Earnings Miss: ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. Missed EPS And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALPEKA) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to Mex$9.57 in the past week. Revenues fell 5.2% short of expectations, at Mex$33b. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with ALPEK. de reporting a statutory loss of Mex$5.03 per share, whereas the analysts had previously modelled a profit in this period. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from ALPEK. de's ten analysts is for revenues of Mex$145.3b in 2025. This would reflect an okay 3.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. ALPEK. de is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of Mex$0.93 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of Mex$142.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$0.85 in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

See our latest analysis for ALPEK. de

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of Mex$15.00, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on ALPEK. de, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at Mex$19.00 and the most bearish at Mex$12.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that ALPEK. de's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ALPEK. de is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around ALPEK. de's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ALPEK. de going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for ALPEK. de you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.