to fall by 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 1.9% decline forecast for the Chemicals industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Aug 05
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 2.1%. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$34.30, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 11%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 4.4% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 37% per annum over the same time period. 